Dialog with a Rookie?

How can/Why is the price be going against me more than 50% of the time?

its frustrating huh? The reality is that price move almost breathes. The key thing is to allow enough of a move against you for it to move back in the other direction.

You need a system or stratagy that gives good entries and you need to have confidence in it.

I know from experience what you are feeling it is as if you are psychic and if you buy price drops and if you sell price climbs.

Another thing to do is watch price you can tell who has the better momentum
if price seems like it is moving stronger one way or another than don’t ignore that. Also if you are new I would strongly advice you to learn support and resistance. It is at these levels that you can expect price to reverse direction.

keep studying/practicing you will get it.

That’s funny…that’s the way I think of it too…lol

:smiley:

It’s alive. :eek:

I’m testing everything including working the 4pm to 4:20pm open in Tokyo. :wink:

Still looking for the perfect combination using the timeframe, the ticker and my indicators of s/r/candlesticks.

Right now I am testing the 5-minute TF. Helps me see the trend so I can allow the price to fluctuate (breathe).

It’s similar to golf in that I am following through. After I close a buy/sell I look to see what happens and traceback to learn from it.

There’s no such thing as “the perfect combination” of anything, but there’s good enough to be profitable.

Right now I am testing the 5-minute TF. Helps me see the trend so I can allow the price to fluctuate (breathe).

You are most definitely not seeing any “trends” if you’re looking at the 5 minute chart. At that timeframe you are getting increasingly close to near-random price action.

Yes, I’ve decided to try the longer TFs and in papertesting they show substantial pip gains.

But I think it’s good for newbies to try out the 5-second and other shorter TFs, and to even use the price ticker only; in order to get a better feel for price movement in general.

Learning to work the faster price movements may enhance the ability to recognize the patterns in the longer TFs.

First of all whatever method you use, it has to have a way to determine the overall larger trend, if in fact there is a trend, or if price is in a range.

Price is either trending or range bound. (moving more or less sideways) You have to trade both a little different. Even in a trend price doesn’t just move long or short, it will as others has said, “breath.”

But, for example, you’ve determined that the overall trend is long, then logically you’d look for a good long entrance. For instance after a retrace to the short side of a channel you might have drawn or after a fib boune or a bounce of resistance lines you’ve drawn.

Also, time frame is a big factor. If you are trading small time frames and trying to pinpoint exactly when price will go long or short really nicely, well…you are going to get kicked in jimmy quite a lot.

Which is why I like trading daily candles. Daily candles are more dependable as far as determining the overall direction and having candles patterns or even some indicator give you an clearer indication of the overall trend or lack thereof.

Daily candles also allow for larger stop losses and take profits. So, it’s less likely you’ll be stopped out because you have a silly 20 pip SL because you are trading off the 15m timeframe. Trading larger time frames eliminates a lot of the noise or whip. Though you have to not be the nervous type and get scared when you get into a larger drawdown. Most of my trades are for +100 pips or more of gain. It’s not unusual for my drawdown to go to -50 pips or more before hitting my TP. Just don’t overleverage.

P.S. price doesn’t go against you. Thats a bad way to think. It puts in place a mindset that the market is messing with you or that your broker or something is purposely screwing your trade. The market goes where it goes, it doesn’t care if it’s with you are against you. It’s your job to find where the market is most likely to go, find a decent entrance and let it take you there.

I’d have to be pretty paranoid to think the broker was messing with me on the demo. :stuck_out_tongue:

I appreciate all the good advice, and the best advice I’ve taken from my forum reading is to develop one’s own style and methodology, with clear rules for self-survival.

You don’t get a feel for anything at 5-second intervals. That is price indications being adjusted by market makers trying to find the volume. It has nothing to do with price patterns or trends or anything else.

“How can/Why is the price be going against me more than 50% of the time?”

If (Heaven forbid) you were to get shot, let’s say in the leg, would you sit there and wonder why you got shot? Or would you concentrate on stopping the bleeding?
If (Heaven forbid) your trade goes against you, it might be better have a stop-loss in place than an understanding of why things turned out so badly.

Here’s what people don’t understand so well:

The price was never MEANT to go in your direction, nor is it MEANT to go in any direction so to say. It does because it is an open market, many many factors affect it’s movement. Noone sees the future, we simply use tools to make educated assumptions on price and hope our analysis is correct. If not, we refine to make it correct and thus, hopefully profitable in the future.

Just how I see things…

Hey, that sounds interesting, what does it mean? Can you explain that in a little more detaiL ?

How do market makers (and exchanges where applicable) make their money? From doing as much transactional volume as possible. They are looking to grab the spread. The more trades they do the more profit they make by getting that spread. That being the case, it behooves them to adjust their prices to the levels where they perceive the market as being most interested to trade. (They also adjust prices if their position is unbalanced to try to balance it out, but that’s not really any different in final impact).