A decent week. 1.9%. 6 trades. Won 2, lost 4. The first 2 trades I lost was due to entering trades before I left for work in the morning and couldn’t manage appropriately. I wanted to close one early, and cancel the other…but was having laptop issues at work and couldn’t. If I was on a live account, I would have called the broker, or called my wife and had her close them out. But taking credit for the losses even though I know if I was live I wouldn’t have lost them.
Also, another loss, as I said yesterday, had the direction and bias right Just entered a little early. Stop was hit by 3 pips, then raced in my direction.
So…1.9% return this week. And 3 losers that I’m OK with. Only 1 trade was wrong that I had the bias completely off or didn’t react to the market correctly.
updated picture. Incorrectly had last weeks initially.
Yeah. I’m starting with 1k. After doubling, o plan to add a substantial amount. But will likely keep the balance on this as a 1k account for illustrative purposes.
This is why we have to keep our HTF perspective in check. I tried to short fiber coming out of this VSTF consolidation and got creamed. Then I wrote down all the reasons why I had the directional bias wrong… First of all, the HTF Market Profile is a bullish trend that started on 1/16/12 at 1.2625. We have to remember that we are trend traders not counter-trend scalpers.
So if we zoom out a little bit we should have been looking for a low to form at a HTF key level. Thats exactly what happened on 2/16/12 during NYO, when price was reaching for the previous week’s STOPs at that 3040 level. We had choppy price action into a HTF low at 2980 resulting in an aggressive bullish trend burst. The following day closed 10pips above its open, ending the week with an ITL in place. At this point we are anticipating a STF bullish trend within a HTF bullish trend, in sync with the HTF Market Profile. Looking for the judas under ARL (Asian Range Low) during LO, would have allowed us to participate in the move on Monday 2/20/12, and kept us out of losing trades all week. I need to remember that trend force trumps overbought/oversold indications.
Ok so now its Thursday 2/23/12 we have been in a tight VSTF consolidation for several days… We had a potential Short Term High on Tuesday during LO followed by a flat Wednesday. You could make the case that a fractal high was forming off of last week’s high. But then during LO price blows through Tuesday’s high and your whole theory would have been denied and you would have been able to call an extension of the STF trend initiated the previous week (2/16/12). Worst Case Scenario you take the 60pips made on Monday. Best Case Scenario, you also go long on Thursday, during NYO, for another 80pips.
If your initial STOP does not take out the Fractal High/Low, formed during VSTF consolidation, then scaling in may prove profitable. Your theory needs to be proven wrong before aborting the plan. In this case our theory was denied prior to entry.
I would really appreciate some constructive criticism on my analysis.
I´m definitely interested in following your progress and I also think it´s helpful for many of us here. Reading you from your beginnings has been like a reality show and I´m impressed with the consistency you have achieved. So yes in some way you´re a testimony of what hard work can do for us.
On a side note, I know it´s hindsight and many of you have already seen this, but I´m amazed at how Michael´s price projections are so darmn accurate. I´ve been really happy to widen a little bit my profit targets with more condifence.
Particularly Eur/Usd made its weekly high at the 161.8 TT´s extension and the 200 Fib extension from the previous triangle´s range. Amazing isn´t it?
I think this is a common mindset amongst a lot of people, myself included. I’ve found myself numerous times tightening SL’s, closing trades early, and lower TP projections in order to either a) protect my current winnings (day, week, month, whatever it is) or b) from fear of losing more after 1 or more losing trades. Of course these things don’t work and end up costing not only your pocket book but your emotional stability. There’s not much worse than adjusting your SL to tighter than normal just to get stopped out before it moves in your direction straight to your TP mark when your standard SL would have resulted in a successful trade. Closing early or adjusting to a lower TP aren’t as bad, but they still effect you emotionally in future trades when they would have landed on your original TP limit and net you a lot more (although there is some solace in knowing your original analysis was in fact correct even though you didn’t stick to it).
These are just discipline and confidence things we need to work on. We know these concepts and our analysis work, we’ve seen it time and time again. There is no reason for us to move away from what we know, yet it’s extremely tough to stay completely consistent with our trading. The toughest part of trading is overcoming our own bad habits, insecurities, and doubts and simply putting what we know works into action time and time again without straying. But these things are simply something we have to do with time and effort. If we can’t break our bad habits and emotional instability we shouldn’t be traders.
I hope you’re able to stick to your plan as you increase your account and keep yourself in check. I’ll be working on doing the same in the coming weeks.
I have a question as im new to this thread (I will apologize in advance), how are we going to trade with this group (via this thread?). Will signals be put on this thread or do we follow through twitter?
I suggest to watch all the videos, read the thread, and once you have a firm grasp of everything, then join us over here, otherwise you will be lost the entire time
I appreciate once again sharing your hard times with us. I have had the worst month ever, even falling into the losers cycle a couple days. I thought I had my psychological issues behind me, guess not quite yet. Which is why you guys haven’t seen me around here lately. I’ve just been trying to get my head screwed back on straight. Your post the other day hit the nail on the head for me again. I had 4 or 5 positive months in a row, and bumped the equity in my account by a good chunk, then the sh*t hit the fan for me. I couldn’t lose that much money on a single trade! A trade would go staert to go against me and I began to panic. Then I started cutting my winners short, and letting my losers run. I thought I had the issue kicked a couple times, but I kept falling back in my hole after another loss. Hopefully this next week, and month I can pull out of my funk and get back on track.
thanks for the suggestion, but I’m not planning on withdrawing any funds right now. I have been trading with the lot size I was trading in November or December, which is about 1/2%. I’ll increase the lot size over time as I get back on track.
I’m definitely not glad you went through this because it really does suck, but sharing your experience is helpful for those of us that are or will go through it
I wish I was at that level! All the best, make the neophytes weep 