The Trader's Arms - Now Open for Business

[The Home Of Golf]

Safe Journeys Buckscoder. No doubt all the usual suspects will still be here when you return !!

[The Home Of Golf]

Oh I guess they have something else to target than my pico lots, lol. Anyways, made some nice pips like the others.

Technically it's overbought on the daily. On the other side we have still a hell lot of large specs in the short trap if I watch cot charts ... I guess those could be more a target than our trades, lol.

Just for speculation: After the FED announced they'll keep the rates low I guess we could see a slow march til 140ish this year.

Oh well, I see that hs pattern also, but as long as it is not confirmed, it is all speculation. Happy pips everybuddy! I'll have not much time actually, as I'm traveling soon and a lot and for a couple of months. So please don't be surprised if I'm away from bp for a while ...

As a matter of interest ( education actually ) what is taken as the confirmation signal of the head and shoulders patteren??

Is it a break of the neckline ??

[The Home Of Golf]

This is my understanding of a Head and shoulders pattern. I would be grateful if someone could put me right if I have got anything wrong here or misunderstood anything.

IF THE NECKLINE WAS TO BE BROKEN :



Neckline currently around 1-3080. Top of Head at 1-3235. Distance between neckline and top of head = 155 pips. So you take the same distance ( -155 pips as the potential drop ) from neckline down.

So 1-3080 - 155 pips = 1-2925.

Would this be the right way to look at a potential break of the neckline ??

[yunny1]

Long @ 1.3044 ... risking 30 pips...

[The Home Of Golf]

Long @ 1.3044 ... risking 30 pips...

Just as a matter of interest yunny, I was wondering how you picked those levels. If you risked 30 pips from 1-3044, your stop would be 1-3014 right?

So I'm looking on my chart and 1-3014 doesn't correspond to any previous S&R levels. So is it a percentage thing? Just curious, if I'm being to nosey feel free to tell me so LOL !!

[yunny1]

Just as a matter of interest yunny, I was wondering how you picked those levels. If you risked 30 pips from 1-3044, your stop would be 1-3014 right?

So I'm looking on my chart and 1-3014 doesn't correspond to any previous S&R levels. So is it a percentage thing? Just curious, if I'm being to nosey feel free to tell me so LOL !!

1.3044 level was the latest strong support in the 1H chart,




The stop is a little bit tricky... the next support is too far away, meaning too much risk to take.

Price had already traveled more than 170 pips today so I used the daily average range to set it.

Daily average range is about 140 pips so I used 20% (30 pips) and that level happened to be also a previous support (not that this is meaningful but I guess helps a bit ).

This is no the usual way I place my stop....the support level looked strong to me but didn't want to take too much risk

[Buckscoder]

Safe Journeys Buckscoder. No doubt all the usual suspects will still be here when you return !!

Thanks HoG!

Well yes, the hs pattern confirmation is the sustained break of the neckline. What we can see right now could however lead to confirmation on the other side. If the current top of hs )resistance( breaks.

[yunny1]

Long @ 1.3044 ... risking 30 pips...

trade closed at 1.3140 96 pips

Now I am short @ 1.3198 but I am not liking PA too much

[PipBandit]

Nice Yunny. I didn't get the long - too much hesitation after I took small loss being long yesterday. Short myself now from 1.3202 but I've moved stop to BE now that it's +15. Took the same trade earlier for +28 and back in again now. Supposed to be some Greek debt news out pretty soon and I guess some people could conceive 70% haircuts as somehow good news. Sounds pretty horrific to me and existing holders of Portuguese debt will be sweating bricks.

Edit - took what was on offer and out for +20. Leaving it for today. Back for more see-saw action tomorrow.

[yunny1]

Nice Yunny. I didn't get the long - too much hesitation after I took small loss being long yesterday. Short myself now from 1.3202 but I've moved stop to BE now that it's +15. Took the same trade earlier for +28 and back in again now. Supposed to be some Greek debt news out pretty soon and I guess some people could conceive 70% haircuts as somehow good news. Sounds pretty horrific to me and existing holders of Portuguese debt will be sweating bricks.

Edit - took what was on offer and out for +20. Leaving it for today. Back for more see-saw action tomorrow.

i just did the same I am out for 15 pips profit. Don't want to push my luck this week.

I can not get out of my mind the COT report, that extreme number is just too much to ignore it... so unless really really bad news out of Europe I can not see a fall for the pair

the only way i look to long term short is if price moves below 1.2980 or goes to the top of the weekly channel ... around 1.3630