Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

Beginner Questions
8198

That’s fine jonnycab and I agree with you, technically. I’ve been talking about a bull run for the last two weeks. We had it.

So, what’s next? I have a pretty strong opinion and it would mean posting my charts and revealing too much of my hand to really show it, so I won’t go there, but I stick with what I said: I expect an attack of 1.2930 on the EUR again, maybe gunning 1.3180 first, and I expect 1.2930 to crumble, given the sentiment. Maybe not without a good old punch up first.

For the GBP I expect an attack of 1.4890 again. Perhaps a run up and stall at 1.5230 first.

We will see. I am not under pressure to trade at the moment, but like I say, I’ll look to short the bull runs on either currency. I’m happy to wait days, if not weeks, before I enter again.

There are some chart pattern reasons too I support this, really based on my feeling about how the market attacks and fades chart patterns recently. Nothing scientific. I could get all ICT and post a dozen different levels and say ‘oh yeah, the market did just what I said’, but it’s less meaningful, anyone can do that.

As an exercise, look at the daily and try and find a ‘fair price’ for the last 12/24 months and identify if we are above or below that price, then use that as an equilibrium. Then, look for technical hints to sell above it and buy below it.

Grow jonnycab, grow!

8199

And of course, once the market opens, all bets are off and I’ll let the tape tell me the real story. Remain flexible, but have an opinion :slight_smile:

I love it, we all have different opinions, life would be a bit boring if we didn’t.

8200

I really don’t mind this label and I’m very proud to be part of his clique. He’s acted above and beyond his call and he still is. I might be taking snipes at him in the odd post here and there, but that’s because I believe he’s reading this thread and I think he can take it. Like I’ve said a few times, I still love him and forever will.

I just wish he hadn’t had another moment. I hope this time he’s really worked it out of his system. Naughty boy!

8201

And to be clear, I didn’t mean it as a shot against ICT or people who believe in his methods. I still consider myself a believer in most of his methods. I simply did not want to broadly paint a label on everyone who reads, contributes, or lurks on this thread and call them ICT disciples.

8202

Leecote - the story about the books is true, I realised that many authors were not real traders, just selling books to ‘dummies’ like me, I have only 2 books - both about cot and both by real traders - see Thrax’s list.

The bonds I have an interest in is the us 10yr - nothing else - it helps me to focus.

I use this bond as an indicator of what the ‘investor’ is thinking - short term, how he is reacting to news, risk and sentiment, I try to ‘feel’ his sense of greed or fear - when I see the price falling live, like a stone, I can see him saying ’ wow do’nt want those safe things - what can I buy with a better return and maybe a little more risk’.

This is where ICT comes in, he has pointed out the usdx triad div as a ‘clincher’ in one of his videos for getting long, he then used the usual entry tools.

Dailyfx’s John Kicklighter has a good article on the present risk environment ( and also the Cyprus analysis)

In my learning curve I prefer to use current analysis, current thinking, and not material written some years ago, I have found that this dynamic, ever changing, market will simply not fit into what was written then.

The one thing I have learned about the 10yr, is seems to be more predictable that forex, many times I have thought that maybe I’ll try a trading it on a demo - now I’m thinking…

8203

Current EBS (Interbank Market) EUR/USD rate at c12934. Down 124 pips from prev. weeks close.

There are large bids at c12880.

That’s where the line is drawn. Is it going to hold? Nobody knows.

8204

An example of 10yr’s predictability on the daily - who in their wildest dreams would not have sold at 133.00 (beginning of this month)
Image from barchart.com (ZNM13, daily nearest)

8205

I’ve thought long and hard about my analysis I posted this afternoon, done outside McDonalds on the way back from the airport. I’ve also done a little digging around what the analysts are saying. What Peterma says above is golden advice: Look at current thinking.

So, what have I read, where has this left me? Well, it doesn’t change my outlook for the next day or two, but it has made me question how much of an impact the ‘disaster’ in Cyprus will have in the longer term. The upshot is I’ll be monitoring other countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece to see how their population reacts. I imagine not at all.

