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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2007, 06:50 AM
 

Join Date: Feb 2007
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Hi!

I've been a on line poker player for a few years.
Since I live in Europe but get my money from the US mostly I thought I should at least get the basics of forex trading.
This site looks like the perfect start but I got some questions. I know that there are no exact answers, but if you could try to estimate or share from your own experience, I'd be happy.

How much would a decent trader make that dedicates about 2 hours a day trading and analyzing, starting out with a bankroll of $1 000?

How much would a decent trader make that dedicates about 2 hours a day trading and analyzing, starting out with a bankroll of $10 000?

How much would a decent trader make that dedicates about 30 min a day trading and analyzing, starting out with a bankroll of $1 000?

How much would a decent trader make that dedicates about 30 min a day trading and analyzing, starting out with a bankroll of $10 000?

How many forex day traders are there worldwide?

How many % of the trades are good, with medium risk/reward approach?
(The high variance in poker is a big reason for me to trying this) If this question is bad formulated, due to my English or due to lack of understanding the trading maybe someone could give me a good example of how many days of the months they make money forex trading?

Is it better or equally effective to dedicate 1 hour a day every day to this or is it equally effective doing it 2 days a week x 3.5h?

Are some days, months or hours generally better than others?

/Thanx
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2007, 01:54 PM
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I'm afraid there is no way to accurately answer your questions. The market is fluid, it can change anytime, sooo may variables that can determine your success or failure and the biggest variable is what you called a "decent trader". How do you measure your "decent trader's" knowledge, skills, instinc, grasp, aptitude, flexibility, etc?

In my opinion, sucess in this market is an individual thing.
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Old 02-19-2007, 03:37 PM
 

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I understand that there are no accurate answers to my question. I just started the school here at babypips.

But IMO, and what I guess, please correct me if I'm wrong. The graduates from babypips have more or less the same schooling. So they think a lot a like and talk to each other about trading,theory and opportunities/tips.
There are some that will do poor, others good, very good and a few exceptionally well.
So I guess a better way to formulate the question might be. How much does the top 10% of the day traders working with a $10k averege per hour?
$20, $40, $60, $80, $100, $ 150 or more?

I see so many parallels to poker, where your decisions are taken based on unconfirmed facts and the risc/reward ratio is important to your results.
And you can't say exactly how much a good poker player should make per hour. But if I know how which limits he play I can say how much would be considered, mediocre, good, very good and crazy good.
Most winning players makes their decisions based on their education, they've read the same books and frequent the same forum and they play similar opponents. And their results are similar if they have a similar bankroll.
Intelligence and luck plays a smaller role than most people think. And just following the right advices takes you a long way.

Don't you have expectations like making 4k a month?
And don't you assume that a day trader making $20/h with a 10k bankroll is bad at what he's doing?
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Old 02-19-2007, 08:58 PM
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I can't compare Forex trading to Gambling actually, Gambling might win some but will probably end losing capital. So Forex decisions should be taken upon appropriate strategy that have net profitable positions.

Expectations are nearly impossible. Making some cash off forex trading does not only depend on the trader, but on the mood of markets, holiday sessions, yesterday as a near example.

You enter the trade when the opportunity arises, and that opportunity arises after a successful formula from your system. How much you earn, is a hard question.

Average, High-risk investors can make more profits. But Low-risk investors with a much better strategy can compete with High-risk investors some times.

Risk management is up to you. But the quality of system used to determine entries and exits should be a main factor to decide your profit expectations.
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Old 02-20-2007, 06:00 AM
 

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I think you can compare gambling and trading and I'm not the first to suggest it. Gambling without having an equity edge is IMO dumb. And it will cause you to lose money in the long run.
Over 3 years I've had 2 months where I actually lost money playing poker, still I lose around 2-3 days a week. And I expect to average around $50/h when I sit down to play.

But let me rephrase once again.
How much do you all expect to make this year and based on; hours put in/system/experience/bankroll etc..?
If you have no vision of how much you should make trading you are no very different from a poker player that plays without an idea of how much they should win, and those who play poker that way are not the best players.

And also if you don't compare your results with others how do you know if you are good or need to get better?

Now I'm going to finish the school and see what my next step will be.
Maybe I'll find out that these questions have no answers not even estimations.
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Old 02-20-2007, 06:33 AM
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Hi gambler,
You are not really serious are you? well if you are, your best bet would be news trading. But good luck finding a broker for news trading which is simillar to gambling. I dont think forex is for you. Because a realistic figure for a forex trader is 30 to 50% profit per year. I ended up with over 400% last year, but that after full 1 year of demo trading, testing more than 2000 indicators, over 250 strategies on different market conditions , 5-10hours of every single trading day. And finally when I felt comfortable, I started a live account and since then I still learn something new everyday. I trade 20 hrs a day covering all three market sessions every single trading day and usually I fall a sleep on my keyboard. May be inabout another 6 months I'm going to employ couple of people , train them and have my own 24hr trading room.

