Hello guys, can you please tell me how do you find these stats:
During a " manual " backtest on a period of 6 x 20 days on 6 different month, the results are:
Month 1: +16,3 %
Mounth 2: + 4,18 %
Mounth 3: -2,7 %
Mounth 4: -1,65 %
Mounth 5: +20.64 %
Mounth 6: +15,4 %
300 trades have been done.
Maximal drawdown: 19 %
Average drawdown: 5.54 %
Maximum risk per trade: 2 %
It is a scalping strategy but it require to stay in front of the computer all day long… is it profitable ?
To much Drawdown,
300 trades in 6 months isnt nothing, if you call it scalping,
For instance, I scalp, and in the last 24 hours, I have made 120 MAnual trades, 100 wins, 20 loses, For 5% balance increase, but used way lower risk then i usually do, around 10% per trade. I should of hit 25% today, testing entry
Good luck,
Do you really believe you could trade a $10,000 account with those levels of risk?
I don’t see you trading an account much bigger than $1,000 before your psychology tears your trading habits apart. Maybe if you were a millionaire already and didn’t care about the account that would be a different story… but from being on the forums for more than a few days… I know you are not
Yes, I believe I can trade a $10,000 account, even a $100,000
Im a gambler, If I believe in myself, and my strat, i have no worries,
Great profits to you,
Then you are delusional. I just hope you don’t have any of your self-worth wrapped up in this venture, otherwise things could get real ugly, real fast.
Thanks for the pat on the back,
Meanwhile, you just continue to hang out at BabyPips, with your 5 years of awesome encouragment to traders,
Isnt that like a Highschool Senior hanging out at the grade school down the road rockin kids for change.
I will outtrade you anyday Little fella,
AND, I have given you much respect, thru the 20 months ive been here, NOT A FEW DAYS, AND, have had convo with you, so that just proves you spill **** out of your mouth without hinking, but i understand you 2%ers, you guys get angry really fast, but then again, running inplace and going nowhere can do that to a Forex Vet.
GOOD DAY SIR!
OK, Im out of Line, Im just fired up, as alot of good has been working out for me in my forex career.
up 59% in 7 trading days, live account. Using Forex fundamentals like SL, and desire to be successful. Which, really, is what it takes.
The kid asked a question, and seeing im very good at scalping, as, actually a few here know, I gave my opinion.
I dont want a urination match with you, we are here for the same reason, Its just, my Swagger is painted allllll over my account,
I can actually take this week off, like a vacation, because my daily goal is 5%, and Im 5 days ahead of my 30 day cycle,
See, I have a plan, a very, good, plan
Keep rockin it Akea, just like I said to you many of times.
Sorry guys but this is BS
I trade 4% per trade, over 1200 trades over 2.5 years, with a 25% max drawdown in less than one week.
If your stats show that you can make it back, and that 25% is the maximum cut off line, then go ahead.
(This is a responce to the first thread, not the argument after 
)
The monthly returns look great, nothing at all to worry about there, a couple of consecutive losing months for small amounts is nothing to be worried about.
The 19% max drawdown would worry me, although the 5% average DD looks quite promising. You can backtest until you are blue in the face, but you never really know when that max DD is going to be exceeded in the future. Maybe the 19% is an outlier, that you might see once in 10 years, or maybe its not, and you’ll see those kinds of drawdowns fairly regularly. Its a tough call.
300 trades and 6 months probably isnt a sufficient sample size, but its better than nothing. The encouraging thing is that you are thinking about drawdowns, and you are being completely realistic about the possibility that you might get a few losing months along the way.
It seams like a good base to start working from, and even if you half the position size to get the drawdown under control, the returns are still very repectable.
There are plently of guys claiming 100% a month, but to my knowledge, noone in history has ever become rich on that basis, but there are plenty who did by making 25% a year or less.
@ insidertrading, I wouldn’t be too concerned about drawdown. As long as you’re using a valid, profitable system, drawdown shouldn’t faze you at all. I kinda discussed this topic in another thread:
Why do people recommend risking 2% per trade?
I found that drawdown in the long-term won’t matter, even if you wipe out 90% of your account. The key is to actually know that your system works and has some sort of logic behind it, and using appropriate lot sizes for your expected win% and R:R (there’s some interesting info on the thread about the Kelly formula, which can be used to calculate your optimal lot size).
With regards to sample size, have you considered testing your strategy under different market conditions? Instead of just testing six consecutive months, go back in time and randomly test other periods. I’d also recommend testing other currency pairs. I usually test AT LEAST the EURUSD and USDJPY as both pairs are the least correlated. Maybe throw in a com dollar pair like AUDUSD or USDCAD. You need to backtest to such an extent that you develop 99.99% faith in your system. If you have doubts and start trading live, those doubts will eventually eat you alive and cause you to trade sub-optimally or even panic and ditch your system in the middle of a trade. This happened to me a few times and I’d prematurely close trades. Just my 2 cents.