Thanks. You’ve answered a problem for me…I went into the code and reduced the pairs to the 8 that I trade. And, I set them up in the order that I had on the screen. Nothing special about that order, I just wanted the display to reflect the same order. After correcting a few errors (neat that you can get the info from the compiler step…just like the old days in BASIC) I managed to run the revised code. Voila! Different order. Couldn’t figure it out and now you’ve shown me.
Thanks.
100% Agreed. Some of the advice here would cost a fortune if it came from coaching gurus.
I’ve decided to re-read Trading in the zone and reminisces of a stock operator. Both great books, and I’m sure what I need right now to really get all the tips & tricks from both threads embedded in my trading method…
I would ask if ignoring the lower time frames is prudent? The higher TF are a consolidation of what happens at the lower time frames. The higher TF don’t set the trend, they really only show the trend that already occurred. Using the laws of probability, we can make predictions of future trends, however they are predictions only.
However, the lower time frames set the trend insomuch as they are the first indicating of changes to come. They are more forward indicators of a possible reversal and can help provide warnings of a trend reversal before it appears on the larger time frames.
It is sorta like a traffic jam on the interstate. Looking at a 10 mile stretch of road at one time is like your larger time frames. It will show basically the overall traffic flow, but nothing really concrete. As you zoom in on smaller stretches of road you get more details about how traffic is performing. If you have a traffic camera at one point, you may witness a crash. This crash and subsequent slowdown in traffic won’t appear on the larger time frame (10 mile stretch of road behind the crash) until much later and with varying degrees of slowdown.
If you are a driver you want to have some sort of heads-up of possible slowdowns so you listen to traffic reports. If you ignore the indications of a possible slowdown you could be caught going from 60mph to suddenly 20mph in a span of a mile without warning. So even if you were going with the larger overall pattern of 60mph as your indication you would be caught unawares of a possible hiccup in the commute.
At least that’s how I view it, if someone has another opinion please share or if you think I’m way off please share that as well.
I agree that ignoring ANY time frame is probably not in a trader’s best interest. As Graviton and others have said, all TFs have something to tell the trader.
Recent discussion have been focussed not so much on IGNORING TFs as on IDENTIFYING the contributions being made to the trend (or lack thereof) by the various TFs.
Good work. Many thanks for getting this in right after close. Now if I can just tear some others away from their toy, we can get rolling on this. Hopefully we’ll have some other input soon :rolleyes:
Here is my cut at an analysis of USD/CAD
Monthly – Current visual trend is down. BB leveling. Two most significant SR levels (1.2800 and .9380 ) are probably too far away right now to be in play in the near future.
Weekly – Downtrend from about 03/08 TF with very little upside movement within the trend. BBs are sloping down. Some closer in SR levels are at 1.10xx, 1.02xx and .98xx.
Daily – Downtrend overall but significant bounces/retracements can be seen with peaks hitting a downtrend line drawn from a peak high that occurred on 3/26/10. That line has been hit (or approached very closely) five times, including this past Friday. PA on Friday is also at the +2sigma BB . Friday’s close at 1.0155 corresponds to a level that has not been penetrated since PA fell below it on 3/31/10. The combination of the downtrend line and the apparent resistance being shown suggests caution for any long consideration right now.
H4 – Last three candles have been strong bullish candles. The wick on the last hit the down trendline referenced above. Lower two BB lines are sloping up. The upper BB line is also sloping up but it appears to be a 1day action following a contraction of a Rachel-type formation. This might indicate that PA will be entering a “Tymen No-No” trading area. Caution is advised.
H1 – appears to be at extreme of current upside movement. One-candle CBL is at 1.0149. The move would require an SL above 1.0172 but it could offer an attractive R:R with the mid BB (Tymen’s approach) currently at 1.0077.
My take: I’ll watch for an attractive entry and play this with extreme caution. I definitely would NOT be looking for any longs in this pair, right now.
Fundamentals: Couldn’t – OK, didn’t- find any current commentary
Comments welcome.
