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Thread: Gone Fishing!!

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    purplepatchforex's Avatar
    purplepatchforex is offline FX-Men Honorary Member
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    Default Gone Fishing!!

    Now, I don't know that much about fishing, and I'm that big on analogies either, but in this instance I think it might be quite helpful.

    I don't know why it's not crossed my mind before, the parallels between trading and fishing, but think about it like this:-

    You could go fishing 3 days in a row and not catch anything, this does not mean that you are a poor fisherman it's just that the fish isn't there, and if the fish isn't there you just can't catch any. It's the same with trading, if the market is not moving or it doesn't provide you with your setup, you have to just be patient and come back tomorrow.

    Same with strategies, I might be fishing for mackerel, and you might be fishing for pollack, now just because I'm not catching mackerel today, there is no need for me to switch to fishing for pollack, just because you are. Ok as far as I know there isn't much difference between fishing for mackerel and pollack, so you may well employ two strategies concurrently, but you really don't want to be mixing it up in Forex.

    Also, seasons can be different too, and years, a strategy that may well yield 100% this month, may only be 50% profitable next month, and 20% the next.

    But the key point being is **Be Patient**
    InnerCircleTrader likes this.
    Keep It Simple Stupid


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    Buckscoder is offline FX-Men Honorary Member
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    Right. I wrote that anywhere last year or so. It's like fishing. You can just get what the sea gives you and if the sea gives you nothing, you can just lose if you try to be violent in getting something. Maybe at the end of the day some sharks get you as shark food.

    Regret trading, overtrading, sort of that will harm any account sooner or later.

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    Jaroon is offline Junior Member
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    I've been thinking of good trading conparisons my purple friend and I think weather forecasting has many parallels.

    What drives the market vs. what drives the weather? Interest differentials (low to high) vs. pressure differentials (high to low)

    Why so hard to predict then? Fundamentals ie. induviduals countries news vs. fundamentals like earths rotation and differential heating of land and sea. These small fundamentals can have chaotic and exponential effects on the market/weather. But with a validated system of forecast we know when to carry an umbrella with a high probablity of staying dry.

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    purplepatchforex is offline FX-Men Honorary Member
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    You can't predict the market as such, you got to look at it more like this, on a showery day you don't trade, you just don't know when showers will turn up, when it's constant rain, it's likely to continue, so it's much safer, same when it's constant sun, it's more likely to be sunny in 2 hours if it's been sunny for the last 2, you just got to bide your time and wait.
    Keep It Simple Stupid

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    Jaroon is offline Junior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by purplepatchforex View Post
    You can't predict the market as such, you got to look at it more like this, on a showery day you don't trade, you just don't know when showers will turn up, when it's constant rain, it's likely to continue, so it's much safer, same when it's constant sun, it's more likely to be sunny in 2 hours if it's been sunny for the last 2, you just got to bide your time and wait.
    Well I try to trade with the trend following a retracement, sooo if it showers on a sunny day get the sun cream on.

    edit: Don't we predict the market every time we enter a trade? We just need to get the balance of probabilities on our side over a number of trades to come out on top. Forecasting the weather is also a probabilities based activity, no absolutes, so I think the analogy stands up?
    Last edited by Jaroon; 07-11-2011 at 10:44 AM.

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    DRA
    DRA is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by purplepatchforex View Post
    You could go fishing 3 days in a row and not catch anything, this does not mean that you are a poor fisherman it's just that the fish isn't there, and if the fish isn't there you just can't catch any.
    You could fish elsewhere..........

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    purplepatchforex's Avatar
    purplepatchforex is offline FX-Men Honorary Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaroon View Post
    Forecasting the weather is also a probabilities based activity, no absolutes, so I think the analogy stands up?
    Exactly my point, sometimes it's easier though, like the EURO today.
    Keep It Simple Stupid

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    purplepatchforex's Avatar
    purplepatchforex is offline FX-Men Honorary Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by cadarkitek View Post
    You could fish elsewhere..........

    Naa, couldn't be bothered

    But funny enough there's an interesting point here, I find that if there is a trade on the EURO, there will be something similar on the pound, and at the same time the crosses, when the market moves, most of it moves, so for me it
    's a keep it simple, stick to one pair, I mean I don't think I'd make 5 times more money if I traded 5 pairs, one pair is lucrative enough for me thank you, but also it's easy enough to figure when you can leave the market alone, especially when scalping.
    Keep It Simple Stupid

  9. #9
    InnerCircleTrader Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by purplepatchforex View Post
    Now, I don't know that much about fishing, and I'm that big on analogies either, but in this instance I think it might be quite helpful.

    I don't know why it's not crossed my mind before, the parallels between trading and fishing, but think about it like this:-

    You could go fishing 3 days in a row and not catch anything, this does not mean that you are a poor fisherman it's just that the fish isn't there, and if the fish isn't there you just can't catch any. It's the same with trading, if the market is not moving or it doesn't provide you with your setup, you have to just be patient and come back tomorrow.

    Same with strategies, I might be fishing for mackerel, and you might be fishing for pollack, now just because I'm not catching mackerel today, there is no need for me to switch to fishing for pollack, just because you are. Ok as far as I know there isn't much difference between fishing for mackerel and pollack, so you may well employ two strategies concurrently, but you really don't want to be mixing it up in Forex.

    Also, seasons can be different too, and years, a strategy that may well yield 100% this month, may only be 50% profitable next month, and 20% the next.

    But the key point being is **Be Patient**

    Good analogy and points... patience pays.

    I might add this to the thought... should your fishing hit a dry patch... lower your nets on the right side of the boat, to quote a wise man... if you have more than a hook and line it could just be the thing you need to haul in a snapper or crappie.

    A small collection of price patterns & or approaches in trending conditions, reversal conditions, and range trading conditions would be a wonderful addition to any fisherman's tacklebox... however if you study the times and tides... and avoid the low probability times of the day... you stand a better chance to reel in a trophy. Sometimes it's just as rewarding not catching a thing and enjoying the experience nonetheless... that's the passion needed to get yourself over and through the slow times.

    In the end... its how you personally perceive the following... OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE

    GLGT
    Last edited by InnerCircleTrader; 07-11-2011 at 02:28 PM. Reason: Lipstick and curb appeal

  10. #10
    tedshiflet3 is offline Newbie
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    I love your pic of gecko (sp).... cracks me up every time!

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