LONG EUR/JPY if support holds @ 139.80-140.0 range

Hello Traders,

The key support of 140.0. range is still intact. Looking forward on this week, pay attention to JAPAN’s Q1 GDP, EURO ZONE’s CPI & GDP. It gives us a further direction of the trend. Meanwhile Yen may trade to further low if the US S&P500 & Japanese NIKKEI225 continues to hit higher highs. In this case it will be important to watch how the Japanese equities respond to key economic data and if Nikkei losses bullish momentum may result in Yen strength. If euro zone data’s disappoint, break out of 140.0 support could occur very aggressively.

so based on these key news with key support of 140.0 range ,
If support breaks go short with Target at 139.00, 137.80 and 136.50 ( medium to long term)
If support holds go long with targets at 141.50, 142.30 and 143.00 ( medium to long term)

We personally prefer short trade based on long term bearish fundamental view for euro currency.

We wish you all happy trading day.


JPY-based FX pairs are indeed very sensistive to risk and actually track quite nicely when comparing to such indices as the SP500 and the Nikkei.

What is your strategy to enter the market?
You mention, “if support breaks…” - may you please elaborate?
Are you simply setting a pending order under your horizontal line to go short? How would you factor in the potential for a false break?

Hi,
Thank you very much for your response.

We take on board technical analysis & fundamental factors to support our arguments on this particular pair trade.

Daily close below 139.80 & break of support favour our technical analysis. But as we said above we will look into key economic datas of JAPAN’s GDP & EUROZONE GDP+CPI.

We don’t have any pending orders below support. We will wait till coming Thursday to see how Euro zone deliver their key datas. This event clearly give us a direction of the trend. If we see better result than expected, of course EUR may rally & DRAGHI won’t do anything new on June meeting. If we see poor data, ECB intervention is very likely. So when we have 70-90% conviction on technical & fundamental we execute the trade for our medium to long term targets.

The reason why We’ve mentioned if support breaks… Because this might help traders to enter the trade at early stage with more pips in profit & might be good entry point for day/short term traders.

Hope we have explained you as you expected.

Thank you.

Here is the another reason to sell this pair if 140.0 support breaks.

Hello Traders,
We have entered short @ 139.50 today. We will keep our target to 136.50. However we prefer to hold this trade till next ECB meetings and beyond if we see any further selling pressure to euro. We are closely watching the price action and economic events everyday and ready to act accordingly.

Thank you & have a happy trading day.

Dude, you got some balls! I’m long Eur/jpy, it’ll spike back up to 141 in no time as usd/jpy strengthens also. All IMHO.

Be cautious here, JPY crosses are sensitive to risk.
Additionally, the EURO exodus may not be over just yet…

[QUOTE=“risc6k;628532”]Dude, you got some balls! I’m long Eur/jpy, it’ll spike back up to 141 in no time as usd/jpy strengthens also. All IMHO.[/QUOTE]

hi,
I have no idea, under what circumstances you have long this pair, technical and fundamentals favour more downside risk than upside at this stage. USD/JPY is trying to break 101.40 and this week indices under selling pressure. Meantime Japan’s Prelim GDP shows 1.5% growth compare to previous 0.2%, it supports more strength in JPY. So selling pressure in S&P500, Nikkei may increase risk appetite and strengthen the JPY. on the other hand ECB depreciation on EUR is very likely across the board and still on play among traders.

I would suggest May be very short term the pair may go higher to trigger some stop loss levels of short positions & may fall back. Having said this, anything can happen. We may be wrong as well. So we wish you very successful trading.

Woo what a ride. Still long but missed all the fun downhill and profits offcourse. You think this is done. I bet there will be choppiness but overall no new lower lows for yuppy eh? :slight_smile:

[QUOTE=“risc6k;630037”] I bet there will be choppiness but overall no new lower lows for yuppy eh? :)[/QUOTE]
Hi ,
We do still favour more downside. But we may see side way trading for the time being rather than upside. The next ECB meeting is still a key event to decide next move. Traders believe 0.15 basic points of rate cut. Market may digest this already. But EURO selling pressure is still high against $. But crosses are holding their recent low. So we prefer side way trading. We will be watching price action very closely and we are still stick with our previous strategy.

These JPY crosses are sensitive to risk…
Almost all risk trends across the board have been rallying over the last 48 hours- FTSE, EUSTX50 lagging a bit, Nikkei and SP500 leading the charge.

[QUOTE=“FOREXunlimited;630278”]These JPY crosses are sensitive to risk… Almost all risk trends across the board have been rallying over the last 48 hours- FTSE, EUSTX50 lagging a bit, Nikkei and SP500 leading the charge.[/QUOTE]

Yes we agree & I’m with you on this concern. . Very good points to consider looking forward.

Hello traders,

We’ve closed all our short positions @ 138.55 today. Based on EUR fundamental we are not convinced to hold our short positions further. (Short to Medium term) however long term fundamental favours euro weekness. Having said this we stay side line for the moment.

Thank you.