How many of you plan to trade NFP tomorrow?

[TalonD]

at the risk of being redundant... what's the research project? little late now eh? Yeah, I know, you're researching how many people will respond to a research project...

[tom82]

I was thinking about trading the NFP, though we had a storm and got blacked out for 40 or 50mins so I abstained as I could not finish my research and make a decision.
I did however watch the reaction when it was announced.

[mastergunner99]

Originally Posted by R Carter

Mastergunner99

Always a pleasure to read an in depth post outlining the considered reasoning behind the entry to a trade. Especially one as long as that. Congrats on a successful outcome!

If you had a SSD and RSI up on the day chart you might have been able to hedge those lost pips on that retrace against your longer term position. Removing it after the retrace stalled. Would only have cost the spread to hedge that position and saved you a few hundered pips in the process.

Just a thought? As I notice the SSD and RSI spiked up markedly.

Too many indicators for my taste. Trend-lines, horizontal lines, and Fibonacci is all I've been using lately. I used to use RSI , but decided I no longer really had a use for it other than to spot divergence.

But to solve the issue of the retracement, I wait out the retracement and add to my position as price continues downward. That way when I close out, my risk reward is greater than when I first entered the market.

[tom82]

Originally Posted by tom82

I was thinking about trading the NFP, though we had a storm and got blacked out for 40 or 50mins so I abstained as I could not finish my research and make a decision.
I did however watch the reaction when it was announced.

Could have went short on the audusd and then went long on it.
Thought I should stay out though.

[R Carter]

Originally Posted by mastergunner99

Too many indicators for my taste.

But to solve the issue of the retracement, I wait out the retracement and add to my position as price continues downward. That way when I close out, my risk reward is greater than when I first entered the market.

This sounds like a good strategy Mastergunner and most times I can see where this would pay off. The only problem I can see with using this aproach is where the 'retrace' in fact no longer becomes a retrace but the new trend.

Obviously you can close out your existing position at BE or plus 'X' pips. But a problem might occur where you have waited out the retrace and spotted a turn (in this case) back down, added to your position only to find the original retrace is in fact a trend and continues up doubling your original loss.

Besides SSD and RSI there are one or two other indicators that could help eliminate this, a particular favourite of mine being Zigzag.

[mastergunner99]

Originally Posted by R Carter

This sounds like a good strategy Mastergunner and most times I can see where this would pay off. The only problem I can see with using this aproach is where the 'retrace' in fact no longer becomes a retrace but the new trend.

Obviously you can close out your existing position at BE or plus 'X' pips. But a problem might occur where you have waited out the retrace and spotted a turn (in this case) back down, added to your position only to find the original retrace is in fact a trend and continues up doubling your original loss.

Besides SSD and RSI there are one or two other indicators that could help eliminate this, a particular favourite of mine being Zigzag.

Sure that can happen. However. such problems are generally eliminated using proper money management.

Price action also lets you know what's happening. A bounce off the golden ratio coupled with a trendline break as well as a strong candlestick pattern is a good indication of the end of a retracement and the continuation of the previous trend.

Lastly, there is no claim this is any form of the Holy Grail. However, in the method I trade, the risk reward is always in my favor, thus allowing me to sustain such loses and remain profitable.

[R Carter]

Mastergunner99

I can see I'm trying to teach 'my Grandmother to suck eggs' here!

You've obviously got it covered... but worth pointing out possible problems in this forum for the noob's.

[mastergunner99]

Originally Posted by R Carter

Mastergunner99

I can see I'm trying to teach 'my Grandmother to suck eggs' here!

You've obviously got it covered... but worth pointing out possible problems in this forum for the noob's.

I understand that. Which is why I retorted with a solution to the problem you posed.

Also stop loss movement is essential as well when I add to my current position. The first order is moved to break even. So if trade closes at a loss I have maintained generally the same initial risk reward. However, if trade moves forward I ultimately increased my risk/reward.