Good morning, Can I have some advice on the USD/JPY pair please? I look at the daily chart and I can see support at the 101.400. So I’d bought a small lot. I then read a post on this weeks trading and Intraforex says the pair are, ‘extremely Bearish’, and may lower to 100.50 by end of week.
What have I missed please?
Thank you. .ga. :-/
Dear Goingrashy,
welcome. I would say this: follow YOUR analysis, first of all. If you saw support at 101(.xx) then you saw support; nothing is fool-proof in Forex, and your reading of a chart may be as good as anyone else’s. This morning the Yen crosses are rising - I just bagged a few pips on AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY Buys. . . However, the USD/JPY is very vulnerable to developments not only in the risk-on/risk-off sense but also, specifically, to the USD event risks, of which there are plenty this Wednesday with the FOMC Rate Decision, Yellen press conference, MBS purchase updates, Taper updates, etc. I am short USD/CAD (which has been falling) and USD/JPY, but that is neither here nor there - the market is always right, not us!
Cheers.
Thank you,
Yeah I just thought Id ask.
As a Newbie there’s loads to learn and I’m at the High school section here and only trading micro pips.
For this chart I have used RSI and Stochastic and reversal analysis, and found that both Indicators were below 30 so thought that possible the support level was going to work…
Thanks for quick response…
Hello Goingrashy, you are welcome.
Looking at the Daily chart (in the first photo), you can see that the previous wedge, highlighted in the light blue box, provided continuation of the bullish trend when it broke compression, and that the current wedge, in the pink box, is replicating this technical scenario, albeit to a smaller degree: the difference seems to be that the market’s push to ever higher levels, which requires a lot more conviction, does not have the drive that was behind the speculation behind Japan’s first Quantitative Easing (stimulus) programme, which truly pushed this pair purely on pre-event speculation… But Japan is not about to up its devaluation of the Yen to higher levels, therefore conviction behind this pair’s rise seems to be more technical than fundamental, but, nonetheless, the next breakout could resume the general direction of trend to the upside; however, Yen crosses are going through spats of deleveraging in a general risk-off global sentiment (which is a huge debate in its own right), as investors’ fear has been initiated by the emerging markets crisis and over-leveraged carry positions (in the Yen crosses) are looking quite vulnerable…
On the four-hour chart you can see the support around the wedge floor (around 101.2(x)), and the pair bouncing off back up… thus confirming your bullish bias:
Cheers.
