I’ve been a breakout trader since I started trading years ago, and one of the biggest things that has helped me improve over the years is reviewing my past trades to look for
- consistent trade execution
- patterns in my trading
Doing so allows me to know what I’m good at, what I’m terrible at, and ways to tweak things around. Am I always wrong? Is my stops working right? What about moving stops? etc etc etc.
I just finished analyzing my entire January’s worth of trades, and wanted to share my findings with Babypips. Obviously this helps me way more than it does for you, but hopefully you can see the usefulness of doing this for yourself.
January Trading Analysis
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The /\ Trades: Won 5/6 trades (83%)
Lost two trades due to entering a fakeout in the wrong direction of the bias (had I traded the // both would have been winners therfore these two trades are omitted), once where I did not wait for confirmation of a break and entered a in-progress formation.
Looks like for the /\ I need to watch for the confirmation unless volatility is extreme, and can afford to risk higher due to the higher rate of winning for this.
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Breakout Bounce Continuation Trades: Won 3/4 (75%)
The only lost trade was due to greed (holding too long), and not exiting just because it didn’t hit the TP (but was really really close to it).
This trade will also afford higher risk due to the higher rate of winning. Have to watch out for overholding.
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Standard Box Trades: Won 5/15 (33%)
Guestimating an average stop loss of 20 pips, there was two moves that gave 105/140 pips which counters all of the losses. Almost all the losses was due to fakeouts and insufficient stop losses.
For Feb Standard box trades will use ridiculously small risk (I’m thinking 0.25%), wait for confirmation only (unless you get a monster fueled market swing).
As it is I’d be lucky to break even with this box. Most likely avoid boxes that has a lot of wicks.
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General Breakouts with defined Lows/Highs Trades: Won 1/2 (50%)
These are consolidation zones that have one end that’s well defined. Its debatable about the loss (notes say it was not a tradable pattern to begin with). Overall this still net profit.
No changes for February.
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Triangle Flat Bottom Trades: Won 5/7 (71%)
1/7 times the formation went the wrong direction. Both losses were due to entering the trade during the formation instead of at the confirmation candle.
This trade does not require waiting for a confirmation candle, you can enter as soon as the price hits the right price.
Use higher risk for February.
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Triangle Flat Top Trades: Won 2/4 (50%)
My two losses were due to holding a winning trade too long, and selling a fakeout candle against the bias (otherwise it would have been a 4/4).
Use higher risk for February.
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Unnatural Triangles 2/2 (100%)
These are triangles that have an unusual shape, but still pinches at the end of consolidation. There was no wait, but entry right into the confirmation.
Trade as usual for February.
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Inside Channel Trades: Won 4/7 (57%)
Lost once due to a very weak fakeout (insufficient stop).
Lost once due to missing signs of a breakout.
Lost once due to not exiting at the other end (and formation of upward channel continued).
The trades won give greater return than the losses (average loss 20 pips, minimum win 37 pips)
Trade as usual for February. Looks like I’m doing an okay job of determining breakout from consolidation.
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Channel Breakouts: Won 1/7 (14%)
Every one of my losses was due to fakeouts.
Trade February with same risk as standard boxes, and wait for a confirmation candle, wider stops.
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News Trades: Won 2/3 (66%)
AUD Retail Sales had unexpected movement.
GBP CPI y/y and AUD CPI q/q had expected movement.
Loss was for 14 pips, wins were for 2.3 pips (botched entry for 40 pips), and 77 pips.
Trade February as is.
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S/R Trades: Won 7/13 (54%)
Won 1/4 psychological number bounces.
Won 6/8 long term S/R trades.
Avoid trading the special numbers for February. Use normal risk for the long term S/R.
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Number of Times Moving Stop Losses Broke Me: 6
Number of Times Moving Stop Losses Saved Me: 2
Number of pips “Saved” a.k.a my losses: Average loss is 20-30 pips, so I saved 40-60 pips.
Number of pips “Lost” a.k.a stopped out from my gains: 770
Yeah, I’m never touching my stops again. **** that noise. If I get the urge to protect myself, it means I’m most likely to win a ton of money 
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Number of Bad Trades with Bad Logic: 7
These are trades I took that makes absolutely no sense. The goal is to see this number as low as possible.
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Trades Exited Due to Being Emotional: 4
This happened 2 nights during January.
