What should I do?


I saw that on the daily charts the major trend was down. I sold at the red arrow and since then it has rocketed up. It’s slowly starting to come back down. What should I do, any suggestions?

Thank you

Hello Jason,

I see that you have had a drawdown of about 190 pips and your profit target is about 60 pips, and that you did not put in a stop-loss, which makes me ask this question: if you were so confident about this technical formation and about the ECB rate decision/press conference being bearish for the Euro, and also, if you were so confident that you would not need a stop-loss, then why not, for example, increase your profit target further? The channel bottom, from your screenshot, would appear to be below 120.00, probably, which would give you a much nicer reward to your risk.

My other point is: what was the time-scale for this trade? If you were playing the ‘risk aversion’ move, which is currently on play through all the Yen pairs, then you are in for a longer-term trade, as a theme like this will take time to unfold.

Finally, the close from yesterday was a long way from the daily high, with a long wick at the top of a bearish candle, signalling that the 124.00 level is good resistance (or supply, if you wish), and you may also notice that the 50-day moving average provided a barrier for the daily high, which almost touched the MVA around 125.00 but then retreated about 100 pips, leaving a long wick behind.

If I were in your shoes I would stay short and wait for price to move in my favour again, although it depends on what you are prepared to risk on this one trade, and how long you are prepared to wait.

:slight_smile:

  1. get out the trade
  2. get back to School of Pipsology | Learn Forex Trading
  3. make a trading plan
  4. start trading after that (so not sooner than 3 months from now)

good luck :23:

Agree with Dutch. Cut your losses and get out. Price could move in your favour but things could get worse.
Study at the school and dont enter trades without educating yourself.


If you were happy to wait, it may well

retrace to your entry…

You may then want to consider

if you were happy with a 1:1 R/R

ratio and move your profit target

to 150 pips from your entry, for

example…

That would be the easiest course of action, all considered:)

Its a nice trend he’s spotted, but instead of entering at the top or bottom of the channel he’s gone in at the middle. Also, if buying based on D1 charts I would personally expect to stay in the trade for at least 5 candles

You are right, Eddie, he/she has sold in the middle, which is less attractive…

Thanks for the replies guys. I can spot trends but I am terrible at deciding when to enter, even with indicators. As soon as I enter a trade it seems to do the opposite. This is on a daily chart. I was looking to hold on to this position for long term (maybe a few weeks).

I think you need to ask yourself the standard question one always asks, when thinking about exiting a trade: [I][U]is my reason for entering this trade still valid[/U][/I]?

It’s really hard to advise you without knowing what it was.

With apologies, this isn’t what you wanted to hear at all, but I wouldn’t have entered short just above something that looks so like a double-bottom, myself (this is said with hindsight, obviously, and is perhaps partly because I draw only horizontal lines on my charts, unlike your diagonal ones). :8:

Hai Jasen,

Could you please let me know what is your rules or trading strategy?
Sorry to say this, but your entry is like kinda in almost at the bottom (this is just my own view and experience).

I also want to go Short in this pair. but i did not enter the trade because the retracement price was not touching my favorable short area.
Below is my analysis before i go short for EURJPY


As the picture above i analyse that EURJPY will have one more down impulse. so i’m waiting to sell at the retracement.
I never sell directly or sell almost at the bottom of impulse without waiting for correct retracement levet at fib 61.8. so basicly it is better to enter trade in 61.8 retracement. But anyway every people have their own strategy and judgement. I do believe if you in this forum for long enough. soon you will get the idea.

Put a stop loss right away and stop worrying about it. What you should be worried about is your trading education. You should ask your self, why did you did what you did without having a exit strategy.

I entered because I thought it would continue down and I was following daily indicators that were all bearish. I know that sounds dumb. I guess I don’t really have a strategy even though I’ve been studying. Maybe I’m just not patient enough either. Is there a stategy that you use that I can research?

I’ve tried looking up support & resistance levels on site like investing.com but they’re all different. I guess I could try using Fibonacci levels. Thanks

I’ve been purely using indicators. I enter a trade when they all agree on at least three different timeframes. I use MACD, slow stochastic, and moving averages. I’m not good at using resistance or support levels and I always seems to get sucked into false moves. I like to trade in longer timeframes because it seems easier to get the big picture and manage in my opinion.

I would choose number 1 Dutchtrader1