What Every New & Or Aspiring Forex Trader... Still Wants To Know

[Alishijo]

Just rewatched the Seasonal Tendencies video to refresh my memory. ICT mentions that the best time to buy GU is in mid Sept.. EU and GU are in OTEs on the daily + it's that time again . Also, if I'm reading it right, the commercials have been adding a pretty good amount to their long positions.

Cable Coms adding to longs, but not as much as Fiber Coms. Can someone do a check of Fiber price action for the last 15 years for the month of September? I just did a quick check back to 2006, and it seems 2006 is the only year we didn't get any September lift. Got to dash off.

Regards

[abrsive]

@Spanishjeff - I hope you got those Fibs working right

@fxnumerouno - thanks for the suggestion to keep an eye on the relative ranges of LOs and LCs. I sense these might be useful to compare. And thanks for responding about the question of oversold/overbought. That brings up my next question...

While I understand that the essence of ICT's method is price action and not indicator-watching, over his long course of materials I have seen him mention four oscillator-type indicators:

• Williams' Percent Range (14)
• Relative Strength Index (14)
• Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3)
• Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (12, 26, 9)

Since it appears that he does refer to these indicators at times for entry confirmation, I wonder what settings to use. At the moment, I am using the MT4 defaults, which I have shown above, and I am using them all on the hourly chart. I wonder whether there is a better set of numbers to use, or a better timeframe? Any informed opinions out there?

Cheers, Pajo.

Hello Pajo,
I'm not the most informed, but I'm lurking and studying a bit. I can give you a bit of info on the Williams %. Michael mentioned that a 20 period (he also said that the 14 was ok as well) on the daily chart gives you a good image of "Trader Sentiment". By the way, right now it's super sold out.

I wonder if I could get some doubts cleared up by someone. I'm sure it's simple, but I'd like to have it right.
Should I adjust the PivotDailyMacro and the ICT_Pivot_Macro to my time zone (not EST)? How (i know there is an hour shift value)? Are you guys using both macros?

Thanks in advance, any help is greatly appreciated.

[couriermike]

It seems Fiber is playing a very nice technical game today. Ran the stops on previous day's high that came in at MR1 and just shy of the 1.3700 figure. ICT told us to look for them to gun stops above and below 4H fractals, and then trade back in line with the D1 flow. This is exactly what happened at the PDH. Price catches a 135 pip run south to S1 which is OTE from PDL to PDH and support from PD NY afternoon session. Que 95 pips long. Nice!

You described my trade last night perfectly. Did you take the long back up? I got the short on the way down.

I'm working on not over-trading, not trying to hit home runs, but hopefully learning to get consistent gains. Also, I now set the alarm for LO.

One question though, is 0700 London to early to trade the LO? Is that part of the kill zone? I got lucky with it last night but not sure if that's too early in general or not.

[Jaroon]

couriermike,

yes if you're talking BST (sounds like I'm insulting you lol). I use 7 till 9 as my KZ. Nice trade btw.

Personally, if I take a LO trade it's normally after 8 BST when you have both Frankfurt and Londons' liquidity but LO is not my best session, worst actually

[MCAWally]

Cable Coms adding to longs, but not as much as Fiber Coms. Can someone do a check of Fiber price action for the last 15 years for the month of September? I just did a quick check back to 2006, and it seems 2006 is the only year we didn't get any September lift. Got to dash off.

Regards

I broke it up into 2 halves:
'96 Down Down
'97 Up Up
'98 Up Up
'99 Down Up (finished higher than Sept open-just)
'00 Down Up (But lower than open)
'01 Down Up (Finished at open)
'02 Range Range (went nowhere)
'03 Up Up
'04 Up Up
'05 Down Down
'06 Down Range (stayed in the first weeks range 170 pips)
'07 Up Up
'08 Up Down
'09 Up Range
'10 Up Up

8 up's, 5 downs and 2 ranges.
Certainly not that conclusive.

Wally

[MCAWally]

You described my trade last night perfectly. Did you take the long back up? I got the short on the way down.

I'm working on not over-trading, not trying to hit home runs, but hopefully learning to get consistent gains. Also, I now set the alarm for LO.

One question though, is 0700 London to early to trade the LO? Is that part of the kill zone? I got lucky with it last night but not sure if that's too early in general or not.

