I don’t know bro, why did the chicken cross the road?
But at volatility levels like this why bother
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663255”]I don’t know bro, why did the chicken cross the road?
But at volatility levels like this why bother
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
True. Volatility is slow. But it is as close to a no risk trade as possible in this market. It’s sitting at 1.2058 right now, the lowest it can go is 1.2000. The Swiss central bank is committed to selling unlimited Francs to keep the pair from going below that, they have stated this many times.
Now pull up the 15 min eurchf, put a 14 period rsi on there, wait until the rsi falls below 30, and then long with a TP of 10 pips. Sure it may take a day or two to hit the target, but as long as you are buying it below 1.2100, your maximum risk is less then 100 pips, and even if it did continue going down, you’d simply average in again at 1.2010 before the Swiss central bank intervened to bring the pair back up.
Is ten pips worth it? To some its not… But it’s basically a gift trade by the market, we will probably see 5 to 10 or so such entries before it creeps back up above 1.2100. So that’s 50 to 100 pips to be made with EXTREMELY low risk.
So done a bit of research. Turns out on Nov 30 the Swiss goes to the polls to vote on an initiative that imposes significant constraints on the SNB’s conduct of monetary policy. What these initiatives are I don’t know maybe you or someone can explain in more detail. But according to Barclay Capital the passage of the referendum would alter its (the SNB) incentives to pursue balance-sheet related unconventional policy measures, hence would reduce the SNB’s commitment to the EURCHF floor of 1.2000
According to Barclay’s
As a result, it may increase the likelihood of the SNB following the European Central Bank (ECB) in introducing negative deposit rates
and
While gold markets have been most focused on the issue, the five-year phase-in would limit volatility, though passage of the initiative likely would raise the long-term equilibrium price for gold, in our view
Also, Goldman Sachs view that Euro area weakness is set to adversely affect the Swiss economy. Therefor the SNB is in no hurry to hike rates and that the ceiling eventually will not be a binding constraint to hike rates.
Consequently, we have pushed back our forecast for the first SNB rate hike to June 2016 (from December 2015 previously)
The SNB’s exchange rate ceiling against the Euro is often seen as a binding constraint on its future interest rate decisions. But the exchange rate commitment is only likely to become a constraint on rate decisions if the CHF remains close to the 1.20 level against the Euro
There are several reasons that would argue for a depreciation of the CHF against the Euro, opening up the possibility for the SNB to eventually start tightening policy. Most importantly, we expect the situation in the Euro area to gradually improve again over the course of the next year, thereby reducing the risk of a re-emergence of safe haven inflows into the CHF
Now what does that all mean to me. Well not a hell of a lot. I make things from milk so its all a bit of mystery to me. What I do understand is that this 1.2000 ceiling may not be as un-penetrable as you and therefor a majority of the players might think.
So maybe the smart money waits for the price to retrace to about the 1.21170 mark, whack on a sell with a 25 pip SL waiting for a min 125 pip return as the price turns, heads south and breaks though the 1.2000 level taking out all the stops you numb-nuts have in place just below it because of this safe ceiling mentality. The immediately reverse and go long as the price recovers. Morgan Stanley have a project price of 1.23 by end of year.
I also note that Danske Bank sell side research has a short term short trade on with a TP set at 1.2020
As for “scalping” out 10 pips here and there, as someone who does it as part of his trading plan, there are plenty of other opportunities out there where the cost to trade can be halved compared to the EURCHF so again why bother.
So to yourself and emeraldoc (whom I know will be reading). Watch out for us moron want to be traders. After a few years and several thousand hours we start to learn a thing or two. And in this zero sum game I don’t care who’s money it is that I get but at the moment yours and emeraldoc looks pretty cold and hard and nice.
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663322”]
So to yourself and emeraldoc (whom I know will be reading). Watch out for us moron want to be traders. After a few years and several thousand hours we start to learn a thing or two. And in this zero sum game I don’t care who’s money it is that I get but at the moment yours and emeraldoc looks pretty cold and hard and nice.[/QUOTE]
Why are you talking as if I’m a fan of emerald? His posts are a great display of arrogant ignorance.
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663322”]
So done a bit of research. Turns out on Nov 30 the Swiss goes to the polls to vote on an initiative that imposes significant constraints on the SNB’s conduct of monetary policy. What these initiatives are I don’t know maybe you or someone can explain in more detail. But according to Barclay Capital the passage of the referendum would alter its (the SNB) incentives to pursue balance-sheet related unconventional policy measures, hence would reduce the SNB’s commitment to the EURCHF floor of 1.2000
[/QUOTE]
Few in Switzerland want this. The strong franc hurts Switzerland too much for many to want to remove the tools that the SNB has at their disposal to to keep it at a reasonable level. The referendum will come and go without any change. If on the off chance the referendum passes then obviously it would be time to re-evaluate, probably even sell, but the chances for that are extremely slim.
