2nd Euro Retracement

[professorx]

I'm looking for a bounce back to 1.3275 by tonight. If it breaks that level, price is likely to go even higher. If you placed a buy order just above 1.3275, you could get some sleep tonight and possibly wake up to profits. Your order will not be triggered if it goes the other way.

If you spot a nice reversal pattern at one of the fibs, you could even buy at that point. Are you ready to make money ?

[ravercan]

thanx for the info.. you might be right. However i see it go higher after 10 tomarrow, while overnight it will be going down. Nevertheless, the overall trend is bullish.

[professorx]

Looks like the reversal happened even sooner than I thought. But don't think it isn't possible for it to still bounce off a lower fib before the penetration tonight. The green dots are pointing out the outside bars. The last 3 reversals including the one that just occured were initiated with an outside bar. The red dot indicates an outside bar that hit major fib support, and didn't follow through; it's not perfect.

An outside bar occurs when the range of a bar has a lower low, and a higher high than the preceding bar. Basically an engulfing candle if we were looking at candlesticks.

[professorx]

Well at 1:45am 1.3275 was broken with a PinBar. If your long trade was triggered, you should close your position and reverse it after the PinBar formed. My mistake was placing a buy entry order above the high. What I need to do next time is wait for the bar to CLOSE above the high. That would have saved you from attack of the PinBar and even allowed you to make some money playing the PinBar.

[professorx]

If you played the PinBar there was a 50 pip drop to a tight level of fib confluence. On my 15 minute chart you can see that at the tight level of fib confluence was another bullish outside bar, signaling another reversal. Then prices bolted to new highs. Admittedly I was a little crestfallen after the PinBar forced me to close my position, I should have maintained my original idea that prices would bounce off the still lower fib and then break the high. Live and learn.

[professorx]

Lessons:

1. Do not trade while doing accounting homework. You will miss many signals.

2. If you are placing buy orders above the high in anticipation of a breakout, do so several pips above the high, maybe even 10 pips above the high. You will still have 10's of pips to make above that level and it's safer.

3. If you have the time and you are up all hours of the night, watch and wait for an actual CLOSE above the high to confirm a breakout; then buy at market.

[pinkueric]

hello guys,

I am facing difficulty with trailing stops.I am stopped out because of the whipsaw movement,even when the market moves in the direction I thought.

yesterday entered short (EUR/USD) @ 1.3317 with a trailing stop of 15 points.It peaked to 1.3336 and then dropped to 1.3258.i was stopped out @ 1.3332 ending my deal in a lose.

How can i use this trailing stop in a better way.If i use a higher trailing stop points then I might loose on the gains that i have made.Is there any other mechanism where i can control it more efficiently.I was wondering how position traders use this?

Thanks

[professorx]

Originally Posted by professorx

Lessons:

1. Do not trade while doing accounting homework. You will miss many signals.

2. If you are placing buy orders above the high in anticipation of a breakout, do so several pips above the high, maybe even 10 pips above the high. You will still have 10's of pips to make above that level and it's safer.

3. If you have the time and you are up all hours of the night, watch and wait for an actual CLOSE above the high to confirm a breakout; then buy at market.

Someone had a question that the mods deleted and it went something like this, "What timeframe should I use when determining a close above the high?" And I think I found a good answer to that question in this book I just finished:

"Your trading methodolgy can be in any time frame that suits you, but all your entry and exits signals have to be based in the same time frame. For example, if you use variables that identify a particular support and resistance pattern on a 30-minute bar chart, then your risk and profit objective calculations also have to be determined in a 30-minute time frame."

I think this is basically how I answered the question before the posts were deleted, but finding the explination in this book motivated me to post it again.