Thanks, that’s two now. Here’s a hint, dailyfx.com has fundamental news on all majors. I lifted the below. There is a very good reason I asked for this. It has to do with trading longer TFs, less work, more stable trends, more pips 
Canadian Dollar Uptrend at Risk as Positioning Heavily Overbought
Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Bearish - Canadian Dollar sentiment points to further gains- Extreme futures positioning nonetheless warns of a potential retracement The Canadian Dollar finished the week as the worst-performing currency of the G10, falling sharply against its US namesake on an apparent bout of profit-taking through Friday’s close. There was little rhyme or reason for the sharp Loonie declines; the USDCAD began its rally following a February Gross Domestic Product report that fell squarely in line with consensus forecasts. Given that the currency trades near generational highs and futures positioning remains very heavily long the CAD against the US Dollar, sharp USDCAD rallies are likely explained by mere short covering across the forex world. Of course timing any such reversal has proven quite near impossible, and it will be critical to monitor any and all USDCAD moves in the week ahead. Short-term Canadian Dollar moves will likely follow the trajectory of crude oil prices and broader financial market risk sentiment, while a late-week Canadian employment report likewise promises substantial volatility out of CAD pairs. Consensus forecasts call for the strongest net job gain since January, leaving substantial room for disappointment. Yet it is interesting to note that a Bloomberg survey shows the range of economist predictions at a substantial 8.2k to 50.0k net jobs. Clearly someone will have over and underestimated job creation in the Canadian economy, and markets will likely react strongly to any and all substantial surprises out of said news release. Otherwise Canadian Dollar traders should likely keep an eye on any and all developments out of the US economy. A substantial week of US economic event risk could force sympathetic moves out of the closely-linked Canadian currency. - DR
Read more: DailyFX - Canadian Dollar Uptrend at Risk as Positioning Heavily Overbought DailyFX - Canadian Dollar Uptrend at Risk as Positioning Heavily Overbought
We have lots to cover and due to my other demands, I’m falling a bit behind, so I need to pick up the pace a bit. I don’t want to discourage anyone from breaking new ground, and some people have learned to compile MT4 programs and made improvements on my simple trend count, but this is turning into a bit of a side topic and I want to get on with things, if that’s ok with everyone else.
I’ve been checking in with everyone as I have a chance. Some people are having very good results with account increases of 5 to 7% a day. That’s just fantastic. I’ll say to such people that those results are at the top of the class. I’d like to say don’t change a thing, but I’m concerned that some may not be following the rule to never risk more than 1% of your account on any trade. There is a very good reason for this.
It’s all about the probabilities of a long string of losses occurring. Even if you have a very excellent W/L ratio, say 4 to 1, the probability of something unusual happening, like 20 losses in a row, increases as you trade longer. Trust me, I have been there, it will happen eventually, maybe sooner or maybe later, but it’s coming someday.
If you are trading to risk 1% of your trading capital per trade and it happens, you would lose 20% of your trading or less. That’s bad, but with a good system you could recover that capital fairly quickly. I have recovered from worse. If you are trading 5% risk per trade or more, you could be wiped out. Think this over carefully. Many never recover from that type of loss. They tuck their tail between their legs and go off to sell their life one hour at a time to someone else with the capital to buy it. I don’t want to be a part of that happening to anyone. So please, use good money management at all times.
I’m sure there are many who are having results a little less stellar, but still very good for their experience level. I’d say to them, keep it up. You will experience some setbacks, but the longer you do it, the easier it gets. I have also heard from a few who aren’t having such good results. They are the ones I want to address a bit now.
One complaint I’ve heard from some newer traders is they are getting stopped out too often. I want to counsel against increasing your stop more and more thinking that will solve the problem. Oh, if it were only that easy. I trade the 1h TF with very tight stops, usually 12 to 20 pips. If you are trading in this range and stopping out lots, there’s nothing wrong with your stops. There is something wrong with your trade selection. You are overtrading. You need to make fewer trades and better trades. I know that it’s not easy to decide which of all the possibilities you see are the good ones, so I’ll give you some hints next that you can go and try out for yourself.
Graviton, I never doubted that you had a good reason…you usually (always?) do.
I didn’t know about the URL you provided. Thank you. I’ll definitely go look both now and in the future.
Here is my review of the EUR/JPY -
Monthly - Long term there was an upward trend from 2000 to midyear 2007. Since then a steep decline to a low of 112.00 mid 2008. Than a retrace up though mid 2009 and then another decline with a steep decline in 2010. Right now price has been riding down the mid bb and trendline. Monthly BB appears to be entering a bb squeeze.
