Regardless what percentage of failed traders you want to believe we can agree that the majority fails (I think only about 2% succeed). Forget about the other traders and should you belong to the group of failures have you asked yourself why you fail?
Without going too much into it have you ever asked if forex trading is right for you? In my opinion the majority has not place in forex (don’t get me wrong, I love retail traders and how they are wrong almost all the time; it is amusing, but seriously ask yourself if you may be in the wrong trade altogether).
I am not trying to make fun at new traders or discourage them, just pointing out that this question should be addressed in my opinion and if you are not in the wrong trade then enjoy learning along the way.
Not only is that condescending, but also quite comical considering your recent “advice” on another thread.
Accumulating eur/usd longs like they were going out of fashion as prices approached 1.3350 wasn’t exactly your finest moment was it. http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/67934-things-make-you-go-hmmm.html
Talk about being in the wrong trade lol.
4 weeks & 4 handles later the “right & logical trade” was quite obviously shorting that pair for all it was worth, as was pointed out to you by Thalia an hour after your post.
And please don’t insult my intelligence by banging on about [I]different strategies/time references[/I] etc etc……you got it wrong mate, just like a good percentage of clueless institutional traders did, & do on a regular basis.
In fact most of those dummies were continuing to bet hard the “wrong way” the week before last at 1.31 too.
You appear to imply the clever boys & girls reside exclusively in the institutional circles.
Wrong again!
The vast majority lose money week after week & usually end up packing their belongings into cardboard boxes. It’s one of the reasons every industry desk has downsized considerably (& continue to do so) over the past few years.
Most of the savvy industry desks currently turning decent profits trading currencies & commodities this year have been focusing almost exclusively on very short-term models (both algo & non-algo driven), clipping profits out of high volume/short duration moves & will continue to do so until the environment tells them otherwise.
Got to admit after reviewing that thread and this one, it certainly belongs in the Hmmm class, all on its own. While I agree that most traders do fail, it is more on account of not applying themselves…
No one is born a genius and let’s face it, the term Genius is often an overated way of patting yourself in the back. And more than just a paltry few traders have moved on from the red zone to the green one…in time.
Bottom line: forex trading is not a walk in atm, it is a business model, one that requires application, strategy and discipline…
That’s what they all said at 3350 & 3100.
And what do the smart clients do when prices stall after climbing or dropping through trending legs?
Do they;
begin to protect their core position whilst waiting for the momentum flows & sentiment to tell them where the price pressures are building…or
begin placing counter trend bets because [I]price is at an apparently significant level & it must change direction soon[/I]
The market will always tell you where the short-term pressure points are at & when it does (& providing of course you have enough money to actually adopt this view) pyramid into the move as it’s unfolding, not when it’s moving against your core stake.
Considering the limited funds (& experience) most retail punters play the markets with, piggybacking strong momentum shifts is a pretty smart route to take. If finances allow, pyramiding the strongest of those shifts makes decent sense too.
“must change direction soon” Price doesn’t ‘have’ to do anything. That’s like when someone says it’s over bought or over sold. There’s no such thing.
#1 is the smart answer. If it’s at a decision point then wait until it tells you what it’s going to do. Not that you can’t counter trade but that’s obviously lower probabily.
The question in the first post. Is forex trading right for you? He’s right, everyone should ask that question. Sometimes the answer is yes, sometimes it’s no. That’s something you don’t know until you try.
I have admitted that I was wrong on the EURUSD and I never claimed that if you know how to trade properly that you get every trade right. I never stated that you need to be an institutional investor to know how to trade, that is something you assumed. I simply said that only about 2% figure out how to trade. No need to insult your intelligence by pondering on different strategies and time frames I think your wrong assumptions took care of that for me.
As I stated in the beginning this was not meant to insult anyone, just wanted to point out most should not be trading. The majority arrive at forex by clicking a banner or other form of advertisement or because a friend told them about it and they never take the time to educate themselves about it properly. You obviously missed the whole point here which is fine by me.
