Multi-Time Frame Trend Trading - Page 157
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  1. #1561
    NorwegianBlue's Avatar
    NorwegianBlue is offline Junior Member
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    If you want to try a trend-line break trade right now, check out GBP/JPY H4. Easy line to draw underneath the retrace long. According to Grav's rule, enter short when a full candle body closes below the line.

  2. #1562
    fartist is offline Senior Member
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    Graviton, below is a chart attached on a "so called" trend line break fake out i had.



    Clearly we have 2 trendlines here, is the first one on the left valid? Or should we actually draw the trendline from the earlier point, meaning the trendline on the right?

    I took the trendline break on the left one, but i got stopped out. I see it happening quite often, but then again that was during the news.

    So my qns would be, is my first trendline drawn on the left valid?
    Upon breaking it went upwards again forming a new low. Thus a 2nd trendline could now be drawn.

    So how do i go about such situations?

    And also, you mention upon a close of candle below the retracement line you will find an entry in the 15mins.

    When you look down into the 15mins TF, it most prob would be in a sausage or bubble, so you enter per break out rules? Or do you wait for a slight retracement and get an entry?

    These are some of the problems i faced now. Sometimes the trendline gets broken, however i wait for a retracement move, sometimes it never comes and i missed almost the entire move.

    And i recalled ytd you took long AJ on the 1 hr cbl. May i know the reason for it? I couldn't think of any, besides that the long wick provides a very good support level since way back.
    Last edited by fartist; 08-25-2010 at 11:55 PM.

  3. #1563
    fartist is offline Senior Member
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    Below is the chart of GJ that nb mentioned, clear retracement we're having right now. So upon a 4hr candle close we would find an entry.



    So grav, the time when you enter those retracement trendlines break would be when there is no news coming out, thus ensuring the break is more valid. Rather than a simple fake out that forms really long wicks. (Hate to see those!)

    Clear examples would be the 4HR UJ charts now.

    Okay some observations i had, the steeper the trendline, like the 1 oclock, higher chance it will break and not fall but rather range for a while. Before finally breaking or bounce back.

    Last edited by fartist; 08-26-2010 at 01:03 AM.

  4. #1564
    Graviton is offline FX-Men Honorary Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fartist View Post
    Graviton, below is a chart attached on a "so called" trend line break fake out i had.



    Clearly we have 2 trendlines here, is the first one on the left valid? Or should we actually draw the trendline from the earlier point, meaning the trendline on the right?

    I took the trendline break on the left one, but i got stopped out. I see it happening quite often, but then again that was during the news.

    I'd have to see the lower timeframe to see these trend lines more clearly. They are barely little blips on this scale. If you are looking at retracements on the 4H chart, drop down to the 1H chart to see them more clearly, unless they are very long ones that show up clearly on the 4H chart. This time frame is ok to see the longer trend channel you've drawn in, but it's too compressed to see the detail of the retracements within that channel. If you enter only after the full body of a candle is below the trendline, you do not get stopped out. If you entered earier, yes, that long spike wick will probably stop you out. I imagine that long wick is the result of news. Better to not trade during news if possible.



    So my qns would be, is my first trendline drawn on the left valid?
    Upon breaking it went upwards again forming a new low. Thus a 2nd trendline could now be drawn. Either trendline could be valid, or not. I probably would have drawn the first one from the earlier point, but it only had two touches early on, so it's not to meaningful. I would have drawn the second one later too. So I believe the one you called second would have really been drawn first from the earlier point, but with only two touches, it wouldn't be considered valid until it was touched a third time much later.



    So how do i go about such situations?

    Yes, they are both valid, but one, the one generated by the earlier candle, only has two touches in the begining. It gets a third touch, but that's much later. Trade what you see. But I can hardly see anything on this compressed scale. I wouldn't pay much attention to a trendline with only two touches. It's a maybe trendline and needs a third touch to validate it.

    And also, you mention upon a close of candle below the retracement line you will find an entry in the 15mins.

    When you look down into the 15mins TF, it most prob would be in a sausage or bubble, so you enter per break out rules? Or do you wait for a slight retracement and get an entry?

    For a 4H entry, I'd want to see a 15M retracement and then enter at the end of it with price starting to move in my direction to enter. That's an ideal situation. I won't always get it and will sometimes just enter on momentum, or any other valid lower TF signals, like a valid breakout or cbl. That's riskier and it's a judgment call.

