Does anyone else see shorting EUR/USD and holding into newyear and beyond as a no brainer?
Now let me think, um, No!
Shorted, Covered, Green and flat going into the New Year
The Never Late To The Party VIPER
Just a suggestion, but perhaps if you were to come at it from a slightly different angle & put [B]your[/B] case for shorting & holding into New Years, you might attract a more open discussion.
Agreed, what’s your analysis tell you?
I’m not saying I necessarily disagree with you, but it’s always good to back up your statements.
Clark
I can’t tell you how fortunate this is. I was literally looking for this thread earlier to show to someone that as soon as I see a farily empathetic post on babypips stressing the rational to short the euro…that’s exactly when I know we’ve probably hit the bottom. I found something weak posted earlier… but this post…right here. is exactly what I"d look for.
Now, long story short. your looking to short after a 1300 pip drop in less than 3 months. And the markets kinda afunny sorta creature. it acually doesn’t have any interest in those who are alredy short.
if your short… and you’ve shorted as much as you desire to… you can do NOTHIGN to influence price. other than cover your short. Which is… in effect, BUYING the market. So, if anything, shorts now will be more likley to take profits, and this will push the market up.
I see it like this. What else would have to happen in the world to get MORE people to go short? I mean. geez. if your not short already… your just really late… or… not a human being on earth. If the threat of complete and total finanical apocalypse didn’t get you shorting the euro…nothing will.
And those reasons have all been hashed over and rehased over teh last few months… and the last few weeks in particular.
So, with all those folks short needing to cover to realize the profits… and this type of price action…and this age of the trend…and a multitude of other reasons…
In fact, went long today. both e/u and g/u. made some money. now, i’m looking at 2950 and 2920ish to get long again.
as for short? nothing below 3150 myself. at least not anything i woudl plan ahed of time.
Jay
P.S. Here is the last time I cam across someone who felt the eur was still weak, and the usd was gonna keep pushing strong. they may have had a different type of analysis, but similar thought process. in that their belief in their analysis and understanding was strongheld, seemed to a degree to be “logical”…and yet, somewhat flawed, and very wrong.
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/41810-case-continued-bullish-usd-least-few-more-days.html
I went long the day I saw this one as well.
T’is the season to take profits…and who is sitting on big profits, shorts or longs?
edit:
now if you want to buy, to cover your shorts, you want to buy the lowest possible price. But how do you get a bunch of people willing to sell at the lowest possible price?
sadly, it’s not that hard. you consolidate the low, convince some eager buyers that it ain’t going any lower, they buy and sit there thinking they bought the low…Money in the bag…right?
well they just created some liquidity for the shorts to cover their longs, because all those long positions they just created have sell stops.
then there is a drive to that liquidity hot spot, there’s a false break-out which suckers some more people to sell at the lowest prices, smart shorts cover their positions for massive profit, and price drifts back to equilibrium for the new year
…and if price drives lower instead of consolidating, they’re all the happier. win-win for the smart money shorts
FX MEN honorary members club…oh !!!.. is that for men only… with small issues…you might want totake a look at how far women have come …we even get to vote now…thanks for your ignorant comment…
What the hell are you talking about? Jay nor AK made any sexist joke? That was completely out of context.
you should be aware that the website attaches those labels to us without our consent. personally I don’t like it. it’s just a glorified post counter after all
The comment deserves a bit of a sexist comment though, her comment is sexist by it’s very nature - typical …
LOL. I was gonna say something about that, but I figure I already give all the new members a hard time. Haha I’ll continue leaving it to the even older guys. 
The Fx-[B]MEN[/B] of BP…
Edit: Actually now that I think about it, I still consider myself a newbie on this forum… hmm… >_>
Actually I think it’s offensive to all the unfortunate traders in China and the like, which don’t have the vote!
Er… have you been drinking? Perhaps best to keep this to the question posed by the OP!
Anyway, to whit - I agree with the responses posted thus far - well, except that of Pankhurst’s mad granddaughter lol - but to add a more general point: shorting the Euro at this point would, to me, simply be a knee-jerk fundamental reaction to the current parlous state of EU finances. However, as Jay said, we have already seen a massive sell off over the past few months. On top of that, the Euro has not been meaningfully below 1.3000 in over a year. When you think of all the things that have gone on since then, if that did not push us below 1.3000 in any significant way, then one has to guess that the market really does not want to get much below that level. This is a probability game, at the end of the day, so in that context we can learn a lot from previous Price behaviour.