Weekly - in a downtrend riding the same trendline and S/R as monthloy
Daily - has been in a down trend with several retraces. Fridays close candle looks like an evening star. Wick hit S/R and round number 126.00 (125.95) Candle also closed at Fib 61.8 from weekly hi/lo
4 hr - Has been a money maker using Tymen’s CBL trades in april there were 6 outer to outer trades and 2 outer to mid bb trades. 
Currently in a down trend after boucing off the top BB and 126.00. There are about 50 pips to the mid bb.
1 hr - has been in a downtrend since this morning and has closed below the mid bb for the last 5 candles. Bottom BB is about 50pips away.
Fundamentals - From Brian Dolan Forex.com - Gain Capital
News for Japan is light next week with Auto sales on Thursday.
News for Europe over the weekend - Greece bail out. on Sunday, the EU has scheduled a press conference at which the final details of the Greek aid package are expected to be announced…The latest headlines suggest that an agreement is near, so we have to think the upside in EUR is going to be in play, at least in the beginning. Judging by still highly elevated peripheral Eurozone CDS’s and bond yields, markets may simply conclude additional borrowing by deficit-riddled EUR members does not solve the long-term problem and quickly resume selling EUR. Given the still daunting deficit environment in Europe.
My take on the news…with no Japan news early in the week and with the Greece news this weekend will have a greater impact on this pair. If the news is good I think we will see a big opening gap LONG from Fridays close. No bail out deal make then it’s going south fast. (120.00)
If there was no Greece news coming out this weekend I would be looking for a short of the pair for another 50pips (124.17) Then start looking for the longs.
Thanks
Jack
Thanks Jack, we are getting some very good work here. Would you mind posting some charts of your successful trades? We have had many requests for such trades from the newer traders.
Ok, here is my take on the eurgbp,
monthly - From 2003 until 2007 the price ranged between a relatively narrow price band, until mid 2007 until the end 2008, where we had a steady increase in price. At the end of 2008, the price spiked massively, initially shooting right through the 1995 resistance line. From here, it has again started to range, this time around that same resistance level, and with increased volatility than before. Currently, my limited experience limits me from ascertaining if this is the start of a downtrend, or the start of an uptrend, as we have both higher lows and lower highs.
Weekly - Here it is perhaps a little easier to see what the PA has been doing since that spike of 2008. The lower highs are definitely more pronounced, which could lead to the current PA falling beyond the last support level set in early February. I would say the weekly then is currently in a downtrend?
Daily - First glance at the daily chart again shows a downtrending motion from the 2008 spike. However, what is now a little clearer is that there could be significant support and resistance levels here. The first resistance was set on the first day december, 2009. It was confirmed on the 10th march this year, and following the PA failing to punch through, it has been steady falling.
The Support line was set 20th Jan this year, and it right now being tested again. Here then, we could see the potential start of either a significant uptrend, or should the PA break through, then the start of a significant downtrend?
H4 - From March 1st to 23rd April, we have had consistently lower highs, signalling a continuing downtrend. From the 23rd April, the PA has been erratic, following its contact with the support line from the Daily chart. I cannot say now whether the daily is an uptrend or a downtrend, only that it is bouncing around inside a mini channel of it’s own here. From this, a break through of either the top of this channel or the bottom could again signify the start of another strong trending action?
H1 - Here we can see the H4 channel in a little more detail. Whilst the PA can still be seen to be bouncing around inside the channel, there are some potential high lows forming here, perhaps signalling the start of an uptrend? Right now the price sits at a resistance line that has been tested 4 times since 23rd April without being broken. Perhaps if the price can finally push on through we will get our uptrend?
Fundamentals from Daily FX -
The British Pound may see an early boost from a final Greek bailout agreement but the currency looks decidedly vulnerable ahead of Thursday’s UK general election as traders fret about the future of fiscal policy amid uncertainty at the polls.
The third televised contest between the candidates to take up the post of UK prime minister after Thursday’s general election has come and gone, and while this final round was broadly given to the Conservatives’ David Cameron, the clear winner of the UK’s first experiment with such debate was clearly the Liberal Democrats’ Nick Clegg. The charismatic leader managed to pull his party out of the shadow of its larger competitors and make the election a true three-horse race, meaning the seemingly inevitable downfall of current Labour PM Gordon Brown will not translate into a Tory victory by default. Indeed, the Lib Dems are all but tied with the Conservatives in the latest opinion polls, hinting the election may produce the first hung parliament since 1974 as neither party is able to secure a clear majority.