Good trade, great execution. WTG
An hour either side of LO is in the kill zone so German open is fine (GO!!!). Often GO pushes price one way and out of the Asian range and then LO pushes it back into the Asian range but I wait to hear Micheal's views on LO trading before polluting the thread with my theorys.

Wally

[ambtn723]

I broke it up into 2 halves:
'96 Down Down
'97 Up Up
'98 Up Up
'99 Down Up (finished higher than Sept open-just)
'00 Down Up (But lower than open)
'01 Down Up (Finished at open)
'02 Range Range (went nowhere)
'03 Up Up
'04 Up Up
'05 Down Down
'06 Down Range (stayed in the first weeks range 170 pips)
'07 Up Up
'08 Up Down
'09 Up Range
'10 Up Up

8 up's, 5 downs and 2 ranges.
Certainly not that conclusive.

Wally

Thanks for this.

If it helps anyone, there's a book called The Way of The Turtle that I've been reading. Though it goes into a lot of conjecture about technical analysis, I found the most helpful insight to be that the author preaches trying to stay away from predicting markets and instead thinking about probabilities.

As such, I can't see a probabilistic correlation (and I've been crunching a lot of data) for the September rise, but market sentiment overall against the Euro or for that matter any other country in EU is negative. For the last few cycles, the 4 hr, 1 hr and daily charts are all pointing south. I'm watching 3 low's:

1.3500 institutional level. That's the lowest it's been in 10 years
1.5300 instituational level....that's the yearly low
1.5759 that's the Quarterly low (and amazingly weekly) low -- was just hit yesterday.

Today's cable is bouncing between 1.5868 which is a strong S/R level for the last 7 days and 1.5759 low. My guess is that sometime in the next few days, we're going to see another lower low (judging by the trend and market sentiment). I don't see anything pointing north.

Please share your insight.

[shaunfx]

Thanks for this.

If it helps anyone, there's a book called The Way of The Turtle that I've been reading. Though it goes into a lot of conjecture about technical analysis, I found the most helpful insight to be that the author preaches trying to stay away from predicting markets and instead thinking about probabilities.

As such, I can't see a probabilistic correlation (and I've been crunching a lot of data) for the September rise, but market sentiment overall against the Euro or for that matter any other country in EU is negative. For the last few cycles, the 4 hr, 1 hr and daily charts are all pointing south. I'm watching 3 low's:

1.3500 institutional level. That's the lowest it's been in 10 years
1.5300 instituational level....that's the yearly low
1.5759 that's the Quarterly low (and amazingly weekly) low -- was just hit yesterday.

Today's cable is bouncing between 1.5868 which is a strong S/R level for the last 7 days and 1.5759 low. My guess is that sometime in the next few days, we're going to see another lower low (judging by the trend and market sentiment). I don't see anything pointing north.

Please share your insight.

All I can say is trade what you see, ignore the talk and squabbling about the market. Past 2 days have seen near perfect market profile buy days(FIBER),we are in an OTE on the daily charts, decent increase in the commercials from prior week (in cable) , OTE's on the smaller TF's, Decent support levels and and and. This for me is enough to get me going long. As you said earlier, think in terms of probabilities and trade only the high probability setups. Rather than line yourself to a bearish outlook trade what you see

[shaunfx]

I wonder if I could get some doubts cleared up by someone. I'm sure it's simple, but I'd like to have it right.
Should I adjust the PivotDailyMacro and the ICT_Pivot_Macro to my time zone (not EST)? How (i know there is an hour shift value)? Are you guys using both macros?

Thanks in advance, any help is greatly appreciated.

This depends on where the servers of your broker are located. If for example their servers are in the EST time zone as is the case with MBtrading, Should you wish to set EST midnight pivots(NY MIDNIGHT PIVOTS) the "shift hours" tab should be set to "0"

Should you wish to set your pivots to GMT midnight (London pivots), the shift hours tab will be set to +5

I religiously use the PivotDailyMacro indicator , as for the ICT_Pivot_Macro indicator I rarely use it (Just personal preference). If you wish to learn more about its use watch one of ICT's recent videos regarding the traders trinity. He details its use in their.

[couriermike]

Does the LO strategy work for all the pairs? Since London is the most active session. Or is it primarily for fiber and cable? Not sure if ICT has said anything about this. Thanks.