So I have seen so many videos of “pro’s” showing you how to trade and that the more confluence there is the better your chances…
I beg to ask the question though… If the majority of traders are OBVIOUSLY trading off of their “tools” such as MA’s SnR and fibs and also the majority of traders lose . . . then perhaps the more confluence there is the more dangerous and unlikely it is.
The market Makers know exactly how these tools work and from this they know the likely areas where traders have the stops ready and waiting . . . so you MUST think that 2,3,4 different tools pointing to an area of confluence will be a BIG target for the money makers and very very easy to see from their point of view.
Will the Market Makers just let all of us see a perfect area of confluence and make profits from it? no, they will stop us out and I would imagin price going the total oposite direction…
So I then have to ask the question. If 2,3,4 conluent points are easier for the market makers to target our stops then the following might be true.
“the more indicators/tools you use the more you show your hand to them by “being lead” to certain areas where you will feel the need to enter a trade, thus simply letting the Market Makers manipulate YOU into trading in the exact same price level as all the other mugs…”
So the logical answer would be to use no tools which can lead you to have stops in likely targeted areas…
So maybe there is infact only one way to trade successfully. If price is going up, buy. If price is going down, sell.
This then means we all trade with useless tools when were no better off than guessing “up or down”. At least doing this would mean your stops are in random places and unlikley to be in “confluent” areas along with the 95% who lose!!
would make sence because we humans like to make things more complicated than they are so if the Market Makers give us these tools for free. They laugh when we happily take them…
hmm
Well I jump from learning one method to the next and I don’t feel i’m getting anywhere… Now onto learning Elliot Wave Theory but I can’t help but think… I wont be learning it for long…
Confluence is important and good, the problem with losing traders is that they are impatient to wait for enough or the right confluence and confirmation of that confluence.
actually you are 100% on to something. Lets see if you can turn this theory into something usable, because if you do then you will have a real firecracker on your hands.
Think you’re going to have to get a tin-foil hat soon to stop these all-powerful Market Makers from reading your brainwaves with their space satellites to find out where your stops are.
Seriously though there’s stops all over the place. Intra-day stops, stops around swings, position traders stops, etc. The market is made up of lots of different types of participants who are looking at a range of timeframes and objectives. You don’t need to worry about it all too much. Just look at your daily and 4H charts and you’ll see the obvious levels and footprints where traders are interested. Key off them (which takes patience) and have good money management and things will be fine - don’t have to worry about some Market Maker bogeyman hiding in the closet.
Good post Epidot, but you are mixing a lot of things.
If the majority of traders are OBVIOUSLY trading off of their “tools” such as MA’s SnR and fibs and also the majority of traders lose
The majority of traders are amateurs, only a few are professionals. Professionals really KNOW how to use those tools. For example you can know how to use a computer but IT pro really know how to profit from it.
The market Makers know exactly how these tools work and from this they know the likely areas where traders have the stops ready and waiting
Of course big sharks know how those tools works, they are professionals in making money, they can see where stop losses are. But those stop losses are mostly from amateur traders, that is why, sometimes you see a false breakout before a major move… if you are into PA frequently you see it as a pin bar or an engulfing candle.
Will the Market Makers just let all of us see a perfect area of confluence and make profits from it? no, they will stop us out and I would imagin price going the total oposite direction…
Yes and no, big sharks will let us get to a perfect area of confluence…why? it is a supply/demand game, price will travel where liquidity is.
Areas of confluence are good for entry points not to place a stop loss.
Those placing SLs close to confluence zones are amateurs trying to outsmart the market or trying to pick tops and bottoms. If there are enough of those fools then price will continue to travel in the same direction until liquidity dries out.
“the more indicators/tools you use the more you show your hand to them by “being lead” to certain areas where you will feel the need to enter a trade, thus simply letting the Market Makers manipulate YOU into trading in the exact same price level as all the other mugs…”
Actually, the only thing big sharks care is liquidity in order to take profits… for them words like overbought or oversold do not exist…
So the logical answer would be to use no tools which can lead you to have stops in likely targeted areas…
I couldn’t agree more with that statement
So maybe there is infact only one way to trade successfully. If price is going up, buy. If price is going down, sell.
Well not the only way, but maybe the safest one.
This then means we all trade with useless tools when were no better off than guessing “up or down”. At least doing this would mean your stops are in random places and unlikley to be in “confluent” areas along with the 95% who lose!!
No, the tools are not useless, what make them useless are the amateurs trading with them.
You should not guess a trade, you should stack probabilities on your favor, that and a good MM is the key to profitability.
would make sence because we humans like to make things more complicated than they are so if the Market Makers give us these tools for free. They laugh when we happily take them…
Yes we humans like to make things complicated, remember is a game of supply and demand, up or down…how hard should it be?
Well I jump from learning one method to the next and I don’t feel i’m getting anywhere… Now onto learning Elliot Wave Theory but I can’t help but think… I wont be learning it for long…
That is why, that for some “fx experts” is easier to make money selling courses than trading.
you need to first distinguish what type of trader you are?
experience plays a major role, study and practice charting… have a journal to see where things work and wont work… study and practice more and more…
repeat and repeat till you throw up! Then spend some time in forum where some traders offer insightful pics of trades… see and learn why they have that analysis
I didn’t realize it when i first read this. But i almost guarantee system hopping is killing your success. Stick with 1 system that fits you or you believe will fit you and learn it inside and out. System hopping is a classic newbie mistake that ends up costing. I think why you are seeing what you do is you have system hopped so much you have a huge “tool box” but are probably not applying each tool to effectively or properly even. Just practice using 1 or 2 things at first master them then add. Linda Bradford Raschke said all you need to be successful is 1 set up that you have completely mastered. [B]JUST 1[/B] and she is a market wizard.
I think you need to ‘system hop’, one of the reasons for system hopping is that most systems are rubbish so once a newbie has realised this, the most sensible thing to do is move on.
The trick is to find something decent in the first place and stick to it, and like I always say, these can be found in the most popular and enduring threads on this forum, they are such for a very good reason.
That is my opinion also. I am system hopping because most are rubbish… If I am not convinced by one then I just cannot justify applying it to test for a period of time. But this is not my main problem.
My main problem is “contradiction”
Many different professionals who I look up to all clash with eachothers opinions and methods. This throws me off…
for example.
I was into Nial fuller and Hectors candle stick trading with SnR, then what happens?
I find Martin cole who says NO NO NO the chart is just a facade which the Market makers want you to use to blind you and trick you, you need to trade whats going on in the minds of the MM behind the chart such as the 3 phases.
so I am thrown from one thing to the other and find it hard to justify following one method when all these guys have very good arguements not to do it “his way but my way”
You say decent methods or systems are found in these threads, in the popular ones… But most people fail… What systems are they trying to use? would assume the exact ones your refering to…
Yes I do agree with them three phases but how does that blend in with SnR, trends, fibs, Candle patterns…
How many traders use these exact things and fail over and over.
I wish there was a definitive sumary explaining why so many fail with simple SnR and Candle patterns while at the same time, so many swear by it being the best way to trade… whats the key…
I can not point out any particular thread, my system is discretionary and is a mix of differents techniques. but let me number the pilars of my trading:
S/D
PA
Trendlines
Volatility
Pivots and Fibs
Volume
MM
I use indicators but only to get some sort of market sentiment in the time frame I am trading
Price only has two places to go, up or down, because of supply and demand
So the first thing you need to master is supply and demand levels.
