The HUF: Hungarian Forint

Beginner Questions
1

Looking at the technicals, we are hitting the next fib line. Anyone have any information about the Hungarian Forint that might help me decide on my strategy: HOLD or CLOSE OUT

HUF.jpg641×513 37.7 KB

2

Wow I trade a lot of crosses but I have never heard of the HUF. Looking at your chart it looks like you had a stop order already placed, if price hit it just take the loss and move on to the next trade. Here is a question i ask myself all the time, are the reasons I got in the the trade still valid? If so stick with it, if not get out period. If your here asking for some random posters advice to hope they say stay in just so you have an excuse to stay in, get out. If you ever start hoping, praying, wishing, get out. At least that’s my rules.

3

Thanks for the advice MeiHua. My stop has not hit yet…but i’m almost there. I got into the trade close to the 38 fib line…with a stop right underneath it. I’m not moving my stop. If it hits 220…i’m out, as i originally set. But as you are aware…you dont hear about the HUF that often, but it happens to be a favorite trade of many forex traders…mainly because of the volatility. But anyway…i’m posting here to see if anyone else is in this trade as well, and has any insight that i have not yet come accross. The internet is not flooded with analysts reviewing the HUF :slight_smile:

4

glad to hear you stick to your stops. Sorry I could not be of more assistance in trading the HUF.

5

Hi, Fundamentals looking pretty desperate for the Huf at the moment, I’d be inclined to hold for the next week or two if your lot size is small.
Do a google search for Hungary economy watch blog for an in depth outlook, I can’t post link as I’m a newbie.
Steve

6

Agreed…hungry doesn’t look good, but I’m not ready to say that the USD is the safest bet. I am not sure if the volatility in USD/HUF is due primarily to the dollars fluctuation…or news about hungry (which doesn’t come out that often). Do you trade the florint.

7

I’m just starting forex trading, wasn’t planning on trading the USDHUF as the spreads are too high for a short-term trades but I might look for a long term buy, if you have an ideas for buy limits based on the charts I’d be interested.

I keep an eye on the Hungarian financial news because my partner is from there and we have a share of a house over there. Hungary is one of the European economies that is being propped up by the IMF/EU, without any real chance of repaying, but the new government do not seem inclined to follow the austerity measures expected of them. Either by a deliberate default or the withdrawal of IMF/EU lending facilities, a collapse of the HUF seems inevitable.

I agree that USD is not the safest bet either, but who is? The banks have screwed most countries economies, it’s just a question of the interest rates on the national debts. The US can service its debts for the time being and hungary, greece etc haven’t a hope.
BTW, from what I can see on the chart next support around 218-220. I’d be inclined to keep SL at 220 and look for another opportunity to buy if price finds support.
Good luck with trading

8

Interesting article titled ‘USD/HUF a 6995 Pip Trend Offers a Lesson In Strength Analysis’ at Daily FX
USDHUF chart and EURHUF charts over the last 3 months are nearly identical.
7000 pips would buy me a nice summer holiday!

9

I think I read that one…but the guy was recommending a buy way up there. Since then…the bottom has fallen out now might be the right time to jump back in…but I don’t wanna catch a falling knife either.

10

Which broker do you use?

11

I trade on FXCM

12

I like to trade and track the USD/Scandinavian pairs myself, and regardless of the quote currency, the dollar looks to rebound either the latter part of this week, or early next week. From a weekly standpoint that may not matter to you, but that’s what I’m seeing up ahead.

13

Many people are saying that the dollar is about to “stampede” back up…but last week, many were calling for a 1.20 handle for the Eur/Usd, and we all know how that ended up. The truth is…both the EUR and the USD are in a downward spiral. The only difference is…one week the EUR is garbage…and the next week, the USD is even bigger garbage. I’ve been dabbling with USD/NOK and USD/SEK lately.

  1. Why do you like the USD/Scans so much?
  2. Which is your favorite…and why?
14

  1. They move massively compared to other pairs, but they behave just the same. I feel they respond less to Scandinavian news, so you only need to keep track of US news for the most part, and even that’s rare. From what I’ve seen, you can get a good read from the USDX and other larger USD pairs to determine which way the USD/Scans are going to move. I just feel like if you can get a good read on these, the sky is the limit. And there’s still enough liquidity in them to where they never slam on the brakes like you’ll see in a USD/TRY chart for example. They also play to the one major indicator I use very well, which I can’t say for every pair. I think they really fly under the radar because of the volatility and higher spreads people fear them, so there’s a nice reward out there for those who don’t and can stay the course even after a loss.

  2. USD/DKK is a nice one to scalp for me, since Oanda usually sets it at a 5 pip spread. For longer plays, I have no preference, they all pay very well! :smiley:

The indicators are stretched out even more than before with the USD, almost to critical mass, and major fib lines are about to get hit, so like I said if not later this week, early next week is when to expect a nice retracement.

15

OK…if the USD makes a move this week…i’ll be watching some of those Scandinavian pairings.