If you have been following my post on “lets do an experiment” then I am sorry for not posting the past few days, but everytime I enter my post it sends me to a page that says oops! I don’t know what is happining but I am no longer feeling any love on that post so I will try one more day and if that doesn’t work I will continue the post on this post or maybe start my own blog.
Good Luck and happy pipin
O.k. everyone, last week we had some bad news with the post not letting me post my report so lets hope that doesnt happen again. In order to keep the update short I will just give a final result for the week and not do each day individaully. So heres how it went.
account wins losses balance
.5:1 2 3 $1947.00
1:1 2 3 $1991.74
1.5:1 2 3 $1995.24
Once again we are trading EUR/USD not bad results for only winning 40% of the time.
So onto tonights trades George came up again, I think I should check to make sure I’m not using a 2 headed coin. The buy was placed at 1.3621 the s/l is at 1.3596 and the t/p’s are at 1.3634, 13.646 and 13.658
good luck and happy pipin
Sorry for the late post guys. But I assure I did do the trades at 11:00est like I said.
Onto yesterdays trades 1 closed the other 2 are still open. You can probably guess which one closed!
So tonight George took the night off and the Eagle is flying. So we sold at 1.3620 with a s/l at 1.3645 our t/p’s are 1.3607, 1.3595 and 1.583.
I would like to say good luck but the bad news is that the market went sideways today and our sell is only 2 pips off of yesterdays buy, so that means that we have at leasst one loss.
Well last night was a funny night! The .5:1 account only had 1 position open and it closed with a profit. The 1:1 account had 1 position open and both closed, one win and one loss. The 1.5:1 account had 1 position open and both closed at a loss. Yes it went down 28 pips closed out the buy position and then went all the way up and closed out the sell position. Funny what have we learned here?
I am refining this system and I think I know how to make it a winner. So get your orders in fast.
For tonight the eagle came up again. So we are selling at 1.3731 the s/l is at 1.3756 with t/p’s at 1.3718, 1.3706 and 1.3693
good luck and happy pipin
About last night! (Guess what movie that came from) it was miserable, terrable, horriable and frightful. If you have not figured it out by now that means it was a total loss. Only took a few hours to get stopped out. I’ll give the profit and loss on tommrows post. But it doen’t look good I don’t think we have a win all week.
As for tonight. We lost the lucky quarter, so we are going back to the lucky loonie (Yea, for Canada). This will also confirm my thoughts on how to make this a profitable system. The duck came up so we are going to sell at 1.3753 with a s/l at 1.3778 the t/p’s are at 1.3740, 1.3726 and 1.3714
Good luck and happy pipin
Another day and another loss!! Acrosss the board. Lets all get down and pray to the forex gods for a win. Tommrow the win loss report will come out.
As for today we went back to the quarter and the eagle reared his head so we are selling at 1.3783 our s/l will be at 1.3808 with our t/p’s at 1.3771, 1.3758 and 1.3746
good luck
jia you!!! (meaning go go go), our chinese language…
Been reading ur post… keep it up dude!
Nice day!
Icy you havent told us about your dart system! How is it going?
Last weeks review was not kind to us. Here is our break down.
account wins/loss total w/l balance
.5-1 3/2 5/5 1935.00
1-1 1/4 3/7 1896.07
1.5-1 0/5 2/8 1869.66
So what have we learned so far? That is your home work! Post your answers now. The first 100 replys will recieve my system for free usually a $99.00 value. How can you pass this up?
On to today!
The eagle has landed once again so we are selling at 1.3780 with a stop loss at 1.3805 and the t/p’s are 1.3767, 1.3755 and 1.3743
good luck we need it.
sry boz, i’m bz this few mth…
haven tried this exp yet…
been reading ur post
ha ha…
nice day!
Hi all, I am excited to run a similar expirement in which I risk 1% of account and also use EUR/USD, (due to 2 pip spread) and 1 trade/day at 8:00 PM eastern.
To decide buy vs sell, I will use random number generator on TI-83 calculator, 1=sell 2= buy
I would appreciate your advice on the following item though.
I only have time to manage 1 demo account and I was wondering what risk reward ratio and leverage level you would suggest?
