How will it affect this pair

This is the challenge: a single trader is trading against the world… He/she has no direct influence…

Like buying a can of Coke, or even one hundred cans of Coke, would not allow you to change the
course of the company’s profit/loss, so buying a lot or even one hundred lots of EUR/USD would not
allow you to change the course of the pair’s bullish or bearish path…

Best be content with the crumbs left behind by the big money - the ones that really does the moving…

Cheers…

Thats right, it is trader pitted against trader, so then comes a question of trust. The media reports what has happened and also forecasts on what they think will happen. Now when dailyfx said the yen will rally ( about two weeks ago, they said that on a fri afternoon) it had been rallying for two days, after the weekend the yen did nothing but decline. Now was that a complete lie or did they just get it wrong? On this forum it is pretty friendly and i think everybody trys to help to the best of their ability so i trust you guys but media is another story i think. Retail traders can never change the direction of a pair, only for a moment if most retail traders make the same position considering retail trade is 5%.

Although if you looked back to the start of the week, two weeks ago roughly, you will find this sort of article from DailyFX, saying not to jump on a USD/JPY long so late:

USD/JPY Forex Signal- Sept. 9, 2014

How do you find your work? Is it more interesting ore more humdrum than what you expected?
How long will yoi stay in the job…is it permanent?

It was dailyfx the website run by fxcm not daily forex which is a different company altogether i think. Im not sure if they purposefully would deceive people with their forecasts, I am a cynic so i would say yes they would, after all we need people to lose so we can win, but my point is in general be very careful when taking other peoples advice particularly the media.

I am a DailyFX regular and I could find no article from the time you mentioned that said something misleading, so I quoted the above instead, which is what DailyFX probably would have also recommended… On the 15th, David Rodriguez, for example, put up a DailyFX video talking about selling the JPY, which was entirely proper, given what the JPY was doing… Fundamentally, Abe’s tax increases are hurting the Japanese economy, so the Yen is indeed weak.

Sorry, I just cannot fault that concept… If you could find the actual DailyFX article or video, please post it, as I spent about fifteen minutes trying to scroll through several DailyFX article from around the time you mentioned, but there are very many to go through, and I could not find something close enough, so I posted something else - but, yes, it was not from DailyFX.

Anyway, DailyFX is not a one-slogan company: traders within it may diverge in opinion; for example, Michael (Boutros) likes to scalp, Ilya (Spivak) likes long-term trades, and Kristian is a currency cycles specialist… They may all have been seeing the Yen crosses rising, but not necessarily all been long on them…

It was a video made by david rodriguez, i will try to find it and let you know tomorrow, cheers mate.

You are welcome! Feel free to P.M. me.

Goodnight!

Im still awake lol,I was on youtube not sure if this is the video i was on about because he doesnt say the yen will rally which i thought he did say on the video i was thinking. This is on youtube its Thursday 28th aug 2:48mins long, watch from 2:00 on, videos called Forex: US dollar at make-or-break levels versus Euro, Yen. david rodriguez says USD/JPY is bullish but theyve heard a rumour theres going to be a sell-off which never happened the pair remained incredibly bullish. I just feel they cover their bases and kind of say yes this is going to happen but we might also see this happen, you know what i mean, anyway I still listen to what they say very briefly.

I would ask first, where did these numbers come from ? 2 million more Euros and 2/1 ratio ?

Now the market has change and banks employed quant. Sadly, Finished is the day when you could go to trading with a college degree. You can be fired about 3/4 months yes.

You should try to give it a go ( programming) at least to be able to test simple strategies.

I would not listen to the Media and certainly not to the retail fx broker firm. They are sales guys and low skills.

I have done that for 20 years, different banks, different continents. It s more a hobby, passion than a job for me. It is certainly less interesting than before with all the new regulations and the FX probe ( London fixing problem). It is getting tougher and tougher. Algos are replacing traders. When you quote a 0.3/0.6 spread all day long in euro for example… you don’t make much out of it. It s a given thing and once they have the foot in, they can start to sell you other ( more lucrative) products.

I have done that for 20 years, different banks, different continents. It s more a hobby, passion than a job for me. It is certainly less interesting than before with all the new regulations and the FX probe ( London fixing problem). It is getting tougher and tougher. Algos are replacing traders. When you quote a 0.3/0.6 spread all day long in euro for example… you don’t make much out of it. It s a given thing and once they have the foot in, they can start to sell you other ( more lucrative) products.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

CME , chicago mercantile exchange. cot report. now im thinking ive got my numbers wrong, Now i think 1.8 billion euros have been bought??? maybe you could have a look and clear it up as i am a noob and could have got it wrong, cheers.

At a first search I got some numbers from here: EUR Commitments of Traders | Myfxbook


I guess those are full lots. “Dealers, typically sell-side” (blue line) I would say are LP in forex, with +168429 volume.
The blue line is way much above zero, indicating a strong trend. It also started now to decline, which means we are probably in the middle of the entire move.
On red line are low risk positions, compared with equity size, and on green line are high leveraged positions executed/heged by algorithms.

Long positions Net Prior Gross
EUR 137.1k 157.5k Change 20.4k 79.6k long. so 79.6k means 79600 contracts. A contract equals one lot which is 100000 units. So 137100 x 100000 = 137,100,000,000 Euros purchased.
Short positions Net Prior
216.7k 216.9k Change 0.02k So 216,700,000,000 Euros sold short.
So more people selling than buying, the Euro will continue to drop. Please let me know if i have this wrong I probably have. A 79,600,000,000 difference in favour of shorting the Euro, Im still not sure if it will rise before the fall, Long-term fundamentally we all know the Euro will depreciate against the dollar but that is too objective most of us dont have accounts big enough to wait for the fundamentals to play out ha. Tho this doesnt add up to 2 trillion, now im confused. I guess it is because this is just futures positions.

The simple answer is no.

Why is that?

I asked not long ago the same question.