Hi Jazzman,
Thanks for the input. I am also sure that this will not work on shorter TFs than daily because the whole concept is based on the principle of riding the major, long duration, persistent trends that occur from time to time, and these are only really apparent on the long term TF.
Shorter TFs will inevitably chop these long term trends into smaller pieces and result in plenty of whipsaws whilst simultaneously, by definition, preventing the long profitable price runs.
This was the obstacle for me. I am not willing (nor wanting) to continually have 4/5 open positions overnight, let alone over weekends and holidays. Especially with something as volatile as Crude Oil and with which I am still unfamiliar!
But I am trying it another way. I still use the Daily charts and high/lows from that, as per Turbo’s instructions, but I am only entering trades from an hourly chart and only when the signal is in the same direction as the daily signal and for as long as the daily signal is still valid and not theoretically “stopped out”.
I wanted to hear how others have got on with other securities because the recent oil trend has been rather easy and not very representative.
Perhaps it is clearer to show the chart itself (stripped to a minimal).
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the left hand section is the daily USOil and the latest trend started on 2.3. when price broke down through the previous low from 28.2. That down trend is still valid and the current stop is at 49.45 from 21.3.
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the right hand section is the 1Hour chart from the start of the trend on 2.3. until today. I have ringed all the occasions when, in theory, this chart resumed the down move and gave a sell signal. I certainly didn’t trade anywhere near all of these opportunities but all the ones I did take had a positive follow-through.
The chart is not very clear as I had to squeeze so many hours into it, but I hope it gives some idea of the principle in what I am trying to do here. I also believe that when the market inevitably does reverse then I wil not be in a position because the 1H chart will have got me out long before the daily “stop” level is hit - unless the daily stop has come right down to the current price action.
But this is still untried in a ranging market…