Huck, I was reading your Blog, and figured I would throw up an idea. (Throw up hehe :p).
I am not big on understanding all of the internet/geekie/etiquette, so if posting a response on the board here, and not on your Blog is a nono feel free to move or delete.
Anyway this concerns your trade on the 7/18. You seem to have a good understanding of the premise of the trade (cross, cross, angle etc) but I think you are missing out on the context. In other words, where was this trade taken in relation to overall larger PriceTime. Whether we like it or not, we all trade in a universe made of PriceTime, so to get where we are going we need to know where we are.
Please look at the chart below, I generally do not draw trend lines because I see them in my head, but I put them in for illustration purposes. My point is not to change your system or your trading style, but rather to open you up to a larger universe that you may use to your advantage.
Your 18th trade was taken right in the middle of a chop zone, so its chances of a positive outcome were less. Now think about this, maybe if you would have been hunting for shorts at the extreme upper price ranges, your system may have given you several strong entries. I don’t know for sure, but it might be something to look at.
I took a look at your idea, and it looks very good. I was looking at the exact same setup as you. I think even Pipcrawler and Big Pippin pointed out in their blogs that exact falling trend line/channel.
I also like to take into account candlestick patterns, so I will perhaps wait for a bearish confirmation in addition to your trade idea proposal.
Hey Huck, I see you added some filters to the HLHB system, I hope it works out well for you! I would like to present for your entertainment, your system Mutated and on Roids, kinda like the Abomination.
I hope I have this set up right so you can see the chart, the Mas are triangle, and I added CCI, remember that this type of system works very well in a trending market, but will chop you to shreds in a range bound market. If you would like to see an example of a range set up let me know.
If you look at the price action before and after the trend, it goes into a range right away, so you need to realize this so you don’t throw your winnings back into chop. Also this is old school, using indicators that are commonly found. I started the chart in Sept because that is when my fiscal year starts and when my trading year starts, I usually do not trade during the summer but this year I did and had good success.
Also remember that this post is not to be construed as a solicitation to trade, or manage money. This post is not investment advice but is for pure entertainment value, and if you decide to trade in any market please consult with your licensed broker first.
