Shorting USDCHF 10-25 4:30pm EDT

Beginner Questions
1

I’ve been following USDCHF. As of 4:30pm eastern time, looking at the 15 min time frame, it looks like the pair isconverging and preparing to breakout. The 50 EMA seems to be a resistance (ceiling), and with the current trend of USDCHF going down, I am expecting this pair to break out going down by tomorrow morning. If it does, I would expect it to rebound just above 1.1600 like it did earlier this week.

When I get home from work I’ll probably sell short USDCHF my 1% with a stop loss of 1.1675 and take profits at 1.1605. Depending on how things move within the hour, that is just a 40-50 pip gain.

EDIT: I noticed CHF PPI news is coming out early tomorrow morning. CHF news this last month has been up and down, so this could go either way, or not effect it at all.

DISCLAIMER: Just my opinions :slight_smile:

2

7:30am NY time this morning I am at +20 pips, 1.1632, adjusting my stop loss to 1.1652 to protect against losses.

USDCHF looks to still be using 50 EMA as a resistance level.

Edit1: 10am USDCHF once again tested the 50 EMA resistance level and bounced back down. At 11am it’s at 1.1622, but I agree with the technical analysis that it will have a heard time breaking through 1.1600. I am still holding onto the short for a few more pips!

Edit2: Trade closed … hit my stop loss and made 18 pips.

Looking back at my trade, I should have closed it at 1.1622, a 30 pip profit, because EURUSD was just below 1.4400. USDCHF and EURUSD are usually inversely correlated, so I should have seen EURUSD was having trouble breaking the 1.4400 resistance and taken profits.

Lessons learned …