USD/JPY Long by longtermtrader

Long or Short: LONG


Entry Point: Market 79.05

Stop Loss: 100 Trailing Stop (equal to the weekly 20 period ATR)

Profit Target/s: Depends on when TS gets hit

Reward-to-risk Ratio: Again, depends on trailing stop

Risk percentage: 5-10%

Indicators: 200SMA (white line)

Trade Rationale:

I’m one of those long-term traders, so this trade idea might not be for all. Also, I tend to put bigger positions than most and hold them for more than a week. I thought there’s something significant happening in USD/JPY so I decided to share my idea. I base my trades mostly on fundamentals with a hint of technical analysis.

As you can see, USD/JPY managed to break past through the 200 SMA convincingly. This, together with the new QE program of the BOJ and the prospect of another currency intervention, would continue to lead to more gains for the pair.

I feel like this trade is too mainstream. Everyone is suggesting long euro, which brings out the contrarian in me. Also, each time they have YenTervention, the bottom has dropped out. So…what is different this time? It’s hard to use only the technicals when there has been sommuch manipulation…the latest of which was to the tune of 10 trillion yen!

I read your post with much interest. good luck

Bloomberg Feb. 18th 12AM est. BOJ increased it’s asset purchase fund to 30 trillion yen. This should make things more interesting. In Oct, like akantardjian said, it was only 10 trillion yen and remember how the market moved then? So longtermtrader I am with on this trade.

Thanks ascms.

In the medium-term, I think the pair still has more room to rally. The BOJ and the Ministry of Finance has mentioned before that they want at least 80.00 for the pair. Once price reaches that level, then I will reevaluate my position.

USD/JPY fast approaching 80.00. Get ready to take some profit. Acct should be up almost 5% by now.

Hi,
I took this trade myself a typical bounce of the 200 Day , watch for retracement between 79.98 & 80.24

What’s the chances it will break $80?

It just did. Be careful at this level. Could see a major retracement. 80.00 is very significant for Ministry of Finance. It’s their short-term target of USD/JPY.

The pair hit the daily pivot pt today and has receded a bit. Major support level is 79.525 which is the high of the of the last intervention. Again nice trade :slight_smile: