Gotta love the smart traders and their relentless ingenuity, they took the euro bears to the slaughter all week, yet always kept them interested in an impending short, which looked like the right trade probably most of the week 
SLY!
Yeah. After Wednesday nyo, I changed from a short bias to long. The Greece ābailoutā started coming to light and realized there are likely few sellers out there. Commercials increased longs perlast weeks cot. And hedgers increased shorts. Too many people short for it not to go up was my thinking.
Wed gu had a big drop to a prior sr level while eu stayed flat. Saw that as accumulation. They didnāt need more sellers onthe eu. They were there. They needed some sellers on gu, dropped the price, the zoom zoom up.
Weekly update
A decent week. 1.9%. 6 trades. Won 2, lost 4. The first 2 trades I lost was due to entering trades before I left for work in the morning and couldnāt manage appropriately. I wanted to close one early, and cancel the otherā¦but was having laptop issues at work and couldnāt. If I was on a live account, I would have called the broker, or called my wife and had her close them out. But taking credit for the losses even though I know if I was live I wouldnāt have lost them.
Also, another loss, as I said yesterday, had the direction and bias right Just entered a little early. Stop was hit by 3 pips, then raced in my direction.
Soā¦1.9% return this week. And 3 losers that Iām OK with. Only 1 trade was wrong that I had the bias completely off or didnāt react to the market correctly.
updated picture. Incorrectly had last weeks initially.
Nice results. Letās trade 
Yeah. Iām starting with 1k. After doubling, o plan to add a substantial amount. But will likely keep the balance on this as a 1k account for illustrative purposes.
This is why we have to keep our HTF perspective in check. I tried to short fiber coming out of this VSTF consolidation and got creamed. Then I wrote down all the reasons why I had the directional bias wrongā¦ First of all, the HTF Market Profile is a bullish trend that started on 1/16/12 at 1.2625. We have to remember that we are trend traders not counter-trend scalpers.
So if we zoom out a little bit we should have been looking for a low to form at a HTF key level. Thats exactly what happened on 2/16/12 during NYO, when price was reaching for the previous weekās STOPs at that 3040 level. We had choppy price action into a HTF low at 2980 resulting in an aggressive bullish trend burst. The following day closed 10pips above its open, ending the week with an ITL in place. At this point we are anticipating a STF bullish trend within a HTF bullish trend, in sync with the HTF Market Profile. Looking for the judas under ARL (Asian Range Low) during LO, would have allowed us to participate in the move on Monday 2/20/12, and kept us out of losing trades all week. I need to remember that trend force trumps overbought/oversold indications.
Ok so now its Thursday 2/23/12 we have been in a tight VSTF consolidation for several daysā¦ We had a potential Short Term High on Tuesday during LO followed by a flat Wednesday. You could make the case that a fractal high was forming off of last weekās high. But then during LO price blows through Tuesdayās high and your whole theory would have been denied and you would have been able to call an extension of the STF trend initiated the previous week (2/16/12). Worst Case Scenario you take the 60pips made on Monday. Best Case Scenario, you also go long on Thursday, during NYO, for another 80pips.
Daily Chart showing December 2010 key low, forming an inverted H&S
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/Dec-2010keylow.png
Daily Chart showing RR tracks with a long wick marking the low on 2/16/12
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/tracks.png
4Hr Chart proving the bullish trend by showing huge gains following oversold indications
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/4hrchart.png
4Hr Chart showing a hammer at each buying opportunity
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/2hammers.png
1Hr Chart showing the level where STOPs were targeted
Note the Type 1 Divergence on 2/6 and 2/16 during NYO
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/stopraid.png
Snapshots continued on next postā¦
1Hr chart proving that in a trending market price tends to respect the weekly central pivot/
Note the STF downtrend during a HTF bullish trend and the recent STF bullish trend in sync with the HTF Market Profile
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/centralpivotrespect.png
Just when you thought a swing high was forming,
15Min Chart showing the virgin lows during that tight VSTF consolidation/
Those lows were being respected which indicated bullish Market Flowā¦
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/marketflow.png
If your initial STOP does not take out the Fractal High/Low, formed during VSTF consolidation, then scaling in may prove profitable. Your theory needs to be proven wrong before aborting the plan. In this case our theory was denied prior to entry.