For example I know that too much leverage will kill you, but not enough and you can’t make any money.
Here is how it breaks down:
Stop Loss Leverage
50 pips 2:1
35 pips 3:1
25 pips 4:1
20 pips 5:1
10 pips 10:1
Also to consider, a lower SL will mean more frequent stop outs, but the TP is more likely to hit.
A high SL means less losses but less TP as well, though the profits will be larger, but offset by smaller leverage.
I would appreciate your advice on what level or reward/risk and leverage to use.
I hope to start the expirment today and will keep you all appraised of how it goes.
My version of the bazooka expirement has begun with the following parameters.
Transaction time is 8:30 PM Eastern time
EUR/USD only, useing 4:1 leverage, meaning SL is 25 pips
Reward/risk ration is 2:1, meaning TP is 50 pips
Initial balance at Oanda is $1,000.
Each trade risks only 1%.
And now the most important part, (NOTE THIS PART MUST BE FOLLOWED AS GOSPEL!)
In order to determine whether or not to sell or buy I will only ever use a 2 Euro French coin, with the side with the “2 E” meaning buy and the other side, (shows a tree) meaning sell.
I use the coin available at:
Results for Monday July 16, 2007
Sold 4,000 euro at 1.37759
SL is 1.38009
TP is 1.37259
So how will such a system do in the long term?
Well I should, statisically speaking get 50% right calls. There are 261 trading days in year.
So I should lose 25 pips 130.5 times a year, total loss= 3265.5 pips
130.5 times I should make 50 pips or 6525 pips for a net gain of 3265.5 pips.
Currently, at 4:1 leverage and $1000 account each pip is worth $.40.
So 1 year gain, assuming I always buy/sell 4000 is $1306.2 in gross profit or 130.62% one year return, damned good.
Of course this does not take into account that 261 trades is not a large enough sample to ensure statistical outcomes.
I could lose 20 in a row, and each time I would have to reduce my trade size, but when I win I will increase the trade size.
Since the system is set to make gains beat losses, over the course of a year I should be able to increase exponentially the size of my trades, thus making each pip worth more and so finish the year with a profit of $1500-$2000. 150-200% return.
If such a thing can prove to be true over the long term, (and statistics only gets more accurate with time)
Now let me dabble in some speculation for a bit. Assume 200% returns, and taxes are a high 50%. Thus the net effect is to double one’s account each year.
So after 5 years $1,000 is $32,000, after 10 over $1,000,000 after 15 years $32.8 million, after 20 years $ 1+billion! (I realize this can’t be true or every body and their cat would be useing it).
Of course we will have to see if I have placed my reward/risk level too high.
It may be that I lose 75% of trades because a 50 pip increase may be asking too much.
Any thought on the parameters as set? 4:1 leverage and 2:1 reward/risk ratio
Am I useing too much leverage? too little? Too high reward/risk ratio? too low?
all replies greatly appreciated.
Back again tomorrow.
Hey adam it looks as if your trying to show me up!! I’m glad to see some other people joining in on this experiment. Just in case hobbit or icy didn’t get it, anyone can try their own experiment. As a matter of fact the more the merrier. It will only go to prove my point. That money management is more important than any system and thus proving that I am a Guenius. As for how to run your experiment that is up to you to decide. But once you get your system down (meaning how you work this experiment) it only takes about 5 minutes to manage 3 accounts. So I suggest that you try a few demos that way you can get better feed back. It actually takes more time to post your results. Good Job!!!
As for last night! Did anyone do your home work? Don’t tell me your dog ate it or I will send a note home to your parents.
The trades for last night was not so good. The .5-1 account was a winner the rest lost. On the 1.5-1 account that makes 7 losses in a row.
Onto tonight! We got a George and that means buy, which buy the looks of the trend that might be a good thing. So we are buying at 1.3782 a s/l at 1.3757 with the t/p’s at 1.3795, 1.3807, and 1.3819
Good Luck and happy pipin
I was wondering what you all thought about trading more than 1 currency/day?
I mean, what if one placed 1 trade/day at random, with strict SL and TP for say, every currency that had spread of 4 pips or less.