Personally, I would not hold a position over Christmas anyway - it is a low volume period, Price tends to drift or chop, and in the current climate there is a strong chance of the latest crazy announcement causing spikes. I don’t want to be holding trades through those sort of factors. I shorted Cable yesterday, trading off the Hourly, got in and out and bagged my 3% or so, but rejected a setup I saw on a higher TF purely as the current swirl of factors - from Cameron’s stance to imminent Christmas via a dozen other big issues - makes me want to keep it pretty punchy right now. I’ll look at position trading the other side of the holidays - maybe.
Even if one were going to hold a position over Christmas, based on a fundamental assumption that the EU issues will push the currency lower, that view would surely have to be supported - or at least not undermined - by some form of technical analysis. Yet as others have mentioned, a look at the higher TF charts just doesn’t support taking further short positions at this point. Personally, I shorted EUR off the Hourly late Tuesday morning, that is my only EUR trade this week, but I would not take an overall short position for the reasons outlined elsewhere in the thread.
The mechanical execution of trading is simple, and a strategy can be, but while analysis can become pretty straightforward under the right circumstances, it is important to bring more to the table than ‘the EU is in trouble, the Euro will fall’. That might sound right to the man (ahem, apologies, or woman) in the street, but to a career trader that view has to be put in context. On this occasion, in my view, that context (we have already seen a huge drop, 1.3000 is a major psychological level, arguable ascending triangle on the Weekly and Monthly, unclear Daily, Christmas is imminent etc. etc.) strongly suggests that looking to hold a short position on the Euro through the Christmas period from the current level is not the high probability approach.
Just my thoughts, for what they are worth, as you asked.
ST
Judith, no idea where this is coming from, nor where it is being directed to. the title “fx-men honorary member” is a sort of play on words, taken from the marvel comic book series with a very similar name. It is given by the owners and moderators of this site. And for your information, both the marvel comic book group of make believe super heros and this websites own “FX-Men” club include women.
as for where the “FX” comes from…thats a generally accepted shorthand for “Forex”. much like “xmas” is for “Christmas”
And… to echo Clark… neither one of us made any reference to anything other than (IMO) intellegent, informed comments that would serve someone relatively new to the markets such as yourself very well if you choose to look at what we actually said. And try to explore these things with more consideration, and with the proper attention to detail and open minded thinking that one will likley NEED if they are serious about making a good income (nevermind getting rich) from the forex markets.
Considering that literally no one here said anything the least bit personal, or biased in any way toward anything other than one idea vs another, in which both ideas were directly related to the subject at hand (the forex markets), until YOU mentioned with indignation something completely irrelevent and off subject… This is really completely an expression of some self conditioned defensive reaction, and it neither serves you, nor this community as a whole, any good (at least not in this instance).
I do find it slightly amusing that both you, and the original poster of the link I included in my previous post, who ALSO was “full of conviction” in his belief that the euro was going to continue to stay weak against the dollar, both were personally insulted by someone providing a starkly opposed viewpoint to that of your own. As if viewpoints of government manufacted “legal tender” paper money somehow defined ones character, ones contributions, or ones self worth in this world.
Now, Judith, here is something I am saying directly towards you:
People who come into the markets with a fairly rigid view of what should or shouldn’t be…of what is “obvious” and “predictable”, generally provide a very good paycheck to someone who is more flexable, more able to adjust to new information without feeling personally threatend first, and someone who looks first to fully understand, and then respond, rather than one who is quick to respond, but slower to really want to understand.
And this type of reaction by pulling the “minority card”…be it over race, sex, religion, culture, favorite brand of shoes, or whatever, is something that IS inappropriate in this situation.
Jay.
P.S. Here is a link to the wikipedia page on the comic serioes called “X-men”, created by marvel comics. Just in case you have any doubt of my explanation above: X-Men - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Lol I love that emoticon, genuine laugh out loud moment here.
I obviously hit a nerve there purple patch…my question was valid and you came back with a sarcastic reply…yes the world knows Europe is sinking…i thought I was on a beginners web site for FX trading so if my question was too elementary for you perhaps you should go to sites for the more advanced…it appears you are looking to exploit new comers with selling your products…take it easy there big boy…
Hey hey take it easy little girl.
No, you didn’t hit a nerve at all, my answer was more thought out than your question, nothing is ever a no brainer in Forex believe you me, and if you were as a newbie to take some care in joining a new forum, you wouldn’t be so quick to blurt out such statements, and secondly you might not be as quick to get on your high horse.
And rest assured there is some very advanced trading going on here, and we are all very willing to help all forum users, may I suggest that you just accept that you have got off on the wrong foot, and we will put this behind you.
with all due respect…I didnt get off on the wrong foot I asked a simple question and you replied with sarcasm…think it best I leave this party and go where I am free to ask questions which are elementary…bye boys