Multi-Time Frame Trend Trading

OK. I’m going to add EURJPY to my list. I’ll just have to watch and be sure that I’m not taking opposite positions whenever I have multiple positions (something that has rarely happened to me).

As you say, a few trades per day …or …even a few profitable trades per week would satisfy my goals.

re: forcing. AGREED!! Don’t do it.

re: USDJPY…Looking for an entry around 93.90 (basis - H1)?

re: closing a pair that’s “not performing.” Hmmm…Could use some clarification here. What little I have learned suggests that one “should” let a trade run to either the profit target set when the trade was entered OR to the originally enetered Stop. The argument being that IF your analysis was correct you don’t change parameters in the middle of the trade. Nonetheless, your idea of closing a trade if it’s not performing raises an interesting point. Given an initial set of conditions (T1 and SL) how do you determine “non-performance” as long as PA is within that range?

Many thanks, once again, for all that you are doing to help us in this learning process.

Graviton, Here is my feeble attempt to analyze multiple time frames. This is EUR/JPY.

Monthly shows clear downtrend however appears to be entering a squeeze.
Weekly still shows downtrend but may be leveling somewhat.
Daily shows slight uptrend with very bullish candle crossing the mid BB.
4h appears to be trumpeting with a hanging man close.
1 Hr also has a hanging man close with the lower BB contracting.
30 M…don’t know waht to make of.

So…I don’t know exactly why but I think the analysis tells me that this pair is going to go up in the short term. Please feel free to rip me on this. Won’t hurt my feelings.

Good question. The simplest thing is just to stay with the system as described and either you make a ton of profits or it stops out. Having diversified among 5 pairs, if our analysis is right on only 3 of the 5 we will do very well indeed, in the range of 100 to 200 pips per day with very few losing days and hardly ever a losing week.

The problem with deviating from the system is where does that deviation stop? I think the only reason we can use to justify deviating from the system is the most fundamental rule that, “Trading capital is sacred”. Say our entry requires an entry with an unusually wide stop. For my system that would be anything over 20 pips.
First of all, I would say, that’s a bad entry. Don’t take it. If you are patient and your analysis was correct, you will get a better entry. If your analysis was incorrect, you will have saved yourself 20 pips of valuable trading capital. But let’s suppose you are in, you have three pairs performing very well, one near BE and this one drifting down over a long period of time so now it’s down 10 pips including spread. This is not a good trade, but once you are in a trade your analytical powers drop to that of a Neanderthal. What to do?

In my system you have two choices, stay in the trade until it stops out, or err on the side of preserving capital and closing it early. Either choice is acceptable in my system, since if we are going to make a mistake it must always be on the side of protecting our sacred trading capital. I do encourage some flexibility in trading systems, but only to that extent. So if you are having a bad day and have a few that are doing this to you, probably due to some new fundamental news that has come out that you couldn’t anticipate, then it’s not unreasonable to close one or two of the worst performers to further limit downside risk to your trading capital.

But in the end, you are very correct. In the vast majority of cases that news will be digested by the market and it will come roaring back, only to find you aren’t there when it does. This known error is the only one allowed, since protecting our sacred trading capital is a prime directive that can override any other rule or analysis. After you miss a few roaring comebacks, you’ll be very cautious about using this allowed and known error. But it’s always there for you. You can always close any trade any time in the name of protecting your sacred trading capital. If you think this is foolish, to allow a known error in the system, you can remove from your version. That is to say, removing it feels bad emotionally, so that is probably good. Your choice.

1 Like

Last week I had USDJPY screaming straight up and EURUSD screaming up at the same time. That’s the same as buying the EUR/JPY cross. But I understand your point. You have to do what you think is right analyzed in the clear light of when you are not in a trade. I’m with you 100% either way.

Yes, these crosses can be nasty.
Monthly-agreed. If it goes into a squeeze expect a breakout, but which way? We can’t tell. We have to wait and let the market tell us.

Weekly-agreed, this leveling is causing the squeeze to form in the monthly.

Daily-Yes, very bullish last candle. causing the leveling on the weekly. Really some good price action up. Yes, trend is up.

H4-Yes, we like trumpets. The hanging man probably caused by late Friday close out action. I was one of the guys taking profits there. I’ll see when I get to the H1. Trend is flat. When you have flat trend, look to the time frame above you for a clue, which is up and bullish daily.