Perhaps if you’d omitted the direct & dismissive reference towards the retail community in your comments no such assumptions would have surfaced in the first place.
Most professionals ask themselves that question at least once every week, LOL.
And some end up surfing retail trading forums flogging courses and seminars for $200-300 a pop or pimping e-books on the magic of price action.
IMO, if you are doing profit consistently by trading markets you won’t even disturb you mind with queer reasonings about how you fit trading and vice versa. The point is that you can making wrong trades without realizing them, or pull out a lesson from it. If you feel you are not able to extract the reason of fail, then trading most probably is out of your professional fitness
Time for my 2 cents. I agree with cator on 2 and 3. I actually agree with him on one as well, but I consider TLB to be my friend and I’m writing one off to “did I really just post this?” I think we all make posts that after we take a further look we think maybe I could have put that a different way.
Is trading right for someone, well in my opinion no matter who you are or what you intend on doing you should ask yourself is this right for me, can I see myself doing this for 5,10,15 years? I also think that it’s better to ask and answer this question before you put your money up; no matter if it’s 10 cents or ten thousand dollars.
Everything and everyone has peaks and valleys. In sales sometimes you can do what you think is the perfect presentation and won’t make the sale; other times you can alsmost say F you and do make the sale. No different trading sometimes you believe you got it right, your tech, fundi, sentiment and/or VSA all agrees and flows and you get stopped out or trade goes the other way; other times no matter how little you analyze, the trade goes your way.
It’s not hard to be a retail trader, sales person, cook, fund manager etc., what’s hard is maintaining your play consistently with patience and discipline. I will use my favorite quote from thelastbear; “it’s a tough business out there and we need all the help we can get.” The problem is sometimes no matter how much help we get, things still don’t go our way and that’s what you have to learn how to deal with. Another reason why our money management and mindset are at least as important if not more than our trading method. Like I said my 2 cents
Gp
I am a newbie about 4 months in and have had my worst week of trading so far did OK on demo and up till the previous week was doing OK on live.
If you had asked me 5 days ago I would have replied yes I can trade but this week my reply may be the same but with way less confidence, next week may be even harder to answer.
The problem this newbie has with the question “can I trade?” is when do I ask it?
Should I give up now because I have had a bad week and lost a bit or wait till I have lost a lot?
TLB you are obviously an experienced trader and your opinion matters to people like me I hope you don’t take offence because none is meant but reading that after the week I have had was not great.
When do you ask these Question if trading is for you or not? For me, when I have had a losing streak and when I was at a low point at this. More than likely, you will have doubts when you are at a loss or you just wipe out your account or 2. When everything you do seems wrong and felt stupid. When you felt and it seems like you have not made any progress and never get ahead at this game and you still didn’t recoup what you had lost.
On the reversed side, you do not ask this questions when you are at a winning streak. When you are winning, you just keep it going and do a little bit more. On average, 1-2 years at this, you are at these stage where you still learning and finding what strategy works for you and at the same time blowing an account or two. By 2-3 years, you probably figure it out and hope that your account survived for that year or better yet, finally getting some (small) profit. 4-5 years, this is the level where you should start making money. Though, it varies for each individual especially to those who works full-time, have a family and kids to take care off or whatever the situation maybe…
There are some took a break for a year or 2 and do other things such as focusing on their career or save up for more capital and get back at this trading again. There are some who actually just quit and never heard from them. In my view, there is no expiration date to trade. As long as the market is open and it is available for us to participate, it will be here. The question is , do you have what it takes to make it happen and the commitment that you are willing to do to make it work? [B]You have to look at it in a long term perspective and not to be bothered with the initial failure or lost and have a set “realistic goals”.[/B]
You know yourself more than anyone else and you will know the answer to that sooner than later…
I think at this moment I know that I will make mistakes and will have down turns but learning to deal with it seems to be the lesson this week.