I would really appreciate some constructive criticism on my analysis.
GLGT 
IĀ“m definitely interested in following your progress and I also think itĀ“s helpful for many of us here. Reading you from your beginnings has been like a reality show and IĀ“m impressed with the consistency you have achieved. So yes in some way youĀ“re a testimony of what hard work can do for us.
On a side note, I know itĀ“s hindsight and many of you have already seen this, but IĀ“m amazed at how MichaelĀ“s price projections are so darmn accurate. IĀ“ve been really happy to widen a little bit my profit targets with more condifence.
Particularly Eur/Usd made its weekly high at the 161.8 TTĀ“s extension and the 200 Fib extension from the previous triangleĀ“s range. Amazing isnĀ“t it?
Hello,
On Twitter Michael said that he posted a video on the new Babypips thread. I could not find the video. Can someone please direct me to the video.
Thank you so much.
Csk.
First pageā¦
I think this is a common mindset amongst a lot of people, myself included. Iāve found myself numerous times tightening SLās, closing trades early, and lower TP projections in order to either a) protect my current winnings (day, week, month, whatever it is) or b) from fear of losing more after 1 or more losing trades. Of course these things donāt work and end up costing not only your pocket book but your emotional stability. Thereās not much worse than adjusting your SL to tighter than normal just to get stopped out before it moves in your direction straight to your TP mark when your standard SL would have resulted in a successful trade. Closing early or adjusting to a lower TP arenāt as bad, but they still effect you emotionally in future trades when they would have landed on your original TP limit and net you a lot more (although there is some solace in knowing your original analysis was in fact correct even though you didnāt stick to it).
These are just discipline and confidence things we need to work on. We know these concepts and our analysis work, weāve seen it time and time again. There is no reason for us to move away from what we know, yet itās extremely tough to stay completely consistent with our trading. The toughest part of trading is overcoming our own bad habits, insecurities, and doubts and simply putting what we know works into action time and time again without straying. But these things are simply something we have to do with time and effort. If we canāt break our bad habits and emotional instability we shouldnāt be traders.
I hope youāre able to stick to your plan as you increase your account and keep yourself in check. Iāll be working on doing the same in the coming weeks.
Does anybody have Mikeās twitter account name?
Thanks in advance
Its on the very first post on the first page of this thread.
thank you so muchā¦
Much appreciated.
@ICT_Babypips
Wow bro congrats! 
I wish I was at that level! All the best, make the neophytes weep
Wow. Congrats! Gives me hope.
I have a question as im new to this thread (I will apologize in advance), how are we going to trade with this group (via this thread?). Will signals be put on this thread or do we follow through twitter?
Thank you all.
this is not a signal service, or group trading. This is a culmination of learning how to trade form the thread in Newbie Island.
I suggest to watch all the videos, read the thread, and once you have a firm grasp of everything, then join us over here, otherwise you will be lost the entire time
AK,
I appreciate once again sharing your hard times with us. I have had the worst month ever, even falling into the losers cycle a couple days. I thought I had my psychological issues behind me, guess not quite yet. Which is why you guys havenāt seen me around here lately. Iāve just been trying to get my head screwed back on straight. Your post the other day hit the nail on the head for me again. I had 4 or 5 positive months in a row, and bumped the equity in my account by a good chunk, then the sh*t hit the fan for me. I couldnāt lose that much money on a single trade! A trade would go staert to go against me and I began to panic. Then I started cutting my winners short, and letting my losers run. I thought I had the issue kicked a couple times, but I kept falling back in my hole after another loss. Hopefully this next week, and month I can pull out of my funk and get back on track.