When on the second of December reports that will cause volatility came out for AUD and EUR i expected the currency pair EUR/AUD to collapse, because there were red numbers for EUR and green for AUD. I ended up losing money because the currency went north.
Secondly, on the 1st of December German economic data came out and the ones with medium and high volatility were with green numbers(suggesting growth) and yet the German indexes like DAX fell down like a mountain ridge.
My question is WHY?
Its all an Illusion, This is why, you A= Dont trade news, Or B=, Use limit orders with short TPs that will run thru and close the trade within seconds.
Whats happening is the Banks are Looking for a better price at all times, and its more like a pump and dump Forex style. Everyone is trying to trick each other, to get a better price. Yo being a small retail trader, shouldnt even be in the trade, or thinking about making one.
Get the calendar out, and NEVER trade news, then you have nothing to worry about. Figure in 30 mins before, and 30 mins after News before even thinking of making a trade.
Thats the best advice you can get for this area of concern. Let them fight it out, and when things cool down, take action and continue to look for your signals.
Thats just my opinion.
Many commentators were blaming M Draghio’s poor communication skills, their analysis is that he led traders down the garden path by suggesting that there would be a substantial increase in EZ QE.
Reality is many traders just followed price down the path, M Draghi almost caused a rupture in the ECB when he made his now famous ‘whatever it takes’ speech, point is he is just one man.
Not going to go over it all again, most the info is over on fundamentalville, but it is very possible to position yourself for news, like money says, check the calendar, then when arriving at your own analysis take your position 30 mins before the news.
Btw, stocks like QE, if you are going to pump/print money into an economy then usually the first recipients is big business, less anticipated QE and stock market react negatively, but that is only knee jerk, check back on the dax on the announcement of QE by the ECB to see the effect.
Because news mean absolutely nothing. /Sorry fundamental traders ;)/
Let’s say “smart money” sees value in something at 80, and builds huge positions at that level, and expects to sell them at 90. Price goes up to 85 when heavy bearish news come out, everybody sells, market breaks to 82. Smart money goes like: “all these retards are selling, I’ll buy up all this supply at 82, because the market is still strong, so I can buy even more at value, and sell more at 90.” Then proceeds to buy everything, and drive up the market later to 90, where he distributes. At least the bears came out from the forest because of the news.
Same scenario when the market rallies on news. Actually this happened on EA. Market was driven up on news (mark 1), most likely contained huge selling, it becames obvious at mark 2, on the volume we see, they sold into that upmove heavily. If all that volume would have been buying, then market should have gone up. Its volume is almost as high, as the first volume, yet the candle is small. Smart money sold into all the NFP herd’s buying. I am actually pretty bearish on this pair now.
Long story short, don’t waste your time with fundamentals. 
Thank you!!!
Because fundamental news are not to only factor which moves the forex market.
We can see exactly why this move happened if we do our analysis properly.
Lets check the EURUSD chart.
So we appear to be in a happy down trend. Nothing new to see here. Well what does the EUR index tell us.
This is the 1hr chart and this paints a different picture. Trend line is placed on the same points as the EURUSD. But we see 6 days back the EUR started to show strength. This was not shown on the EURUSD chart!
We also see that the EUR shot off just as it pulled back to this trend line.
Now if we check the EUR index on 4 hour TF.
Pretty clear we were in a range and that a false breakout occurred to the downside touching the trend line.
Here we also see nice convergence on the 15 min chart indicating a move higher. A buy here would have been nice but I don’t trade the news.
I really don’t think fundamentals mean alot. Price movement is predetermined regardless.
PS - Index charts and convergence is great. Trust me.
News are a trap, don’t trade them. Instead follow the price action on higher time frames. The wining ration will improve a lot.
