How to know when the big drop and up will happen?

In this pic to the right side how we know the big up or down trend happen?
,I dont know why the pic was upside down once uploaded here. Sorry for that guys. :5:


Your picture has come out upside down (that must say something about trading! :5: ).

It doesn’t matter, though: your question is clear.

Unfortunately the answer is less clear: there isn’t ever a way of knowing that with certainty - there are only different ways of knowing it [I]as a probability function[/I]. All of trading is about probability functions.

And it isn’t even necessarily a matter of identifying and using methods which have a greater-than-50% probability of getting the direction right. Win-rates are only part of the story. What matters in the long run is positive [B][U]expectancy[/U][/B] (i.e. winning more collectively on your winning trades, whatever their proportion, than you lose collectively on your losing trades) and using appropriate risk-management parameters, including position-sizes.

The mistake is to try to predict with certainty: you won’t manage it (and neither will anyone else) and it’s misguided effort.

Hi lexys,
The pic was fine in my gallery I dont know why the picture is upside down when its uploaded here, thanks lexys for the info. I seen you are so active here.ahh.thats good so for sure you can help me :5: my whole day is studying and mastering forex before i open live. How about the news currency report how can i apply it in the market? I applied the currency strength dollar in news but its opoosite run in the market.

-i like you high heel profile pic before :5:

You need someone who knows all about fundamentals, to answer this - and that’s definitely not me. :8:

But someone else will doubtless reply soon enough, anyway.

Thanks. They have gold-coloured metal studs at the back, but they never come out clearly when a photo’s reduced to 80x80-pixels, and they just look like spots … :8: :stuck_out_tongue:

Okay lexys, how long you do live trade? can you share your strategy on how to trade more wins and few losses?

ohh feel like I want to have that high heels ahh. :8:

A long time, now: I always feel aware of my age, when people ask this! I’ve been trading since I was 18, having done a lot of learning and trading on demo before that (I’m 26 now), but I’m only in my 5th year of making a proper living from it. And as you can work out from that, I had several “practice” years and then another 3 years of live trading [I]without[/I] making a living from it. It wasn’t quick.

“More wins and fewer losses” isn’t [U]necessarily[/U] the way to go.

Ask yourself which makes more money: a method with a 60% win-rate with the average win producing 20 pips and the average loss costing 20 pips, or a method with a 30% win-rate with the average win producing 60 pips and the average loss costing 15 pips.

They’re both profitable.

Over 100 trades, the first method produces +400 pips of profit.

The second method, which has half the win-rate of the first one, produces +750 pips of profit, nearly twice as much.

So you see what I mean by “expectancy”?

Having said that, it’s also true that high win-rate methods are easier to handle (especially when you lack experience) because they have shorter losing runs and losing patches, and it’s easier to work out safe position-sizing for them.

Sharing my strategy isn’t so easy, because I’m a price action trader. It’s much easier for the “indicator traders” to explain what they’re doing, because their parameters are (mostly) definable and quantifiable in a fairly small number of words. Unfortunately that isn’t equally true at all for people who trade only price action. I can always suggests books to read on price action trading, though, for those interested.

Personally, I trade entirely from technical analysis but without using indicators at all. My trades are based on support/resistance and chart-patterns, including things like “Ross hooks”, “1-2-3-formations”, “inside bar breakouts”, “box breakouts” and so on.

I venture to suggest that the extent to which they’ll suit you depends on a few things, but perhaps primarily your gender. Your height might also be relevant (I’m not very tall, myself) … :slight_smile:

Wow its been a long time ago.huh. I’m 22 and just now studying forex. My husband the one offered this to me so I’m trying my best to learn, I want this too as my job cause at home while earning $,this is sounds very good,no boss and time its depends on us. You are really doing good work.I feel amazed.

My husband is about to buy me a books for me toi get more knowedge about trading. Right now I use the Japanese Candkle Stick Pattern and Trading Divergences. I want to learn more more…

I don’t know how to trade base on support/resistance,whats Ross hook? didnt read it on babypips school, 1-2-3 formatins? , inside bar breakouts and box breakouts seems i read it on babaypips.

  • I’m tall in my place but here I am short. My husband is tall Im only about on his chest so its perfect for me to wear high heels but its nice to wear on occassion last time i wore in grocery shopping my feet hurt. :32:

Wrong reason to try to learn forex, honey. You can earn from home in many different ways, some of which are even easier than trading. Trade only if it’s your passion.

Hi mami, :slight_smile:
Like what easier than trading? i love and like it. Im enjoying trading.

RD fundamental trading is not the opposite of TA, it just fits into how price reacts.

The most recent example maybe is FOMC statement on July 27.

Most people expected that the Fed would play it cool, who really wants to rock the boat further given all the rocking (uncertainty) with Brexit.

So most people positioned their orders with that expectation, so on Eur/Usd you can see that play out since the statement.

So too TA played out, check hr1, see the ‘hammer’ the wick of which hit the current weekly low - there was where the largest buy orders lay - they were not pulled because the ‘news’ was as per expected, had it not been so then those orders would have vanished with the speed of light (the time it would take an algo to communicate via fibre optics).

This is [I]exactly[/I] my reason for choosing to do this. I always knew I didn’t want to have to “go out to work” and “work for somone else.” :cool:

It’s (kind of) a particular type of minor correction/retracement in a trend, identifiable from a particular bar-pattern, before the continuation of the trend.

Those are changes in trend-direction - again, specific bar-patterns. There’s quite a bit of information about them online (but beware: some of it’s very misleading and difficult, especially one widely-circulated PDF by someone called Victor Sperandeo, also known as “Trader Vic”, who basically misdescribed the whole thing!).

Both 1-2-3 formations and Ross Hooks are explained well, in introductory form, in this free 25-page PDF by Joe Ross himself.

Inside bar breakouts in the direction of an existing trend are also specific examples of Ross hooks.

So is a thing called the “2E Trading System” (link to little PDF here) which I think is also discussed in the Nekritin & Peters book called [I]Naked Forex[/I], about trading forex without indicators. (I think they don’t actually credit Joe Ross with his original textbook on the subject, published a long time before theirs, but it’s an excellent book.)

These things all rest, broadly speaking, on very similar underlying principles.

I got used to them quite young, before my feet were fully grown, so I think that helped. I can wear them all day, now (but I don’t really go out a lot, anyway, compared with most people :8: ).