H1- Yes, trend is up. The late Friday close out action is clear. The contraction of the opposite BB along with a price pull back off the top BB is screaming warning, we may be headed down from here. But, I can’t trade this down as I would like because the trend is up and the higher time frames are generally up.

30M - just a close up of the H1 action above, PA down, trend up. This is where we start looking for a good retracement entry. If PA moves down to the mid bb and turns to resume trend, we will probably have a good retracement entry on a lower TF. Almost all our entries will be made off a retracement off the main trend, so that’s what we are always looking for.

15M- Going on down a bit to see if it confirms my search for a good retracement entry. Oh yes, into a squeeze. Watch for a bounce off the lower BB for entry. That bounce will originate at lower TF’s and filter upward to this 15M chart.

5M- Nothing to see here yet, but if M15 is going to give us an entry, it has to come through here.

1M- This is where our entry will start forming. Well actually, it will form in the tick chart and this is where we will see it first, probably in the form of a bb bounce off the lower bb and an O-O or O-BB move up.

This is how we tell the future of the M15 retracement entry we are looking for. We build this pretty picture in our head of what we expect to see. If the trade follows that picture, we take it. If it doesn’t we don’t.

The purpose of this exercise is a treasure hunt. We are looking for trade set-ups using out multi-time frame analysis. If we find one, as we did in this case, we put it in our journal and watch it to see if the picture plays out as we envisioned.

If we can’t find a trade set-up, we ask ourselves, what has to happen to give me a trade-setup. What else could happen? Then we put those possibilities in our journal and watch for them. Almost always there is something that can somehow happen that will give us a trade set-up.

These pictures of possible futures we create in our heads and write down in our journals are the treasure we hunt. If the picture works out, we’ll make lots of pips. If it doesn’t. We’ll toss it away like the lie that is was proved to be.

We do this for each pair. All that’s left to do then is go collect our pips like a farmer bringing in his crop.

This gets much easier the more times you do it. But never forget, it is not just an exercise in analysis. We are hunting the treasure of those pretty pictures of possible futures. Don’t give up until you find one, or more!

1 Like

I obviously have a lot to learn…

The daily has a single bullish candle the top of which is closing in on a down trend line. Is the “up trend” because of the trend which could be drawn connecting the lows from about 21 Feb?

H4 trend is flat? There are three very strong bullish candles preceding the one (in my case) or two (in the charts shown) small “uncertain” candles for Friday’s close. Why is D up but H4 flat?

H1 is up? Sure seems that way, based on the action over the past 10 days or so but the last 5 have been flat. With five “uncertain candles” for the past five days, why isn’t this trend flat?

Again, I say that I obviously still have much to learn.

Thanks for any help.

hello all,

I have analyzed five pairs usd/chf, usd/cad, eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, eur/gbp

Graviton, when I read your analysis of the pairs it looked very simple. But now I see that everything is not so simple. Sometimes it’s hard to determine the trend direction on monthly charts.
For me its difficult to recognize the entry points.

Here’s something that I done (as always soory for my english)

USD/CHF
Monthly, there is long engulfing pattern in the end of 2009,
Price still below MBB. It looks like PA is going up, but PA is kind flatly a bit

Weekly uptrend, down trendline that that runs from march 2009 has been broken in Junyary.

is daily chart flat? There is current extreme retracement candle.

4H, uptrend, PA is below MBB
1H – downtrend, BB is shaped as sausage
30M uptrend, BB sausage, Price is above MBB
10M, uptrend, the price is in BBe squeeze

It is slippery.

USD/CAD
Difficult for me to say is it uptrend or downtrend? But the PA is going down. And pulling MBB down
Weekly is in strong downtrend
Daily downtrend but its possible PA reversal

4H, downtrend, PA below MBB
1H PA is in the squeeze BB, below MBB, extreme candle produced CBL line for short
30M, Difficult for me to say. is it uptrend or downtrend?
10M downtrend, PA below MBB
we can go short

EUR/JPY

Montlhy downtrend,
Weekly, downtrend down trend line that that runs from October 2009 hasnt been broken yet.
There is uptrend on daily chart since march 2010 and the price is in Symmetrical Triangle
4H: uptrend, we have extreme candle and good chance for the price retracement.

