Forex is eventually a scam, a losing gamble, not trade.
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
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    12

    Default Forex is eventually a scam, a losing gamble, not trade.

    Hi All,

    I am not quite a newbie, in short I started GBP/USD forex last Oct, made £7k by mid January and so was "really unlucky". Lost that 7K plus 12k by end of Jan. restarted with tiny deals then lost 2k on Brexit, another 2k on Pound flash crash, finally moved to EUR/USD and lost another 2.5k last week after a patient waiting of 3 months of open mixed hedged deals.

    My conclusion is this: depending on span of time you eventually lose. If 5% people win first year that drops to zero eventually.

    I don't think there is any winning strategy because if there was there would have been a winning robot but such robot would not be sold obviously. Since there are many robots on the market it means there is no strategy.

    We tend to grab profit early but leave losses too late or never close them.If you hedge them you enter a mess of false wins.

    Any thoughts welcome. I am actively resisting the addictive nature of this scam so called trade (gambling in fact).

    Regards

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    682
    Quote Originally Posted by kadhiem View Post
    Hi All,

    I am not quite a newbie, in short I started GBP/USD forex last Oct, made £7k by mid January and so was "really unlucky". Lost that 7K plus 12k by end of Jan. restarted with tiny deals then lost 2k on Brexit, another 2k on Pound flash crash, finally moved to EUR/USD and lost another 2.5k last week after a patient waiting of 3 months of open mixed hedged deals.

    My conclusion is this: depending on span of time you eventually lose. If 5% people win first year that drops to zero eventually.

    I don't think there is any winning strategy because if there was there would have been a winning robot but such robot would not be sold obviously. Since there are many robots on the market it means there is no strategy.

    We tend to grab profit early but leave losses too late or never close them.If you hedge them you enter a mess of false wins.

    Any thoughts welcome. I am actively resisting the addictive nature of this scam so called trade (gambling in fact).

    Regards
    Might sound rough but the only conclusion I can draw from your posts is that you have been trading ridiculously large positions whilst you still have hardly the first clue what you are actually doing.

    You wrote last November:

    "I understand that exchange rates follow supply/demand but how and who physically decides the chart at any moment."
    Whilst that is a perfectly valid question from a Newbie on a site dedicated to helping beginners, it also shows that you are right at the beginning of your forex learning curve - but then in your post above you are telling how you are making and losing thousands only a few months later - when other Newbies would still be trading small lots on a demo account and studying........and then you blame the markets for your losses and predict that no one makes any money after their first year?????????

    I think the most appropriate word in your post is "addictive". But you are not addicted to the foreign exchange business such that you want to study it and be a professional class participant in it, no, you are addicted to the idea of making a million very quickly and driving around in your expensive car without even knowing what you are doing.

    There are many posters on this site who have been trading many, many years and are giving sound guidance to people like you (you have already "met" some of them on your other threads). Ask yourself, would they still be here if they were not earning from their trade? But also ask yourself would they be here if they were multi-millionaires from their trading?

    Although I have no evidence for it, I do suspect you are right about robots. Markets are not homogenous or regular in their movements and characteristics and for that reason I do not see how a robot can be programmed to perform at all times in all market conditions and to self-adapt to the gradual structural changes in the way markets move. But I have no experience in these things.

    I think you have to decide are you only trading for the lure of the big money or are you genuinely interested in foreign exchange and wanting to learn about it in a professional manner? If it is the former then find something else to do. If it is the latter then prepare yourself for a long and gradual learning curve which will incrementally reward you both in job satisfaction and financially, and maybe one day reach a stage where your earnings are actually a source of pride and satisfaction to you, especially being the result of your own dedication and efforts.
    Last edited by Manxx; 02-13-2017 at 02:52 AM.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    349
    Kadhiem,
    If I got into my car and drove around with my eyes closed, eventually I would have a serious accident.
    This doesn't mean its a dangerous car, or that all car drivers will eventually have serious accidents, it means I dont know how to drive safely.
    A bit like your trading style

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Posts
    9
    Sadly numerous forex traders treat their forex trading exercises precisely like a gambler would. Numerous forex traders get to be distinctly dependent on the sentiment hope, basically they get to be distinctly dependent on the sentiment getting rich. This psychology makes them behave like a casino gambler and it causes scam in the forex market. If anyone has the proper education of forex trading, he or she definitely believe that it is not a losing gamble, it is a trade. I personally disagree with those who think that forex trading is a gambling. Having long experience and proper education, I am able to make profit from forex market. Don’t trust your friend who is supposed to gamble in forex market. Try to learn and believe that forex is not a gamble it is a business.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
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    2,534
    Quote Originally Posted by kadhiem View Post
    Lost that 7K plus 12k by end of Jan. restarted with tiny deals then lost 2k on Brexit, another 2k on Pound flash crash, finally moved to EUR/USD and lost another 2.5k last week after a patient waiting of 3 months of open mixed hedged deals.

