Very true! You would want to be selective of whatâs been going on for each pair or only throw the strat on pairs known for ranging more than trending. Also, a tight stop could reduce the damage if there is a break.
XIV
well yeah you are right. there is no âsystemâ out there that works for all cases. 2008 was not the normal case.
Exactly! it works in ranging markets. However, in trending, youâll be toasted!
Where did it say he only bought the up break of the lows? I read it as shorting the highs too.
2008 could have been extremely profitable:)
lol and do you guys really expect this volatility to go away anytime soon? if you do then then you are a fool. europe isnt âfixedâ yet ladies. we still got usa with 15 trillion of debt and etc.
Oh yea, 2008 was one that broke the barriers. Some traders prefer to do the whole process manually, without any indicators to signal entry points, so you could opt for either one. But since you are on a demo, you may want to test out your indicators -and keep track of the results you get.
Hi ngautam,
Have you heard of trading platform like TradeStation to program and backtest your strategy? If not I strongly advise you to learn more about that.
In the fall of 2005, I lost $5,000 with a system that was very good during the 3 months of live trading but when I decided to trade real money, it all went down the drain. Why? Because the system was good ONLY during those past 3 months and stopped working in the months following the summer and thatâs why I lost $$ here.
After losing money, I learned how to program and backtest trading systems using TradeStation and thatâs how I found out that the system was good only during the summer but failed after and before the summer months. Knowing that BEFORE getting into the market would have saved me a lot of $$ here.
Thatâs why I ordered books on how to program those trading systems so that I can backtest them to see how good they were in the past which can tell you a lot about what the system can do in the future (ex: how much can you lose each day/week if it goes against you, etcâŚ).
I donât bet $1 until I have backtested a system on the past 5 years, you should do the same.
Cheers,
Merlin
Yes, the past can really predict the future, and always be away of new forex systems, u need to really test them through
Merlin! thank you very much for your reply. that is an invaluable tip. I will definitely look into that.
I understand your pointâŚit may work in the current market conditions but these markets change so it may not work at that time. I modified my âsystemâ a bitâŚmy broker is world wide and they tell me what are the current open positions and how many percent is short at which price. that info helps a lot! if 65 % of the market thinks its going upâŚits going up in a hour, 3 hours or a dayâŚso yeah lolâŚbut i will look into what you are saying 
From what Iâve studied, retail trader sentiment in FX should be looked at in a contrarian manner. For example, if 65% of traders are long, you should be looking for opportunities to short. This makes sense because most retail traders LOSE money. If you are on the opposite side of the crowdâs trade, that should give you a slight edge.
XIV
First of all, you donât have access to what everybody is thinking every second of the trading day and even if you do (like for those who uses Level 2/Market Depth), the market can change on a dime the next second. A good trader doesnât think like that, he will simply REACT and ADAPT himself to what the market will be doing instead of thinking âOh I think itâs going to go up todayâ.
The majority of people loses because they donât know when to get in and when to get out. They either donât get in exactly when they should so they miss their entry point and even if they get in at the right time, they donât exit as planned or when they get in and are losing, they tend to stay in the trade a little bit too long because they think that it might turn around. Biiiiiiiiiig mistake.
In fact, thanks for mentioning this because thatâs the 2nd reason why I went with TradeStation: To turn myself into a robot. As I mentioned earlier, I want to program a system and backtest it to see if it was good in the past and when itâs profitable, I use the Automated trading feature of TradeStation so that IT THINKS AND TRADES FOR ME so that I get in EXACTLY at the right time I should get in based on my system and get out EXACTLY when I want it to and not 2 minutes too late or too early.
I learned in the past that the more you turn into a robot and leave your emotions aside, the better trader you will be so instead of turning myself into a robot, why not use the closest thing to a robot possible and use a software to trade for me while I watch and confirm every entries/exits of course.
So backtesting a system is the 1st tip but using an automated trading platform is to me is the 2nd best advice I can give to a new trader because knowing when to get in and out based on past data is one thing, MAKING SURE you will get in and out at those precise entry/exit points is another.
Cheers,
Merlin
umm such a simple system here⌠wait for the update
FXGame Transaction History.pdf (207 KB)FXGame Transaction History 2.pdf (182 KB)
lol how much money have u made bejo?
well u can see my accountsâŚthey are recent cuz my old broker only allows demo for 1 month so i had to start another accountâŚthis was just to shut you up :32:
In my early of trading i use to use a strategy similar to yours. It was trading highs and lows of the day.
The best thing i found out you can do is to go with the long term trend. Dont just go short because it has broken the lower time frame unless the longer term is pointing down aswell.
One thing i did was spot outside bar reversal patterns, inside bar reversal patterns, dojis, bullish/bearish 3 method continuation patternon the daily charts. If those signals where a bullish signal on the daily i would then zoom a 15 minute chart and trade the high of the the confirmation bar for those patterns.
For instance if it was a bullish outside bar reversal pattern on the daily. I would wait until the next day (after the outside bar) and trade the break of the outside bars high. This increased my chances massively.
Good luck hope that helped.
Well said! In fact, instead of trading Highs AND Lows, it should be Highs OR Lows. You trade only Longs on the Low pivot points when the trend is up or you trade only Shorts on the High pivot points when the trend is down. One of the first line that I heard when I learned DayTrading was âDonât fight the trendâ. So if the trend is up, donât trade in the short side, youâll lose all your gains. You can use MAs and add a daily volume indicator like I do to know whoâs in control.
Donât forget the 3 bar break pattern when an upbar breaks the high of the previous 3 bars or vice versa, thatâs also a nice confirmation that the trend is reversing.
In your example, I would have entered at the Open of the breakout bar since the previous barâs low is lower than the low of the 3 bars before it.
Merlin
lol yeah sorry thats what i meantâŚlows or highs. I look at weekly lows or highs and then trade on a 4 hour chart.
Nice fading strategy and congratulations on your excellent results. 
Hi ngautam. I am very interested in your new system but tell me how do you determine that you are approaching the weekly low or high? I am still a beginner myself
Hi daniel, Please enlighten me what is the method of trading the daily high and low, I am very interested
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