Long story short: Sell off some Euros over the next couple of days, but then look to buy the dips. Cyprus represents 0.3% of the Eurozone and in the grand scheme of things, their economy doesn’t matter to the rest of Europe.

This has also made me question what I think about the Cable. I guess I’ll steer clear of the pair for now and try to capitalise on the liquidity in the Euro.

Let the tape print out the story and be flexible. Monitor the technicals closely this week: Market flow and market structure.

Trading isn’t easy, I seem to be flip-flopping today. I feel a bit dizzy.

8206

Thrax your analysis is spot on, they are already back pedalling on the bail out terms, but fibre is down and when you see all the protests etc on tv it will prob fall some more - usually below real/fair value.

Good analysis on forexlive, Cyprus on 1.1million people - but if they are all chasing you with pitchforks it seems a lot.

8207

I think my sentiment can be summed up as confused and I will go so far as to extend that to the majority of investors. I’ve got a whole bunch of other analysis that I’m not going into that supports buying the dips on the Cable, but it’s going to take a structure change for me to commit to that pair. Besides, I strongly dislike trying to trade both pairs, I try to choose one and stick with it for the a day or two at a time. Entering into this week I choose the Euro because I anticipate there will be heightened confusion and therefore liquidity in it.

Best of luck guys, it’s going to be messy.

8208

I’ve never seen a gap like this. I simply don’t know what to think of it. Wow.

Actually, it’s smack at the bottom of the support of the falling wedge on the 4hr. I presume it will only go up if it holds. It had only just broken outside of the wedge to the north on Friday, and whilst I anticipated a move back inside the wedge, I didn’t anticpate it to be like this. Jeez.

8209

If it goes below the fig then …

8210

See the barrier that the fig is providing, see too where is the ‘pressure’, In one hour and Japan may provide the impetus one way or the other.

8211

Have to admit that I went short at 20, not based on ICT teaching, based more on experience of the way things work out on the EU.

I am very mindful of the gap and the probability of it being closed at around 3000, so I am in a short term trade only, there may be a lot of media hype on Mon and Tue which could drive down fibre, so my plan is to ride this down, I know it’s not pretty but sometimes the forex works likes that.

My stop is above 50, the only reason is because it’s a recent Asian low, like I say, it’s not pretty.

8212

I could just wire you my long.

8213

I saw the headlines of the Cyprus bailout earlier but haven’t had a chance to read about it until now. I think you are right, the EUR will be in sell mode for the first couple days, at least.

This has got to be the most ridiculous terms of a bailout ever forged. This will cause a run on the banks as soon as they open. If depositors get stuck with the tax, nobody will deposit their money in the banks in the future because they will have zero trust toward them. My guess, if they continue with these terms, trust in the banking sector will dry up, causing mass withdrawals, which will in turn cause bank failures, which will further erode the economy, and around and around the drain their economy goes. As you said Cyprus is just a small part of the European economy, but this could have far reaching effects for future bailouts. Citizens of other countries could become wary of the banking sector as well. If depositors could be taxed in Cyprus, couldn’t depositors be taxed the same way in other countries to help pay for their bailouts as well?

Aren’t there any intelligent politicians left in the world?

After the market opened, I was thinking the 1.30- 1.3030 levels would come back into play this week, but I’m not so sure the gap is going to close this week

8214

Yes. For the man on the street.

Which nations do you have in mind that will require a bailout? Most of the heavy lifting has been done in Europe and the foundations laid for future growth. Granted, one or two might stumble but the IMF still has a lot of firepower remaining and if they decide to, they can use it. And it would be spectactular.

If there aren’t any required over the next so many years, maybe some legal thinkers get together and stop this from happening again.

Yes. This is key. Sentiment. Pull it out the Jenga and the whole lot will wobble with scary consequences.