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663322”]
Also, Goldman Sachs view that Euro area weakness is set to adversely affect the Swiss economy. Therefor the SNB is in no hurry to hike rates and that the ceiling eventually will not be a binding constraint to hike rates.
Now what does that all mean to me. Well not a hell of a lot. I make things from milk so its all a bit of mystery to me. What I do understand is that this 1.2000 ceiling may not be as un-penetrable as you and therefor a majority of the players might think.
So maybe the smart money waits for the price to retrace to about the 1.21170 mark, whack on a sell with a 25 pip SL waiting for a min 125 pip return as the price turns, heads south and breaks though the 1.2000 level taking out all the stops you numb-nuts have in place just below it because of this safe ceiling mentality. The immediately reverse and go long as the price recovers. Morgan Stanley have a project price of 1.23 by end of year.
[/QUOTE]
If price goes above 1.2100 then I’ll stop scalping it like this as the risk will be more then 100 pips, and I’ll have already made nice and easy pips on its way up. As you said Morgan Stanley is forecasting 1.23 (250 pips higher then it is now) by end of year (2 months from now). I guarantee you smart money will not be selling into the central banks intervention at 1.20.
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663322”]
As for “scalping” out 10 pips here and there, as someone who does it as part of his trading plan, there are plenty of other opportunities out there where the cost to trade can be halved compared to the EURCHF so again why bother.[/QUOTE]
Cost to trade? Are you talking about spread? Spread for eurchf is the same for me as the eurusd. A 10 pip profit on essentially a no risk trade is 10 pips I lose if I pass it up 
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663322”]
I also note that Danske Bank sell side research has a short term short trade on with a TP set at 1.2020
[/QUOTE]
That’s fine, a 20 pip drop from here is nothing. Also danske, like Morgan Stanley is forecasting the eurchf to appreciate into year end and the last I looked, they forecast it to be at 1.24 next year.
I’m long at 1.2058, I’ll post here when it hits the 10 pips TP
Which is why the markets work, because even though what you and I do has no bearing what so-ever on the markets our thinking is the same as the real players and they do the same thing. Personally, I think I’ll place a buy limit at about 1.2025 and manage the trade from there.
Look I too have lost a bit of respect for emeraldoc, his ego has got in the way. For a big tough solider boy slash property magnate he cry’s like a little girl. But I’ve read a snide remark to by you my friend.
Again many pips for you this week, hope your forecast on this pairs yields well for you.
Bob
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663333”]Which is why the markets work, because even though what you and I do has no bearing what so-ever on the markets our thinking is the same as the real players and they do the same thing. Personally, I think I’ll place a buy limit at about 1.2025 and manage the trade from there.
[/QUOTE]
Then we are on the same page
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;663333”] But I’ve read a snide remark to by you my friend.
[/QUOTE]
Lol probably accurate.
We certainly are bro, but I think I can learn more from you than you will from me lol
He reminds me of someone I knew before… But I will just bite my lip and zip it lol 
I hope this thread will continue on…
EUR/CHF presents the learner trader, who maybe is afraid to commit real money, a learning opportunity seldom found.
We are constantly told not to trade against the 'big boys (and girls), they don’t come much bigger than a central banker.
As in all good set ups there is risk, as pointed out by Bobbi, thks for that Bobbi.
An old, legendary trader often thought about such a scenario, where lies the greatest risk, the risk to the downside as pointed out by Bobbi, or the risk to the upside as noted by Global.
He not only thought about it, he decided to document the outcome, all by hand, long before computers.
He finally came to a conclusion, one that kept him in good stead, it was quite simple really.
He concluded, from many years of analysis, that a trader must always take the “path of least resistance”.
So, with all this technology at my fingertips (literally) I wonder what Mr Livermore would choose.
[QUOTE=“peterma;663352”]EUR/CHF presents the learner trader, who maybe is afraid to commit real money, a learning opportunity seldom found.
We are constantly told not to trade against the 'big boys (and girls), they don’t come much bigger than a central banker.
As in all good set ups there is risk, as pointed out by Bobbi, thks for that Bobbi.
An old, legendary trader often thought about such a scenario, where lies the greatest risk, the risk to the downside as pointed out by Bobbi, or the risk to the upside as noted by Global.
He not only thought about it, he decided to document the outcome, all by hand, long before computers.
He finally came to a conclusion, one that kept him in good stead, it was quite simple really.
He concluded, from many years of analysis, that a trader must always take the “path of least resistance”.
So, with all this technology at my fingertips (literally) I wonder what Mr Livermore would choose. :)[/QUOTE]
Exactly. You highlight everything that needs to be highlighted. Rarely is a such a line in the sand drawn where you know when a huge market player is going to enter and defend a price level. The closer you get to that line, the the less risk you have. The foreign exchange reserves of Switzerland compared to its GDP is HUGE at half a trillion dollars… This makes the costs of them failing to hold the floor at 1.2000 to be so big that failure is not an option at this point.