As I see it this includes the following possibilities:
AUD/JPY
AUD/USD
CAD/JPY
CHF/JPY
EUR/CAD
EUR/CHF (1 pip spread at Oanda as I type this)
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/USD
GBP/CHF
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/JPY
Now no way am I saying make trades in all or even most of these at the same time, that would be nuts, since 13 positions at 4:1 leverage puts me over 50:1 leverage that is Oanda’s limit.
But perhaps a bit of diversification could help boost returns?
Bazooka has 5% risk/trade, I use 1%, but if I make 5 trades in different currencies then I risk the same as he, but am protected from the swings of a single pair.
Also, consider this. Even if I choose, say, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY to trade, all of which should move in the same general direction, (since a sinking dollar mean the first two increase the last one falls) because I buy or sell each based on a coin flip, and because all 3 will move different amounts, I can still win 1 or even 2 in 3 trades even if the market moves against me!
Example, last night French Euro coin says sell EUR/USD, bad move, down 8 pips so far as dollar fell against all major currencies.
But had I also traded GBP and JPY and had flip said to buy GBP and sell USD/JPY I would be up right now for a net paper gain!
Then there are also the possibilities of trading EUR/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/CHF, ect, with other non interrelated pairs.
If USD falls, it won’t affect other pairs, so there is saftey in that.
I have opened second Oanda account based on Bazooka’s advice and plan to test this system of multiple diversified trades/day.
I will number the above pair and then use a random number generator to determine which pairs to trade.
Please give input as to what should leverage level be, ie what SL to use, in terms of pips, and what reward/risk ratio to use, and how many currency pairs to trade.
Ok, so here is the second version of of my bazooka expirement.
Each day I take the ave listed pairs, each numbered 0-15, in the exact order as above, and useing random.org I create a list of 3 integers.
Those tell me what pairs to trade that day.
I then use the integer generator to generate a list of 3 integers, either 1, for sell or 2 for buy, then make the trade at 4:1 leverage, so that each trade risks exactly 1% of my principle.
SL is 25 pips away from entry TP is 50 pips away.
In case neither SL or TP executes the next day I will add 3 more trades unless my margin remaining won’t let me.
Today is day 1, here are the trades.
DAY 1 Date 7/17/2007 Account $1,000.00
Currency Position Amount Price SL TP
USD/CHFshort 4800 1.20305 1.20555 1.1981
EUR/CADshort 4200 1.43770 1.4401 1.4326
NZD/USDshort 4000 0.79093 0.79343 0.7859
Ok so I have figured out how to run 3 different demo accounts on Oanda from a single user name so here is what I’ll do.
System 1. Bazooka expirement
EUR/USD, one trade/day, buy or sell based on flip of a 2 euro french coin. SL 25 pips TP 50 pips from opening price.
System 2: 3 different currency pairs, one trade per day, which pairs and buy or sell determined by random integer generator, SL 25 pips, TP 50 pips as in system 1.
System 3: Actual technical system as described in pips school.
1 day chart, use 5 day and 10 day EMA, look for cross that is verified by full stochastic moving in the same direction and RSI above or below 50.
leverage is 3:1 with SL 30 pips from opening price.
Let’s see if random chance coupled with religious money management can beat a logical system.
Here are the trades for 7/17/07
system 1. Sold EUR/US (I was hopeing for the coin to come up the other way, but so the fates conspire against me) at 1.37929, SL 1.38169, TP 1.37429, as of this writing, down 3.2 pips in 15 minutes.
system 2. see the below post regarding which currencies and at what prices/positions.
As of 8:13 PM EUR/CAD short is down 15.4 pips, as was expected with strong Euro.
NZD/USD short up 2.3 pips, and USD/CHF is up 26.3 pips after 6 hours, pretty sweet.
Overall system 2 up .55% after 6 hours of trading
(Note, as I was writing about system 3 Euro exploded and EUR/CAD was stopped out at 25 pip loss while US/CHF plunged like a stone, TP occured and then price immediately went back up! I am now up 25 pips with NZD/USD still in this thing, now down 2 pips!)
This is what I am talking about! Some news came out, the market kicked and I am now ahead 1% in less than 7 hours because of smart money management!
