I have just concluded my weekly scan and analysis ahead of this week’s trade opportunities. Among the 10 pairs on my watch list, two are clearly trade-able - AUDUSD and EURUSD - but I’m already in the market on them. Apart from that, I have EURJPY, GBPCAD and GBPNZD which I will be tracking for possible trade opportunities during the week.
It is very important to do a thorough pre-week scan and analysis (say each Sunday), leading to clarity on which pairs are tradable and may be traded, the directional bias on each of them, and the trading strategy and approach to adopt. However, it is equally important, in my humble opinion (imho), to do a mid-week update, particularly where fundamental shake ups have taken place or where directional clarity was not mixed or was uncertain at the point of the pre-week scan.
Thus on the evening of Tuesday of each week - latest at the close of the NY close - I check one or two pairs among the few I selected for the week for necessary update in directional bias, trading strategy or market structure/order flow change/clarity.
I have just completed my mid-week update, to accommodate any significant change that is impacting on my sentiment for the week on the three pairs I chose to trade this week. I was clearly in the wrong on my initial analysis of GBPCAD but I will still keep an eye on it. Here is the update on GBPNZD.
GBPNZD: The initial price action on Monday favoured a northward move, which offered an early profit on my long trade. Since then the GBPNZD has been largely ambivalent. Current GBP post-brexit situation couple with generally stronger USA fundamentals favour a bearish mode but constrained by the lack of positively correlated kiwi fundamentals, a reason why GBPNZD has not moved much southwards. In fact, technically, GBPNZD has barely moved below the daily trend line I drew on Sunday and there is potential for a break to the upside as the technicals on daily and 4H time frames are mixed/ambivalent. I will track price action for possible trade on the north; much like good GBP fundamentals during the week will provide the impetus. [B]I may be wrong.[/B]
Building a profitable trading edge over the market is central to consistent trading success. However, it will not come easy. For me a beginning step was when I came to really see my biggest trading weakness and then started learning how to turn it to an advantage as it seems fundamental to a trader’s long-term success.
I am now doing my pre-weekly scanning of the pairs on my watch list. After the first step, which involves scanning all the 10 pairs for trend, I have picked five for further analysis. This analysis will involve at least five subsequent steps leading to developing a brief trading plan for each pair selected for possible trading opportunities in the week ahead.
My pre-week analysis indicates a stepping aside on EURUSD until later in the week. The order flow context is rather choppy/unidirectional for the swing trading style/strategy I employ.
Following my weekly scanning and analysis of the pairs on my watch list today, I will be looking forward to trading opportunities during the week on three pairs: EURJPY, GBPJPY and GBPUSD. There is a question mark on a fourth pair, USDCAD, which I need to watch further during the week.
I had entered a buy stop order on GBPUSD about 19 hours ago. Price has remained rather ambivalent since then which, for me, is not healthy for swing trading. So, buy stop order cancelled. Trade safe.
My decision to cancel the buy stop order turned out to be a great decision as the GBPUSD plummeted to the downside following an interest rate cut to a record low.
I will not be trading EURUSD this week because its current market structure does not meet a condition I need for short-term swing trading. I expect a sideways market situation on the pair. From the standpoint of technical analysis on the weekly time frame, the southward move is still in play but the momentum is weakening.
[B]Nuggets:[/B]
Having enough money in your trading account to trade tomorrow and when the best opportunities present themselves is more important than just chasing profits and being reckless in your trading.
I love this quotation:
‘Don’t worry about what the markets are going to do, worry about what you are going to do in response to the markets.’ - Michael Carr
[B]Just my 10 cents:[/B]
Many of us need to be weaned from the delusive idea that a trader must always win and should never suffer losses. The business is about winning some and losing some; the nub is consistent efficiency and sustainable profitability in the trader’s trading business/career. Trade safe.
I took advantage of the weakness of the USD and the bearish mood of the GBP to trade GBPJPY and GBPCAD southwards to good effect today. Trade safe.
After concluding my weekly scanning and analysis of the 12 pairs on my watch list, I will be looking to trading three pairs this week: GBPCAD (the first priority trade), GBPJPY (the second priority trade) and GBPUSD (a potential trade; will wait until after my mid-week update). Green pips to all.
I chose to step aside for now regarding GBPUSD. Here is why. Although on all the htfs, the technicals I use for my weekly scan and analysis of pairs to trade agree that the primary mode of the pair is towards the downside, the intraday technicals are at variance - indicating a northward mood for perhaps a strong pull back to the upside. Therefore, as a swing trader I have to wait for agreement of the intraday with the higher time frames. Trade safe.
I am now tracking the GBPJPY as it is testing the daily pivot. Any bounce off the daily pivot or a (bearish) rejection candle around it will be a cue for me to trade the pair southwards. [B]I may be wrong.[/B]
Absolutely! You hit the nail on the head there. A method/strategy that you repeat over and over and over…
Thanks, mate.