1Н uptrend, opposite BB contracts,
30 Min chart is in strong uptrend.
I wouldnt trade this pair

GBP/JPY
Montly downtrend, there is PA retracement
Weekly, I drew downtrend line that has been run from august 2009, it has been broken 3-4 weeks ago.
Daily chart: PA is continue to rise after 50% of retracement.
4H: PA is very closed (like 50 pips) to the Resistant line
1H, 30M: there is strong uptrend,
15 Min : PA in BB squeeze, its where the trend usually starts. The problem is will it go for retracement or it will continue to rise. I think if the price will go down just for a small retrasement and it then will rise
I would definitely choose this pair to trade long today.

EUR/GBP
Monthly: uptrend, but currently PA on its way down
Weekly: PA close to support line. MBB is going down
Daily: I can see long engulfing pattern, that formed last Friday/
4H, H1: PA bounced off the Resistant line, MBB is going down
15M:MBB is going down, PA is below MBB, I’ll wait to enter short or long until
resistant level 0.8695 or support level 0.8715 is broken

can someone please submit 5M chart of usd/jpy I would like to see what line we are waiting to be broken.

FYI, I added some more description above to my discussion of the EURJPY above, so if you read it earlier, you might want to go back and read the ending of the story :slight_smile:

Oh! I left this part out! LOL, my mistake. For a very quick read of the trend, I use the direction of the mid BB. That way I can just flash a screen up and pick up a trend reading. See if this works better doing it that way.

1 Like

It’s only this hard the first time. After that, it get’s a little easier each time you do it. After a month or two, you will probably be better than I am. I won’t be satisfied till that’s the case. I’ll go through all your hard work and comment, though you can already see my comments above on Eur/Jpy :slight_smile:

Just to make the point once again, this is analysis with a purpose. It has a very definite direction. We know just what we are looking for. We are looking for trade set-ups. Either one that exists now, or one that could possibly exist in the future if something changes. Don’t give up until you find one. If you can’t find one, ask yourself, what is the easiest thing that could change to give me one? Carry on.

1 Like

Here are my comments on your analysis:

USD/CHF
Monthly, there is long engulfing pattern in the end of 2009,
Price still below MBB. It looks like PA is going up, but PA is kind flatly a bit - Agreed

Weekly uptrend, down trendline that that runs from march 2009 has been broken in Junyary.- Agreed, good catch of that broken downtrend line

is daily chart flat? There is current extreme retracement candle. – close to flat, a very slight uptrend

4H, uptrend, PA is below MBB –yes, if PA crosses to the bottom bb, we may have a retracement against the trend. Usually the kind of entry we look for. Put a watch on this.

1H – downtrend, BB is shaped as sausage-PA just pulled off bottom bb. Contraction of upper BB. 4H in uptrend above so ok to trade by all rules. Note lower trends also in uptrend, so uptrends all around, which is also good. THIS IS AN ENTRY!! So drop down to 5M, if it is falling let it fall until it bounces off the bottom BB. Check if the 10M or 15M is falling, if so, wait till it turns up to enter. If not, enter.

30M uptrend, BB sausage, Price is above MBB-Agreed
10M, uptrend, the price is in BBe squeeze-Agreed

It is slippery.

USD/CAD
Difficult for me to say is it uptrend or downtrend? But the PA is going down. And pulling MBB down,- yes, with strong PA down, I’d call it a downtrend.
Weekly is in strong downtrend-yes
Daily downtrend but its possible PA reversal –with downtrends above and below, reversal unlikely

4H, downtrend, PA below MBB PA -yes

1H PA is in the squeeze BB, below MBB, extreme candle produced CBL line for short-for sure we want to go short, but no good entry yet.
30M, Difficult for me to say. is it uptrend or downtrend? –flat trend with strong down PA
10M downtrend, PA below MBB
we can go short
Well, everything is down. We want to get in on this with a short. But I don’t see a good entry. We will wait patiently for at least a 5M retracement entry. Flag this one for watch,
EUR/JPY
See my previous comments on this one. That 1H chart BB prevents a comfortable up entry. If it weren’t for the up trends above and below, this would be a perfect Tymen BB DNA down entry. I won’t trade against Tymen on this one. I’ll wait for that 1H chart to change shape or confirmation of down entry on lower TF’s, mainly the 15M chart.
Montlhy downtrend,
Weekly, downtrend down trend line that that runs from October 2009 hasnt been broken yet.
There is uptrend on daily chart since march 2010 and the price is in Symmetrical Triangle
4H: uptrend, we have extreme candle and good chance for the price retracement.