Bazooka you are a genius!
system 3, complete disaster
Currency Action Price bought price sold SL profit
CAD/JPY Long 117.231 116.931 116.931 -$10.02
EUR/GBP Short 0.6733 0.6763 not closed
GBP/CHF Long 2.46215 2.4592 2.45915 -$10.24
CAD/JPY showed all the signs of a strong coming rally. Stoped out with 30 pip loss within 90 minutes.
GBP/CHF also indicating rally, stoped out 30 pip loss within 2 hour.
EUR/GBP was doing fine until 3 minutes ago the EURO exploded up 20 pips or so. Now down 8 pips
NOW A THOUGHT:
I would like to share a interesting idea I just had, perhaps it is insane but I think perhaps Bazooka has discovered something.
It may be that all systems are bunk.
For all the hundreds of hours of back testing, pouring through dozens of books on Forex trading, learning about fibronnaci retracements, elliot waves and mastering stochastic curves, MCAD, RSI, DMI, ROC, SAR, Bollinger bands, and SMAs, WMAs, EMAs, perhaps any victories we catch are largely luck, and any long term profits simply because we make sure to lose less than we win.
Consider this, the 45 pip EUR/USD system described in the system forum sounds good, and 75% of people in their poll claim to make money off it.
But in the last 2 days had you followed the system you would have lost almost every trade.
Yet people have also used the system to win 7/9 trades in 1 day!
So what do we have? Possibly that the oscillations of the EUR/USD is largely unknowable, and that people confuse a statistically signifigant good day with genius while forgeting that they may have lost the last 10 trades this week.
In the end 90% of people lose money in Forex, or so I have read.
If there were an actual system that worked, then those who discovered it are surely now billionaires, and perhaps this is so.
But I think it may be we peasents who congregate here on this site, (a great one to be sure, but who amongst us truely knows the secret to unspeakable riches, and if you do will you actually let us in on it?) are flailing about, always coming up with yet another system, which seams to work until it starts to deliver close to 50% returns and we tweak one or two things, (perhaps if I replace the MCAD with a fast stochastic! That didn’t work? Well then use slow stochastic!) and hope that will lead us to El Dorado.
Or maybe that is the system of the rich and powerfull! Perhaps George Soros and Paul Allen make their billions these days buying various pair at random, or decided by dart throwing like Icey has dreamed up, and simply guranteeing they lose less than they win via money management!
Perhaps the secret of Forex fortunes is that there is no secret and that flipping a coin, in the long run will yield the same results as a thousand hours of tweaking fibronnaci lines, stochastic curves and bollinger bands.
Perhaps a black helicopter is on its way to my house right now to disapear me for discovering the truth:)
Or maybe it turns out that systems that deliver 66%-75% wins exist and I am simply raving madness.
The coming weeks should be interesting, but I am hoping that the Bazooka system, which is so ironically easy, turns out a winner.
I will immediately become his first dsiciple and devote my life to spreading the gospel of money management and the coin flip. (Or if I become a millonaire off the system, perhaps I will shut up about it and become a billonaire lest the whole world pick up on it and spoil my plans:))
Thoughts?
Thank You adam! Never befor have I received such a complement. And in less than 10,000,000 words too. I feel like I have just been elected the President of the World. And my first order is to cancel all debit. My second order is to pass a law prohibitting anyone from getting out of bed befor 10:00am.
I think I created a monster here. You have graps the conciept I have been trying to prove here. Glad to see you run away with this one keep going. Like the humor you are putting into your post. One word of advise thou try to keep it short.
Last nights trades went pretty much the same way as the night befor, the .5-1 trade made a profit and the other 2 went down. The only difference is that they went right to the s/l pip and then right to the t/p pip. Doesn’t that just boil your kettle?
For tonight we are buying at 1.3819 witha s/l of 1.3794 the t/p’s are 1.3832, 1.3844 and 1.3856.
Good Luck and happy pipin
Well yesterday’s trades sucked
system 1, Bazooka’s model of 1 EUR/USD trade came up short, and stopped out at 25 pip loss.