I hope you can see through what I'm trying to say. Forex is definitly not a guessing game like gambling. You cant toss a coin and buy or sell a currency pair. There are 100 million things such as technical and fundamental analysis,volumes,momentems,money managemnt,hi's & low's,daily trend,hourly trend,monthly trend,pivots,trend strenght etc etc etc have to be considered before you click that buy or sell button. So if you think forex is gambling obviously you are not educated about the subject much.

Good luck

Last edited by senaka7; 02-20-2007 at 06:40 AM.
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Old 02-20-2007, 12:36 PM
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Well, I think Money management is key, plus I also think the exit is much more important than the entry, so even with all the indicators, it really doesn't matter when to get in (unless of course its against big news for a specific currency). Some people trade intuitively and make a killing, others have ways besides technical and fundamental and are quite successfull. I have a friend who is into poker, and there are some similarities. Patience, Money management, cutting losses, and knowing when to hold em' are needed in both. I think it is good and essential to have goals but based on trading conditions and techniques, you can't assign a per hour amount. For instance, I trade medium term, so some days I don't even trade and others I do, but it takes time to hold into my position, so maybe for a whole week I hold on, and after that I make nice profit once I close it in a day. If you day trade obviously it is different but you can't calculate per hour, since some days you end up with negative profit. Most volatile is at London open, so you can make the most or lose the most at that time. You can only expect to win 40% of the time because there are five options (against/with/whipsaw/ with then against/against then with) - that may be confusing. Anyways what I am saying is that you shouldn't base your expectations on others. Doing this will only frustrate you and not help with your success in the market, you gotta take is slow, but gradual, to build it up. Think about it If you see someone making a nice profit and your in a drawdown, your going to get angry, and it will afect your trading. Yearly you may have a goal of 25-40%, but let's face it you should always challenge yourself to do better - complacency leads to failure. Even though the average successful person in the market makes 20-30% since your just starting out, I would get a feel for the market, and not worry to much on how much to make, once you start trading, you'll understand.

Stay Cool, Take it Easy!
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2007, 12:40 PM
 

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"a realistic figure for a forex trader is 30 to 50% profit per year." that was the kind of answer I was looking for, but I understand that it's very oversimplified and that a day trader usually makes more than a swing trader etc...
But thanks for telling how you have done, more stories of how others first time as a trader have been would be much appreciated.

I guessed that the poker-trading parallel would be controversial. Still I think it's much the same.

You say:
"There are 100 million things such as technical and fundamental analysis,volumes,momentems,money managemnt,hi's & low's,daily trend,hourly trend,monthly trend,pivots,trend strenght etc etc etc have to be considered before you click that buy or sell button."

I say
"There are 100 million things such as game theory, cards, odds, implied odds, implied reverse odds, outs, counter outs, position, relative position, tournament, ring game dead-money, on-line, off-line, type of poker, limit, site, time of the day, week, month, money management on and off table, amount of tables to play, risk/reward ratio, type of opponent that have acted, type of opponent yet to act, mood at the table, etc etc etc".
have to be considered before you click that fold, raise or call. Most people don't know this or don't understand how these variables work together and that's why most people lose money.


To me it's seams similar. Mostly because you have to learn balance a lot of wage information and use your education to "see" the future and act accordingly choosing the correct action of a few alternatives. In poker fold, raise or call in trading sell or buy. Poker players also use statistical programs.

Last edited by gambler; 02-20-2007 at 12:51 PM.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2007, 12:42 PM
 

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Thanks Shadow, you got what I wanted to know.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2007, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gambler View Post
How much do you all expect to make this year and based on; hours put in/system/experience/bankroll etc..?
If you have no vision of how much you should make trading you are no very different from a poker player that plays without an idea of how much they should win, and those who play poker that way are not the best players.

And also if you don't compare your results with others how do you know if you are good or need to get better?

Now I'm going to finish the school and see what my next step will be.
Maybe I'll find out that these questions have no answers not even estimations.
Gambler,
I see what you're asking but I think everyone has different financial goals and/or their own opinion on what's good. It can be very difficult to compare since what i think is good is probably different from what you think. For instance, I play poker too i and I try to make $20 a sitting. So you can see I have a different poker objective than you...
I know this already has been pointed out to you but i just wanted to emphasize that the answer is difficult to answer since it asks for a subjective response

Anyway, i think maybe if you go through the school you will have a basic understanding of the market and will have a better idea on how to answer the question for yourself...
Good luck.
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