    First, I'm sorry about your losses.


    Quote Originally Posted by kadhiem View Post
    Any thoughts welcome.

    Well, I hope that mine won't offend, but I agree with the posts of Manxx and Carlos, above.


    Quote Originally Posted by kadhiem View Post
    My conclusion is this: depending on span of time you eventually lose.

    My conclusion is different from yours.

    Mine is that you eventually lose, if you don't master position-sizing and probability basics (and incidentally learn that "hedging" isn't relevant to retail forex traders).


    Quote Originally Posted by kadhiem View Post
    If 5% people win first year that drops to zero eventually.

    This assertion is just factually mistaken, pure and simple. Sorry.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    609
    Just spent money that afford to lose, I am always using this quotation to investing in forex account trading, because in my experience also still hard to making consistent profit sometime I can increasing profit more than one hundred percent a month, but also often next month decreased and loss again

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    Zurich
    Posts
    15
    Can high LEV be the problem maybe?

    Im to new to trade to give you any advice but i have already understood something :

    - Market owes you nothing.

    Im sorry for your story, hope you will give it another try with clear mind.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Scotland
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    5,237
    SOrry for your losses...

    THis quote from legendary trader Livermore shows that in certain markets with huge personal capital you CAN

    move price.. however if this does not apply to you then you are at the mercy of bigger players (banks) who

    can and do make price move around in the currency markets through the sheer amount of capital as well as

    all the sophisticated systems and checks they have to be 'on the right side'.

    But I know little of this - Manxx has worked in that environment and would be better qualified to comment.

    Here is the LIvermore quote:

    Name:  Screenshot 2017-02-13 at 14.59.21.jpg
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Size:  39.3 KB

    Given that we are the smallest fish in the pond - a 100000 position won't even tickle the price of, say, EUR/USD -

    we are indeed at the mercy of markets, seeing our profits build and just as quickly taken away just when we feel

    (based on performance) that we are having a positive build-up of good trades...

    Problem is: you are alone in this... Just like running a one-person freelance business, you have to make all the

    decisions... But when you open a shop there are lots of organisations that can help you with business advice for

    that kind of trading... When you open a Forex account, there is hardly anyone that you can call on for advice...

    So you come to Babypips and there is a symphony/cacophony of voices, tips, and advice, which can be utterly

    confusing: who do you listen to, and to whom do you turn for good advice?

    My experience is similar to yours, only I lost a fraction of your money - also in the Pound flash crash last October -

    and after almost five years I am back to demo... but it can get pretty low and you may never recover.

    My advice to you and to myself is that in this business in order to succeed you need to know the market, what

    the opportunities are, how to set up a business (i.e. what you starting capital should be), what your goals are,

    and get trained up.

    To give you an idea - take it or leave it - I now run my own teaching business for music pupils and I am paying

    a mortgage, taxes, studio hire, and all manners of expenses and am just about breaking even, but I took the

    plunge from working as a full-time music teacher employed by a large organisation and it has paid off. How could

    I have done this without the years at university, practising my music skills that I now teach and get paid for?

    The amount of investment I put into my music business in terms of previous training far exceeds the famous

    10000 hours and the money that went into it is in the thousands or tens of thousands... Compare this to how

    little training I had in Forex before I tried trading it live and you can see exactly where the problem lies.

    Manxx says that time is not an issue if you are interested in something and passionate about it: I disagree,

    because time IS money, especially as time is a commodity that is finite and the older you get the more valuable

    it becomes. Well, I don't think anyone could argue that time is valuable... the question is: how do we want to

    spend our time? If spending it on a pursuit such as learning to trade is definitely worthwhile, then so be it, but

    it has to pay off at some point, perhaps not immediately but maybe further down the line...

    You cannot just treat it like a hobby and be content with that if you are intending to make money out of it,

    because making money from a business is different from making money as a hobby.,,, Okay, i mean that

    you can go to the casino to take your chance at the roulette to make some quick money, but that is not

    what you had in mind, is it!?

    So if you want to make trading work for you it will take more than funding an account and taking the Babypips school: it

    will need proper training, proper tools, lots of practise/study BEFORE risking real capital (and then there should be

    enough of it to pay off for your time).