Today the French Euro finally said to buy, (Yea!) and is now down 16.5 pips, (the turmoil of relying on fate chafes me so!).
system 1 is now 0-1 and worth $990.49, down 1%.
System 2, which experienced the triumph of my first 50 pip TP yesterday with USD/CHF short, also faced destruction with stop out of not only EUR/CAD but also of NZD/USD, each for 25 pip loss.
Today was all about the former british commonweath, with lady luck summoning AUD/JPY long, USD/CAD short and CAD/JPY short.
As I write this the latter 2 have stopped out for 25 pip losses but the mighty australian dollar marches onwards, crushing the yen for a glorious profit of 6.2 pips!
system 2 is now 1-4, worth $979.69, down 2.03%
system 3, basic 5, 10 EMA, 1 day chart system in which crosses are verified by RSI being above/below 50 and stochastic moving in same direction while not oversold/overbought.
Yesterday this system dictated that I go long CAD/JPY and GBP/CHF, and short EUR/GBP.
Results are that the first two trades stopped out at 30 pip losses and EUR/GBP is up 8.7 pips as I write this.
system 3 is 0-2 and is worth $979.98, down 2%.
Interesting to note that so far the systems based on complete chance are matching or beating the system based on technical analysis.
Of course all systems are money losers after 1 day and not doing too hot as of now.
However, EUR/GBP is showing continue weakness, with RSI at 38.61 and full stochastic at 20.73.
Note that may 25 saw stochastic drop to 7.77 and was part of a week long trend in which EUR/GBP dropped from .68524 high to low of .67579, a 94.5 pip swing.
Also on Jan 12 stoch saw low of 4.13 in a downward swing that yielded decline of 235.5 pips!
Hopefully this appreciation of pound against the Euro, (British beat French yet again!) shall continue for a good long while. The way the markets have been treating me lately I could use a 100-200 pip party:)
See you all tomorow, good luck
Well this week I think I see a pattern forming. The same thing has happened again. The .5-1 was a winner and the other two has both turned up a loss.
For tonight we will be selling at 1.3796 with a s/l at 1.3821 and t/p’s of 1.3783, 1.3771 and 1.3759.
Good luck we need it.
System 1, well this system is realy having a crappy time.
3rd loss in a row, and it was long the EUR/USD again! now 0-3 and down to $970.67, down 3%.
System 2 much better
US/CAD, CAD/JPY shorts were stopped out for 25 pip losses. But the mighty Aussie dollar came through and we got our 2nd 50 pip TP!
that’s 2 nights in a row in which we were 1/3 and so system is now $1000.43, broken even and 2-4.
Today’s trades were:
Currency Position Price In SL TP
EUR/JPY long 168.553 168.303 169.053
CHF/JPY short 101.58200 101.84 101.08
NZD/USDlong 0.79293 0.79043 0.79793
As of this writing, EUR/JPY is up 1.7 pips
CHF/JPY is up 9.2pips
NZD/USD is up 8 pips
System 3, my great hope for becoming a multi-millionaire within 20 years
worth $980.23, down 2% after both CAD/JPY and GBP/CHF long positioned stopped out at 30 pip losses each.
Good news is that EUR/GBP is now down only 1.8 pips and today’s addition of EUR/CHF long is up 22.3 pips so far.
Unfortunately the EUR/GBP down trend is starting to sputter but I hope to minimize any losses there to say 15 pips, or even make a small profit.
The EUR/CHF up trend is gaining strengh and hopefully will be a major booster.
Current stochastic is 57.04 and headed up while RSI is 58.15 and headed up.
As it stands after 3 days, system 2, which I officially dub the “Triple Bazooka method” or tripoka for short, is doing the best by being a hair above break even.
So thus far a system based purely on chance is beating a system based on logic and math, and the system based on logic and math is beating the slighlty less random system, (in which the currency pair is always fixed).
I find this outcome very promising for 2 reasons.
I absolutely love the idea that the tripoka method, which takes literally 5 minutes/day and is 100% stress free, could make money in the long term. When I go back to college in 5 weeks I won’t have time to focus on Forex much, so such an automatic cash machine would be sweet indeed.
