Scotish breakaway effect?

Not sure where this goes or how valid the question is to any existing currencies, but where can we expect movement if the Scots break away in the next few days ? Chaos always has a gravy train somewhere in the mix, any idea’s for during or after this potential breakaway ?

Sell sell sell

Scotland will not break away from the uk. the pound will get stronger on the 18th sep. buy GBP/USD and sell EUR/GBP. alternatively reverse that lol i really doubt scotland will vote yes but stranger things have happened. I think it will move about 1% actually maybe it might affect pairs by 5% whatever happens there is an opportunity to make money here.

Hello everyone…

This question was tackled here…

http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/67680-scottish-independence-impact-gbp-o.html

:slight_smile:

My two-cent, from the mists of Scotland, is that nobody has a barking clue what is going to happen!!

However, I like MrQuickBuy’s approach… that is: be prepared for everything and the exact opposite!

Great fundamental event you can turn into profit. Guess, any territorial breakaway won’t carry positive effect on both affected parts so you have to be very “shrewd” trader or true patriot to expect economy or currency pickup in aftermath.

P.S. Bears time :slight_smile:

Personally I think it will be a tight vote (less than 3% difference between Yay/Nay) and that the UK will remain together as it is. I think we saw the GBP drop sharply amid uncertainty of the outcome of the vote and that we will see a sharp rally in the GBP after the vote shows Scotland remaining part of the UK. Given the rally in the GBP today I further think that should Scotland leave we may not see a drop far below the intra-day low reached yesterday.I don’t see the GBPUSD breakdown below 1.6000.

I would stay away of any GBP trade before the Scotish voting and react after the voting.

Agreed…

Bloomberg says if scotland seperate the pound may lose 10% haaaa if only. The thing to watch for is the pound changing before the vote is officially announced. Once they have counted some of the votes and have a good idea what the result is before the actual official result is announced. Need to keep an eye on that otherwise we may miss half of the move.

There is no certainty of any outcome, so anything can happen, I would keep myself out on that day.

If the move is big enough, and has volume behind it, it may continue the Pound bear trend or reverse it, so you may still make money out of the event in the aftermath… This is no ordinary news event, so I would personally not try to read anything into early polls or vote counts but wait for the official results and see what the markets did first…