CHF/JPY Long

Pair: CHF/JPY
Timeframe: Daily/8 hour
Long/Short: Long
Entry: 100.00 (or as close as possible)
Stop: 99.34
Profit Target: 105.00
R:R ratio: ~ 1:7.5


Trade Rational:
Continuation of yen weekness
Major phsychological level (100) has been tested more than once & still holding
Long term (3 month) trendline since all yen crosses bursted has also been holding
(almost to the pip)
The pair has a very clear bullish flag formation (confirmed if broken, currently @ 101.35 & falling)

Profit target at major psychological level (105) coinciding with 100% extension of the previous leg up (88-98)
and the 61.8% extension of the latest upward move (95-103.5), monthly R2 @ 105.37

Drats… Prices on my platform have opened with a [B]HUGE[/B] gap ~ 100pips, currently almost 200pips above the 100 level…
Daily ATR (14) is @ 146pips…

“Japan’s government is likely to nominate Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, who has called for pumping more money into the economy, as its next central bank governor, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday. Kuroda, formerly Japan’s top currency diplomat, has already been offered the post unofficially by the government, which plans to submit its nominees for three BOJ leadership posts to parliament this week, the paper said. Kikuo Iwata, an academic known as one of the most vocal advocates of aggressive monetary expansion, is likely to be nominated as deputy BOJ governor, the Nikkei said without citing sources.”

hope you moved SL to BE. i feel a downwawe on my bones

Actually I hope price retraces the gap, I’m not in the trade yet, waiting for 100.50 since 100 is too far atm…
Didn’t see such a gap coming… :frowning:

Than, I’m with you on waiting! my TP would be 104, though, and I haven’t see the gap you are talking about.

CHF/JPY Still being a hard pair to trade until today 2013 :wink:

I was lucky enough to be very busy & away from the platform during the yen surge which kept me out of the trade!
These are situations where stops are invaluable as prices dropped almost 200pips below the stop in a matter of minutes…

CHF/JPY during the recent Days could ascend with reformation and record the top price of 114.417. Right now the mentioned top price is recorded by the next descending candle and is one of the most important resistance levels in front of price.With the formation of a Shooting star and Harami candlestick pattern, there is a warning for formation of a Top price and changing direction in the chart but closing of the descending candle at the end of day is necessary for attention to this signal.

According to the formed price movements, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with idea ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 between the top price of 114.417 and bottom price of 111.218 that warns about descending of the price from the D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator in daily time frame is in saturation buy area and confirms the harmonic D point with its possible descending cycle and warns about the potential of changing price direction during the next candles.Generally until the top price of 114.417 is preserved , there is the possibility of descending of the price during next days.

CHF/JPY during the recent weeks was in a strong and consistent uptrend that buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 124.145. Price has been stopped from more ascend by reaching to the specified resistance levels(made of 2 peak prices) in the picture below and with exit of some buyers from their trades , the Shooting Star candlestick patterns have been created. These candles shows vulnerability and indecision market in ascending or descending of price that for confirmation it needs closing of a bearish candle.
As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a Shark harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 111.231 and top price of 124.145 that warns the price downfall from the D point of this pattern and has been prevented from more increase till now. According to the strong and consistent uptrend, Stoch indicator is in saturation buy area and in divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the created top price and warns about the potential of changing price direction. Generally according to the technical signs in the price chart, until the top price of 124.145 is preserved; there is the potential for descending and price reformation in this currency pair.