I think a lot of my failures is due to the way I learn which is mostly online, the only interaction with other traders is through forums like these. When I make a mistake it is usually compounded because I make the same mistake many times over before I see a pattern in my journal or have asked for help on this forum. I think if I atteneded a course with other traders and a good instructor a great many of this mistakes would never happen or would be seen and corrected at an early stage.
However finding a school of the right quality may be a bit difficult. Pipschool is a hard act to follow.
I will continue, my plan is long term and the losses incurred do not have a great deal of financial significance more aggrieved of the pips lost. The learning process as I am discovering is more difficult than actually learning how to trade.
On the upside 40 pips up today more importantly was to plan, should have had another 40 but incorrect placement of the stop loss because of my lot size restrictions and some poor maths from me, real basic error.
And apologies to TLB for hijacking his thread and whinging on it too…
Hi Daren, I think this is a “grass is greener at the other side” mentality. In a business where a lot fail and is mainly speculation, i have consciously made an effort to avoid group think because group think only limits your individual imagination and pattern recognition. So go ahead and make a mistake six or seven times until it finally clicks in you that there’s a way to profit from this mistake that you constantly make if you take the exact opposite side of the trades that you currently take. This is my story with trading so far.
I think people forget that this is just plain hard work. I mean really hard work. Or to put it another way. Man its hard work. And at the end of the day most are lazy and they get out exactly what they put in.
There are pros and cons to do a group trade discussion on how each individual take on a trade. I have had participate on this before. In the beginning, I have found it very educational and it is a great practice and experience. I wanted to know what others are thinking or to validate if they see what I see. However, there will be times it will conflict your decision and your trading plan whether or not to take on the trade or you should stay on the side. Or sometimes you become paralyze because you don’t know what to do. I’ll say try a group trading discussion and participate to one of those. Eventually, you will know if you like it or not. Did it help you to improved your trading or did it make it worse? This is the time where you have to experience all the mistakes that you will make so you know which one you should correct early on and write everything down in your journal.
If you do participate on a group trade set up discussion, just remember that you are on your own and think independently. Win or lose, it is your decision and you hold yourself accountable for it and not to blame other people if you lose…Although, I cannot speak to those paid for courses on how they operate on a group trade set up discussion…
I believe you make a really good point here. Can you see yourself doing this for the next "x"years. If the answer is no then the market is just not for you. IMO.
Hi, I am sure I don’t think the grass is greener its more what’s efficient, up until very recently I worked very hard and long hours and I have a family which made my time was very valuable so always looked for the best way to use it.
You could have read my mind with this quote!
I will carry on in with the current learning process as seems to be what most are advising many thanks for the responses.
Many are attracted to FX for the money. Dont get me wrong… there is almost unlimited income potential for the “right” person but if your sole intention is to get rich then trading may not be for you. On the flip side if you LOVE trading and want to one day make money doing what u love doing more than anything then there is hope. Learning to trade is damn hard work and the simple fact is that the overwhelming majority are not willing or able to make the commitment that is necessary to still be around when it finally clicks.
The thing is that trading is a very isolated venture. We do analysis alone, we trade alone, and we win and lose alone. This fact in and of itself eliminates one helluva lot of the population who are just not built to be able to function well without the help or companionship of anyone else. There is no one there to tell you what to do and when to do it. One must gain confidence in their ability to do the right thing when it matters and the only way for me to get to this point was from sheer exhaustive effort. If you love to trade and want to do it no matter what then you will have no choice but to continue the best way you can.
What PipNRoll said about the time frame to start seeing some success seems to me to be a close approximation in my experience. Im around 3 years into it and ive made the turn. It has finally clicked for me. What i mean by clicked is that i have found a method that suits my personality and has an obvious edge. I enjoy trading it and am able to start fine tuning my entries and exits and my account is finally going in the right direction. I still have alot of work ahead but thats ok… I love trading and look forward to seeing how good i can really be.
So just stick with it. Take notes and dont settle on a method if it doesnt suit your personality. If you dont enjoy trading a certain way then its even more difficult to do the work necessary to make it work.