    So it is tough, and it can feel like a losing game, but it does not have to be...

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
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    Southern Sweden
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    I could write something, but Manxx has already said what I would have said.

    Forex is not a scam, nor is it a casino. It's a business, a tough business.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
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    682
    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    Problem is: you are alone in this... Just like running a one-person freelance business, you have to make all the
    decisions... But when you open a shop there are lots of organisations that can help you with business advice for that kind of trading... When you open a Forex account, there is hardly anyone that you can call on for advice...
    As a retail trader, this is absolutely right. No matter how much you talk with others, and with how many, when it comes to the entry and exit, you are alone. Of course, if you "trade" someone's mechanical or automated system then there are no such decisions to make, but then that is not really trading on a personal level.

    Regarding advice, there is plenty of good advice in the quality reference books regularly posted in various threads but this is mainly useful in understanding the backbone of risk control and managing funds and various trading techniques. But one is still alone when putting it all together and formulating a comprehensive trading strategy ...and then implementing it in the market place!

    Apart from that, the industry is stuffed with junk material and "advice" from sources that are only after your business and are only concerned with their own best interests at the expense of your's. How can one evaluate and differentiate the wheat from the chaff? In the end one is left to trial and error and the "school of hard knocks".
    I guess one of the biggest problems is the sheer unpredictability of what is going to happen next. Nothing about price movement is constantly and consistently smooth and regular or rhythmic or cyclical. It is intensely difficult to incorporate an allowance for the totally unexpected within one's trading parameters - and, of course, it is precisely the unexpected that does the damage, both financially and psychlogically.

    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    My advice to you and to myself is that in this business in order to succeed you need to know the market, what the opportunities are, how to set up a business (i.e. what you starting capital should be), what your goals are, and get trained up. The amount of investment I put into my music business in terms of previous training far exceeds the famous 10000 hours and the money that went into it is in the thousands or tens of thousands... Compare this to how little training I had in Forex before I tried trading it live and you can see exactly where the problem lies.
    Yes,I agree with you entirely. That is why I have often written about the dangers of trying to trade forex for a living. The pressures are huge and the need to perform consistently will draw you into making rash and risky trades - and when they inevitably fail they only increase the pressure to perform even more to recover from them. It is almost impossible without serious study and experience and a healthy capital balance - and even then it is not a very desirable way to make a living for many reasons.

    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    Manxx says that time is not an issue if you are interested in something and passionate about it: I disagree, because time IS money, especially as time is a commodity that is finite and the older you get the more valuable it becomes. Well, I don't think anyone could argue that time is valuable... the question is: how do we want to spend our time? If spending it on a pursuit such as learning to trade is definitely worthwhile, then so be it, but it has to pay off at some point, perhaps not immediately but maybe further down the line...
    I don't think we disagree over this much at all, actually! Of course you cannot treat trading as a hobby if you intend to make significant money. But there is a world of difference between trying to be a professional trader and trading alongside one's main income with a view to building capital and even the occasional "treat" out it!

    All I have said is that if one wants to spend one's spare time on learning and practicing trading then this time does not have to be quantified in money terms because it is not a business, it is a hobby. Kids' parents here spend a fortune on kitting out the kids to play ice hockey and devote hours running them around from place to place, match to match, the value of that time is the way it is spent with their family. It is all about priorities and ambitions in one's life. And what is right for one person is not necessarily right for everyone else - and vice versa. It is surely a totally personal decision how we spend our time (and money)?

    Having said that, I am not advocating that trading as a hobby is should be approach in a sloppy and haphazard manner! The ultimate objective of trading is a net profit and that requires work. But that work is in the same manner as an amateur artist, author, car renovator, musician, and so on. If it is what we want to do and we have the resources to do it, then the time we devote to it is not valued in terms of money at all, it is a question of satisfaction and personal achievement.

    I do know what you are getting at, though. I too have been (and still am) self-employed. In my earlier business, you never said "no" to a customer even if it meant working through the night to get it done. It was not just about money, but about customer satisfaction, reputation and repeat business. It that environment, time was certainly money. If one is to devote time and capital resources to trading part-time then it certainly has to be considered from an "opportunity cost" perspective - resources can only be used once.
    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    So if you want to make trading work for you it will take more than funding an account and taking the Babypips school: it will need proper training, proper tools, lots of practise/study BEFORE risking real capital (and then there should be enough of it to pay off for your time). So it is tough, and it can feel like a losing game, but it does not have to be...
    Yep, I guess that just about wraps it up!

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