1Н uptrend, opposite BB contracts,
30 Min chart is in strong uptrend.
I wouldnt trade this pair

GBP/JPY
Montly downtrend, there is PA retracement
Weekly, I drew downtrend line that has been run from august 2009, it has been broken 3-4 weeks ago.
Daily chart: PA is continue to rise after 50% of retracement.
4H: PA is very closed (like 50 pips) to the Resistant line
1H, 30M: there is strong uptrend,
15 Min : PA in BB squeeze, its where the trend usually starts. The problem is will it go for retracement or it will continue to rise.
I would definitely choose this pair to trade long today.-Maybe, but look at the 1H chart PA pulling away from upper BB, lower BB contracting. If this is just a retracement, it’s good entry, but wait to make sure it’s not O-O Top BB to bottom BB action that would stop you out. Agreed that 15M chart will tell you first so watch that to signal a trade.

EUR/GBP
Monthly: uptrend, but currently PA on its way down
Weekly: PA close to support line. MBB is going down
Daily: I can see long engulfing pattern, that formed last Friday/
4H, H1: PA bounced off the Resistant line, MBB is going down
15M:MBB is going down, PA is below MBB, I’ll wait to enter short or long until
resistant level 0.8695 or support level 0.8715 is broken-It’s one of those messy cross pairs. We have an entry short here on the 1H chart, but the SL is too wide. Wait for a break down on the M15 and enter short out of a M15 squeeze.

If there are no questions I’ll gather up our results and complete analysis of any remainders. If one of mine looks odd, please point it out. After all, two heads are better than one :):stuck_out_tongue:

Here’s the wrapped up results of our analysis. We analyzed 8 pairs. I have two more to go, which I’ll do on the fly like I usually do every morning. Note the entries.

EUR/JPY-Messy Cross, 1H Tymen short, Surrounding Trends-weak up, take break out of M15 down or wait for 1H pattern to change. Watch for cleaner trade set-up

W-USD/CHF-H1 in long entry pattern, surrounding trends-H4 up, but falling PA-30M down and rising PA, watch M15 and below for long breakout entry.

*USD/CAD-Everything down. Wait for M5 retracement at least for short entry

W-GBP/JPY- H1 Looks like retracement from up trend. Surrounding trends, up. Take breakout up off M15 for tight stop breakout off squeeze

W-EUR/GBP-Waiting for break down and enter short out of M15 squeeze.

EUR/USD-Messy pair, needs big 4H move up or down to enter

*GBP/USD-Good Long, look for at least M5 retracement for entry

**USD/JPY-All Good Long. Enter off any retracement

So, we have three good for entry off retracement and three on watch list. Your traders journal should have notes something like this :slight_smile:

1 Like

I agree with those biases. Nice to have knowledgeable traders like you around Graviton!

And here are the final two. Two more possible entries. That gives us 5 possible entries and 3 on the watch list. 2 are messy no-trades. The only one you could pretty much enter from anywhere was USDJPY, which I just did!

*AUD/USD - Very long term up, opened today down, Trends H4-down, H1-Flat, 15M-Up, enter down w/ tight stop off M15 BB Bounce

*EUR/CHF - Very long term down, daily-squeeze flat, H4-flat BB DNA entry down, H1-up, 30M-flat,15m-down, M5-up, take H4 BB DNA entry down as soon as M5 retracement completes.

That completes this exercise. If you have any questions I’ll try to answer them. If you have set up a demo account, try it out now to get some practice.

Tomorrow morning, and every trading morning, I will do this all over again for my account. After just a few days of demo you should see if this is working for you or not.

Happy Trading

Thanks. Well, the way this works, if we only get 3 out of 5 entries with nice long trends, we’ll make really good pips. Even 2 will do quite well. The more practice, the easier and better the analysis. The better the analysis, the more pips :smiley:

Ok, finally had a chance to give this thread the attention it deserves. Some excellent information here, I have to say. I can actually feel my understanding of the market increase.

What is of real benefit is that you have outlined not so much a system, but more a routemap to trend identification, that when coupled with the BB CBL has real potential should a trade be caught right.

I’m looking forward to market open so I can see where this goes, and if nothign else comes from this, following your daily routine can only set me in good stead when considering trades.

Cheers boss!

Cord