[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;662570”]
An update on my thoughts regarding the Aussie. After the CPI release today, I still believe that we are going to see the Aussie push higher against the dollar over the remainder of the week. Inflation in Australia is right where the RBA wants it, and therefore is not a concern for monetary policy as it is for many of the other developed countries right now. Chances are high that tomorrow’s US inflation report will be soft, and being below the Feds target already, it should garner more attention from the market and probably will result in dollar weakness. Dollar long positions are still stretched at this point and profit taking can see these unwind a bit more before the trend resumes.
Equity markets are starting to ease from last weeks turbulence and commodity prices are coming off their lows, both supportive factors for the Aussie. My sell order is sitting at 0.8930.[/QUOTE]
Aussie is indeed seeing the rally, still have my sell order at .8930, if its hit it would probably be in the aftermath of the FOMC tomorrow.
[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;663895”]
Aussie is indeed seeing the rally, still have my sell order at .8930, if its hit it would probably be in the aftermath of the FOMC tomorrow.[/QUOTE]
Also, nzdusd (at .7925 right now) may provide the better short after the FOMC tomorrow as the RBNZ will be announcing their rate statement which follows the big miss on their inflation release. Coming at a time when the market is watching the rbnz closely for cues on when they resume their next rate hike, I’d say its likely the market will be more then happy to sell the kiwi off if the statement mentions the lower CPI reading. Following that logic, audnzd (at 1.1177 right now) should see a nice jump up as well, an added benefit of longing audnzd is that it keeps you out of the usd ahead of tomorrow’s major risk event for the currency (the FOMC).
I’m going to be messing around with an interesting style (to me at least) of trading. Opened a new myfxbook to track it and will start trading it live next week.
[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;671970”]I’m going to be messing around with an interesting style (to me at least) of trading. Opened a new myfxbook to track it and will start trading it live next week.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Banker/4-quarters/1100451[/QUOTE]
Lol. 3 days in and I got some funny looking stats already. Losing trades lose more pips then winning trades win, less then 50% win rate, and a total negative pip performance… BUT positive 4.5% account gain.
The US is expected to lift money and travel restrictions to Cuba today, after a 54 year embargo. There will be a huge capital influx into the country, companies with operations in Cuba will probably be some of the best investment opportunities for the coming year. This is a big value buying opportunity for longer term investments.
See the website below for international companies doing business in Cuba.
4.5% gain is a good start I am sure you will do better next time. I will follow your thread and your myfxbook.
Thank you for doing this. It will help a newbie like me. Keep it up!
Lol, he already has done better, Global has … well almost tripled the gain… so he waited until post FOMC … USD/JPY I wonder …
Nice work Global, I’m hoping in time all will be revealed
[QUOTE=“peterma;672664”]Lol, he already has done better, Global has … well almost tripled the gain… so he waited until post FOMC … USD/JPY I wonder …
Nice work Global, I’m hoping in time all will be revealed :)[/QUOTE]
Haha nailed it! There happened to be an extremely profitable window of time after the statement but before Yellen’s conference where the US dollar sold off. Seeing as it was a rather neutral to ever more slightly hawkish statement, it was a rather easy decision to jump in with a heavy dollar long position on the overextended move.
Plus the bond market sold off suggesting the statement did indeed suggest higher interest rates, justifying dollar strength.
I shorted kiwi and Aussie rather then longing usdjpy though.
A rather muddied release with conflicting intentions, exasperated by the fact there were 3 dissenters.
Global,
Just out of curiosity, have you done any " back testing", or even " forward testing" with this strategy of yours because somewhere around here said you cannot make money manually. I just thought it was funny
[QUOTE=“Isabella24;672684”]Global,
Just out of curiosity, have you done any " back testing", or even " forward testing" with this strategy of yours because somewhere around here said you cannot make money manually. I just thought it was funny :)[/QUOTE]
Lol. I think I saw the thread you are referring to, had to laugh to myself a little when I saw that too. I’m not a fan of automated trading (or systems that can be automated) and believe trader discretion is the single most valuable input to any trading strategy.
Being that this strategy I’m using for this myfxbook is still a discretionary trading system, it is pretty difficult to back test. Each trade is made within a specific and unique point in time, unique due to the specific economic conditions and market sentiment being taken into account. Since these other variables are outside of price history, I wouldn’t be able to say whether or not i would take a trade, therefore precise back testing is impossible.
I’ve been trading for a long time now, but this particular “style” for a few months in a side account. So that could be described as a forward testing phase. Now this myfxbook account can be described as another forward test. Hopefully it can be used as proof that manual trading can indeed be profitable.