On balance, this is an ominous prospect for the British Pound. Markets prefer a Conservative victory, hoping Mr Cameron and company will make good on their promise to aggressively tackle the UK’s soaring budget deficit. The Lib Dems have not inspired such confidence, offering precious little in the way of details on how they would proceed on the matter. In any case, they too can’t hope for an outright majority and the prospect of a divided government incapable of charting a clear course for fiscal policy may prove bad enough to send Sterling lower in the election’s aftermath.
Elsewhere, the economic calendar seems relatively uneventful but risk sentiment may prove to be a factor early in the week, giving the Pound a boost if EU policymakers announce a finalized and expanded Greek bailout as expected over the weekend. Indeed, 21-day percent-change correlation studies between GBPUSD and the MSCI World Stock Index return a value of 0.88, the highest in nearly three months.
Read more: DailyFX - British Pound Threatened on Uncertain UK Election Outcome DailyFX - British Pound Threatened on Uncertain UK Election Outcome
I hope that made sense, and more importantly was actually correct? 
Cord
I’m not surprised that the more experienced traders are having better results with this system than newer traders. Many have made extensive studies of candle stick patterns, money management and other relevant material that is all coming together for them now. Experienced traders have all sorts of loss limits that prevent them from getting so deep in a hole they can’t climb out. I have a daily and weekly loss limit, but I also have a limit that I will never take more than two stop losses on the same pair in a day.
Tymen ran through some basics of indicators and concluded that they didn’t work by themselves. When he introduced the BB DNA entry method, but advised that it was not for new traders. That might be because there are many other things like money management and pair selection that more experienced traders have already practiced. So let’s look at some things that might help newer traders select fewer and better trades.
The Tymen method of BB DNA is a type of filter that selects trades that are already at their statistically maximum or minimum values and have turned a bit to revert back toward the BB Mid band. If you find that you are stopping out too often using Tymen’s method just as he presented it, there is nothing wrong with prefiltering your trades and only selecting the ones that give you fewer stopouts. I suspect this is something the more experienced traders are doing almost reflexively. I’ll present a few possibilities and you can test them for yourself.
I’ve noticed some experienced traders are combining candlestick methods with BB DNA. This makes sense since it is a direct observation of very detailed price action. They watch for a particular pattern like a star or a doji before entering and seem to be getting very good results. I’m not saying that anything works for everyone, but if you haven’t spent some time studying these patterns, this would be a good time.
Others are using higher level time frames to filter their trades, only trading when two or even three trends of TFs above them are in the direction of their trade. This makes really good sense since the way to make the most pips with this system is to always trade WITH the trend. If you are keeping a traders journal, the very first thing you should start doing is review your trades at the close of the market each week. I suspect if you go back and review you will find you have not been trading Tymen’s system as he presented it or you have not been trading WITH the trend.
Tymen also showed us the method of only Trading long when the MACD is above the 50% line and only short when the MACD is below the 50% line. There is nothing in his system that prevents you from using an indicator as a pre-filter to only take better trades and I encourage you to review your trades at the end of each trading week to see if one pre-filter or another would have prevented the majority of stopout losses. This is something professional traders do every week of their whole carreers. Yes it is hard work, but it pays very well indeed.
Tymen also once suggested to a trader that the stochastic could be used as a filter (you have to read his comments very carefully). I’m a Stoch trader from way back and used to look for particular setups where the 15m was coming off the bottom (for long) and the 30m and 1h were already headed up. This is almost the same as saying the trends for two levels above are headed up. I would ride the 15m up and if it saturated (a complaint many have about the Stoch) I would move one level up to the 30m, if it saturated up, I would move up to the 1h chart and continue to follow it up. It was a simple system, but I had good long term results from it. Walking up timeframes allowed me to stay in a good long trend longer. There is a simpler way to just use it for a trade filter and I detailed it in an earlier post. if the short term line is above the long term line, only trade up. If it’s saturated up, move up a timeframe for a signal. Use just the opposite for a trade down.
