Happy Corner: Kiwi (NZD) pairs
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Thread: Happy Corner: Kiwi (NZD) pairs

  1. #1
    happypip's Avatar
    happypip is offline FX-Men Master Contributor and Member
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    Default NZD/USD Double Top (Daily)

    Hey guys! Did you see this double top formation on NZD/USD's daily chart? I'm thinking if I should short below the neckline around .8100. There's a nice bearish divergence, too. But I'm still trying to figure out whether fundamentals line up with techs. Help!



    Let me know what you think of this trade setup. Just leave a comment here, don't be shy!

  2. #2
    Justin Pipper is offline Newbie
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    Hi Happy!

    Shorting is a good idea especially with the impact of Christchurch aftershocks on NZD. I'm thinking of waiting for a retracement first, but I don't know what's a good level to sell yet. Hopefully someone can point it out to us! Haha.

    Good luck with this one!

    Justin Pipper

  3. #3
    shark is offline Newbie
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    Hi guys,
    I don't think selling the pair before breaking the trend line be a good idea plus 0.8100 is a strong support, you need to watch out for fake break out. but if both of them
    break it will be very god opportunity.
    just to play safer i always wait for BPC (Break out, Pull back, Continuation). it makes me higher win/loss ratio.

    Good luck

  4. #4
    happypip's Avatar
    happypip is offline FX-Men Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by shark View Post
    Hi guys,
    I don't think selling the pair before breaking the trend line be a good idea plus 0.8100 is a strong support, you need to watch out for fake break out. but if both of them
    break it will be very god opportunity.
    just to play safer i always wait for BPC (Break out, Pull back, Continuation). it makes me higher win/loss ratio.

    Good luck
    Good point, shark! So I guess I'll wait for .8100 to break then wait for a pullback to that level. That requires a lot of patience (more so because this is the daily time frame we're looking at), but it could yield better profitability. Come to think of it, breakout-and-retest trades used to work out well for me before.

    Thanks for the feedback and I'll be sure to keep an eye on this pair!

  5. #5
    happypip's Avatar
    happypip is offline FX-Men Master Contributor and Member
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    Default Happy Corner: Kiwi (NZD) pairs

    Happy day, guys!

    Since I've been getting tons of trade ideas from my friends on my @Happy_pip Twitter and Playing with Comdolls Facebook page, I decided to post some of my good trade ideas here.

    I'm not restricting the setups to NZD/USD though. As long as it's Kiwi-related, then I'm all for it! After all, I like to watch NZD crosses too.

    I look forward to getting your feedback on these trade ideas of mine. Everyone is welcome to share their opinion so don't be shy!

  6. #6
    stencool is offline Newbie
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    Default NZD/USD Setup

    Hi happypip

    Here is my trade idea on NZD/USD.
    Name:  11-06-16_NZDUSD.jpg
Views: 747
Size:  27.4 KB
    Retest of former support now acting as resistance.
    Entry: around 0.8100. depends a little if stochastic is in oversold, but around that area of resistance.
    SL: Have always hard for stop loss. Say around Fib-75% level + some pips. 81.60
    PT: I zoom out to daily chart and put it a little over recent bottom/range 0.7820
    This setup gives risk:reward ratio 1:4,67

    Must add that I am bias for strong USD also
    What do you ppl think.

  7. #7
    happypip's Avatar
    happypip is offline FX-Men Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by stencool View Post
    Hi happypip

    Here is my trade idea on NZD/USD.
    Name:  11-06-16_NZDUSD.jpg
Views: 747
Size:  27.4 KB
    Retest of former support now acting as resistance.
    Entry: around 0.8100. depends a little if stochastic is in oversold, but around that area of resistance.
    SL: Have always hard for stop loss. Say around Fib-75% level + some pips. 81.60
    PT: I zoom out to daily chart and put it a little over recent bottom/range 0.7820
    This setup gives risk:reward ratio 1:4,67

    Must add that I am bias for strong USD also
    What do you ppl think.
    Hello and welcome, stencool! You know what? I'm waiting to short right around .8100 too since the pair broke down the neckline of the double top I pointed a couple of days ago (Right here). But some traders advised me to wait for the actual break first then go short on the retest... which is exactly what you plan to do. Good thinking right there!

    It seems that the US dollar is gonna be strong in the next few days, especially since risk is off. You got a nice reward-to-risk ratio, and I just might take the same trade as yours. I just gotta figure out where I wanna set my stops and targets though. Maybe around 25 pips above the 61.8% Fib retracement (.8122)? Or above the double top if I'm feeling conservative.

    Anyone else looking at this pair? Care to share your thoughts? Just post 'em right here!

  8. #8
    happypip's Avatar
    happypip is offline FX-Men Master Contributor and Member
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    Default NZD/USD: Breakdown and Retest?

    All right, folks! A lot of us are watching the NZD/USD breakdown and are looking for opportunities to short so I thought I'd post a quick update.



    The pair already broke below the neckline of the double top formation but it seems like it's retracing now. The .8100 area looks like a nice area to short, as pointed out by some of our fellow comdoll enthusiasts earlier.

    I put up some Fibs and noticed that .8100 lines up with the 38.2% level. Then the next area of support on the daily time frame is just above the .7800 mark. Now I just have to figure out where to set my stop... HELP!

  9. #9
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    Hi happypip.
    I like your idea and setup here. I think if the Kiwi was able to rally back to above 0.8120 then the break would be invalid. Over the last one and a half month the 0.8110/15 zone was a significant resistance turned support and it broke on Wednesday. 0.8120 is also the 61.8% retracement of the this week's rout off 0.8215 high. Weekly has a nice stochastic bearish divergence too...

  10. #10
    happypip's Avatar
    happypip is offline FX-Men Master Contributor and Member
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    Oh, hey! It's nice to hear about the NZD from someone who's actually from New Zealand! Yep, I'll definitely set my stop above the 61.8% Fib, maybe at .8150 or a tad higher.

    Thanks for pointing out that divergence on the weekly chart! I hardly look at that very long-term time frame but that's a pretty good confirmation, right there!

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