System 3 has SL but no TP, which means profits could run very high, so reward/risk ratio could be 2.5 or even 3:1. Also, this system is very popular from what I see on these boards, indicating that it will probably work in the long term.
As I said I need to make millions within 2 decades, and if I can make 25% after tax annual returns on system 3 then I will be able to double my money every 2.5 years.
This means that after 10 years I will have 16 times my initial investment, after 15 years 64 times, and after 256 256 times.
Since I will be starting out in Forex with $25-100K, (Right now I am in small cap stocks, which are doing very well. I hope to add $6,000 to my after tax value and then move into oil stocks as peak oil wipes out all other stocks. Once I have $100K after tax value, I cash out before oil stocks go bust as oil age ends, and then go 100% Forex, with system 3, which by that time I will have demo traded for 10-15 years and will be 100% confident in trusting my money to).
So right now I am 21, and by 35 I should be able to start real Forex trades, and by age 50 hope to have $6.4 million. This would let me retire comfortably or, since I plan to become a doctor, and hopefully love my job, I may choose to stay on till 60, when I’ll have $102 million, or 70, $1.6 billion but no later than 75, $6.4 billion.
At that point I may decide to become a philanthropist and set up a trust that would build and operate a chain of free hospitals.
Of course 25% net returns for 40 years may be impossible, since I doubt one can make $20 billion + trades even in Forex. Or maybe you can but it would take more time and require several major brokers, and lots of “people” to handle it.
Well for now lets see if system 3 truly works.
On that final thought, (of working) Bazooka, would you mind letting us know the cumalative record of your system so far?
How much are your 3 accounts worth? And what is the win loss record for each?
Good night and happy pip hunting to all.
system 1: well the bazooka system is having a real ****ty time of it. So far 0-3 and the current trade is down 7.7 pips, with today’s trade being a long. So far system 1 is down 3% after 3 completed trades.
system 2. tripooka system is turning out to be a monster.
Yesterday’s trades went as such.
EUR/JPY long was stopped out for 25 pip loss, but WHAT A NIGHT WE HAD! CHF/JPY short TP of 50 and NZD/USD long also TP of 50 pips!
Then today’s trades were as such:
NZD/USD, again long, GBP/CHF short and AUD/USD short.
NZD/USD stopped out as did GBP/CHF but AUD/USD stopped out at a profit of 17 pips!
This is because I am instiuting an important rule change, a manual trailing stop.
Whenver I check my trades and see a 20-24 pip profit, I change SL so that I will be stopped out at +5 profit.
At 30+ pip profit I change SL to +50% of my profit at the time.
In this case AUS/USD was up 34 pips when I checked so I changed SL to +17 and good thing too, because minutes later trend reversed and I found my self looking at $6.95 profit instead of going into the weekend negative.
Overall this system is 5-7, 42% profitable trades! And most important, after only 4 days, it up 1.82%!
Damned bazooka, did you have a good idea or what?
system 3,
today this sytem was all about the yen, specifically ordering me to short the CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY.
I did and unfortunately EUR/JPY immediately went against me, stopped out, but only 25 pips, as I have changed SL to 25 instead of 30.
as we go into the weekend here is how is hwo it stands.
system 3 is 0-3 in closed trades, down 3% but except for CHF/JPY short , down 7.5pips, the rest are ok.
EUR/GBP short up 3.2 pips, EUR/CHF long 10.7 pips and CAD/JPY short up 47.4 pips!
incidently, when I checked earlier CAD/JPY was up 60 so I reset the SL to +30, which it is approaching.
Overall I am very hopeful of this system as back testing shows promise.
Overall note: original bazooka system is in a dry patch, with 3 straight stop outs and another likely on sunday.
However note that bazooka’s orginal system is as good, in terms of closed trades as system 3. Both down 3%.
And the Tripooka system, my personal favorite, (I secretly pray it makes a solid 1% return/week for the next 5 weeks so I can open a $50 Oanda account and start tradeing for real, and onyl 5 minutes/day, on random chance!)
Hopefully next week we will see a rally of the bazooka system, a vindication of system 3’s recent comeback and a continuation of the fantastic tripooka.
See you all on Sunday!