These are all entry filters. You can try others like the RSI or ADX. Another popular one is if price is above the 100sma and 200sma only trade long, if price is below both, then only trade short. Another is if price is above a major up trend line, only trade up, if price is below a major down trendline, only trade down. There must be a very large number of these. Anything directly related to price action should be considered first.
The point is not to trade these filters by themselves, but rather use them to reduce the number of trades you are taking, and then only take them when conditions are most favorable. I can’t say which, if any of these filters will reduce your stopouts. I would suggest first try filters that are closely related to price action, such as candle sticks or PA above the 100sma and 200sma only go long, or below only go short. Trend lines are also a tool I have found to be very effective, and of course, if you haven’t been trading WITH the trend, this would be a very good time to start. If nothing else, this will reduce your number of trades and SL losses and give you more time to think over the trades you do take.
If anyone is having problems with too many stopouts (a poor W/L ratio), I will be happy to work with you directly to get it up where it should be and show you methods to keep it there. I’ll bring in other senior traders for their opinions if that is needed. Whatever it takes. All you have to do is ask. But you’ll need to ask quickly as I’m running out of time to get through these basic things and I need to move on to some more advanced material.
Hello all, I am attaching a PDF of most of Gravitons comments to date. Because of my low level of expeirence I have not been able to contribute as much as others. This is raw and not fancy, just a help to those like me who don’t want to wander back through the thread searching for an answer.
Please keep posting pair analysis so I can selfishly pick Graviton’s brain:D:D
Graviton thru 5-1-10.pdf (1.23 MB)
Thank you for doing this work. A very useful contribution.
Agreed, many thanks.
Before I move on, if anyone has any questions, please post them now so everyone can benefit from the answers.
I think it might be useful to all of us to have a list of your favorite sites/URLs, such as the one you suggested to me (dailyfx.com).
Thanks
Whar broker do you use? I’m shopping for a new one. Any suggestions from others is appreciated. I have 10k to put in and will start trading with mini’s till I’m comfy.
I think you have what it takes to be a good trader. You have realized it’s not as easy as some would make out and are willing to put in the hard work to make it happen. Everyone is looking for that magic bullet. If there is one, be sure that it will take lots of work to implement. Having a complete understanding of what you are trading is a very good step in the right direction.
Here are my comments on your analysis.
1m- yes, we have been in a bit of downtrend of late, but looking waaaay back, we can see price has gone up over the past 4 years from about 6800 to 7200 far left candle to far right. This will be important to know soon as I move to longer TFs and bigger pips.
Always look at price far left to price far right to see price action in an objective light.
1w-I see this chart differently. Remember we are still in the VERY long term charts, 1w & 1m. I use these charts for position trades that run from 6 months to 2 years and make 1000 to 2000 pips each, so they are important.
Look at just the last year of data. Far left to far right, price went up 1400 pips, so it looks like a good uptrend to me.
Daily- Agreed
H4- Agreed, the obvious BB DNA trade here is counter trend. This and the daily chart are the ones that tell you that it is counter trend.
1h- yes, here you can see the counter trend trade in detail. Only about 20 pips profit to be made if you traded it very well. I would not have taken this trade, but that’s just me. I just don’t trade counter trend, I’ve been burned in the past on it just one too many times. I might consider this a good long entry if price bounces off the mid-BB. I would do a cbl just as if it bounced off the bottom bb. That may be the only entry you get. But don’t go running off in a rush to trade it. This is a specific type of trade that is very advanced, getting in late to a bb walk. I would need to discuss it specifically to show all the in’s and out’s of this. It’s not for beginners, but when in the advanced material, ask me about it and we will go into it in detail with all the stats and such.
30M- agreed, might make a long bb DNA entry here, we’ll see. Let the market tell you what it is going to do here.
15m- I would use this chart for timing the best entry, but I would trade the 30m chart minimum. That doesn’t mean though that there is no way to enter here. You just have to understand the risks and control them. More to say on that later.
Fun(damental) info: I bet you learned something very fundamental doing this extra credit exercise. Yes, the nu is a com doll, it will very closely track the crb index. The writer of this fun info said he was surprised at it’s move up. Considering the chart info above, he must not know much about technical analysis. But his fun take on things will be VERY important later.
Thanks for participating. You’ll make it. I’ll do anything I can to help you since you put in the work required.
Good Job!