    These are some of the problems i faced now. Sometimes the trendline gets broken, however i wait for a retracement move, sometimes it never comes and i missed almost the entire move.

    And i recalled ytd you took long AJ on the 1 hr cbl. May i know the reason for it? I couldn't think of any, besides that the long wick provides a very good support level since way back.
    I think you or I one mistyped. I only had one aj trade and that was entered with Nathan on a 1H CBL.

  5. #1565
    Graviton is offline FX-Men Honorary Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fartist View Post
    Below is the chart of GJ that nb mentioned, clear retracement we're having right now. So upon a 4hr candle close we would find an entry.



    So grav, the time when you enter those retracement trendlines break would be when there is no news coming out, thus ensuring the break is more valid. Rather than a simple fake out that forms really long wicks. (Hate to see those!)

    Clear examples would be the 4HR UJ charts now.

    Okay some observations i had, the steeper the trendline, like the 1 oclock, higher chance it will break and not fall but rather range for a while. Before finally breaking or bounce back.

    No I don't want to enter right before a news announcment. Yes, many say steep trendlines have short lifespans. It may be true, though it doesn't enter into my trading.

  6. #1566
    fartist is offline Senior Member
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    Ok thanks for sharing grav! I think with more practise i'll get the hang of it. Seriously, it looks easy but when you actually try it, there's so many tiny details to take into consideration!

    No wonder advertising EA and bots are so easy, cus everything looks easy!

    And also, as we can see the retracement bouncing off the trendline on the 4hr beautifully, i realised looking down into lower TF, like 30mins we could actually get good cbl entries to go long.

    Do you?

    The retracement trendline on uj and ej seems to break and not break again!
    Last edited by fartist; 08-27-2010 at 01:35 AM.

  7. #1567
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    NeedyPips is offline Newbie
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    Default Toss it away?

    Quote Originally Posted by Graviton View Post
    Yes, these crosses can be nasty.
    Monthly-agreed. If it goes into a squeeze expect a breakout, but which way? We can't tell. We have to wait and let the market tell us.

    ~ snip ~

    These pictures of possible futures we create in our heads and write down in our journals are the treasure we hunt. If the picture works out, we'll make lots of pips. If it doesn't. We'll toss it away like the lie that is was proved to be.
    Hello Graviton,

    Please let me make several points and ask a question.

    1> Thank you so much for all you are doing.

    2> I just caught up with Tymens thread but wanted to finish it before joining yours, quite absorbing that was! This already appears to me to be the same. I mean as for absorbing! I seems you are more Macro and he more Micro; the perfect compliment.

    3> I'll not much disturb the current discussion and will catch up soon.

    4> I will learn how to keep a proper journal; I currently have date, win/loss & balance on a spreadsheet.

    Q> Your post details a lot of work to learn that lie. Now you know the truth. Why 'toss it'? Surely the journal would retain that truth.

    I suppose in my mind I have answered that Q, at least for my journal. But, I will learn more about journals.

    At least I got to say Hi and let you know I am here.

    Needy

  8. #1568
    Aserat is offline Newbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeedyPips View Post
    "I seems you are more Macro and he more Micro; the perfect compliment."
    I would say on the contrary

    Welcome Needypips, sign up on our chat... Graviton spends a lot of time there teaching and live trading with us!

    bolldna.com (can't post links...)

  9. #1569
    madpipa is offline Newbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Graviton View Post
    Lots of folks ask where I get my info on Forex markets. I use many sources, but here is a good one:
    Thanks Grav. I just spent 2 hours looking at a few sites gleaming fundamental info for next week. I thought I would have a break & catch up with reading your & Tymen's threads. Now I can add this site to the others & check out where things will go next week. It is also interesting to see differing opinions on the same information.

    I also checked the trades you mentioned above. With hindsight & your clear explanation of what to look for I can't believe I could miss something so obvious!! I am printing those 2 posts with accompanying charts and putting them beside my computer so I can study them & look for similar layouts in the current charts.

    Your an inspiration to many would-be traders. THANKS!

  10. #1570
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    execellent advise as always graviton. i have been told to look at aussie/usd this monday even though i will not be around because it is bank holiday monday. looking forward to trading on tuesday!!!

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