Yes, it’s a frightening admission and precedence. But, compared to the deal that the Americans and British got, this one is not as bad. We got nothing. They are getting shares in the bank to the value of the haircut to their savings. So it’s a change of asset. They won’t see it as this right this second, but it will be explained to them that if they hold onto it, like they were going to anyway because this is their savings, it should be worth more in the future of the cash it just consumed. Providing Europe grows.

Granted they didn’t ask to buy shares, but in effect this is what is happening. Now, if the foundations for a prosperous Europe is put in place, they don’t have anything to worry about, right? Yeah right. :28:

The more I’ve been reading and thinking about it, it’s a sly move to save a few quid, by rattling the smallest of bones in the EU. Yes it is nasty, but sometimes business is like that. I know I’ve been the sore end of it on a personal level and it’s why I’m now a hopeful trader.

Ok. But how much further down will it realistically go over the next few weeks? Maybe we have another leg down. Maybe not.

8215

I’m now super conscious that I’m de-railing this thread from it’s traditional use. Sorry. I’ll post some ICT style charts at some point to bring it back on point once the party is over. I’m a big gossip and this is just too interesting for me not to talk about and I’ve got nowhere else to go right now. :smiley:

8216

How do you do multiple quotes like in your last reply?

I don’t have any nations in mind for the next bailout. I’m just thinking it may happen again. who knows, maybe France is up next.

As far as your reply to my snide comments about politicians, yes, I’ve been thinking about this one too. If they keep the tax to account balances over $100K Euros, as I read in an article, then they have taxed the wealthy without the struggle of passing a higher tax rate. This could become a popular move because the poor always think the rich should pay their fair share, even if they already do. They are getting something in return for it, but right now those shares of stock would not look very tempting to me and are much riskier than cash in hand. We’ll have to wait and see how they structure the tax, loan, or whatever they want to call it

I hope the gap closes, because I have a spot picked out where I want to sell at. Shorting where price is right now seems like a high risk proposition. I know gaps have not closed in the past, but I have not studied them enough to feel good about a trade here. How much further can this drop? I think if price can break 1.2870, the next area of interest will be 1.2650.

[B][/B]

Which nations do you have in mind that will require a bailout? Most of the heavy lifting has been done in Europe and the foundations laid for future growth. Granted, one or two might stumble but the IMF still has a lot of firepower remaining and if they decide to, they can use it. And it would be spectactular.

If there aren’t any required over the next so many years, maybe some legal thinkers get together and stop this from happening again.

Yes. This is key. Sentiment. Pull it out the Jenga and the whole lot will wobble with scary consequences.

Yes, it’s a frightening admission and precedence. But, compared to the deal that the Americans and British got, this one is not as bad. We got nothing. They are getting shares in the bank to the value of the haircut to their savings. So it’s a change of asset. They won’t see it as this right this second, but it will be explained to them that if they hold onto it, like they were going to anyway because this is their savings, it should be worth more in the future of the cash it just consumed. Providing Europe grows.

Granted they didn’t ask to buy shares, but in effect this is what is happening. Now, if the foundations for a prosperous Europe is put in place, they don’t have anything to worry about, right? Yeah right. :28:

The more I’ve been reading and thinking about it, it’s a sly move to save a few quid, by rattling the smallest of bones in the EU. Yes it is nasty, but sometimes business is like that. I know I’ve been the sore end of it on a personal level and it’s why I’m now a hopeful trader.

Ok. But how much further down will it realistically go over the next few weeks? Maybe we have another leg down. Maybe not.[/QUOTE]

8217

Peterma, I meant to say…I’ve seen your beloved Mourne mountains. I have relatives who live in Skerries, North County Dublin and have seen them across the water many many times. They have a saying that if you can’t see the mountains of Mourne because of the bad weather, then there should be good weather coming…or is it the other way round? Lol, it sounds like my forex trading…I have an unclear view of the conditions giving me an uncertain picture of what the future holds! Aah well, just have to keep at it. Good luck this week everyone.