Hey everyone, This is my try at getting some discipline:) I have been around these forums for a couple years trading off and on and finally went live a few months back. Well, I really really wish I had gone live in the beginning of my interest in forex because I would be so much farther along now then I am. Anyway, I have thought of doing a blog/thread to post some of my own analysis and trades but keep putting it off. Well, here is a try at not regretting doing this two years down the road. haha
So… about my trading. I have spent some time following ict’s threads and can say, that even though I don’t post much over there, he is something of a mentor to me… So, if you have questions about my trading method check out his first thread. Ill be trying to mimic his style until I can truly call it my own.
My plan for this thread is to post a couple things every week. I would like to do some kind of in depth weekend analysis, a kind of game plan for the week if you will. I would also like to post my set ups and reasons for taking a trade. I work from 60 to 70 hours a week so I normally only take one to two trades per week. This is kinda tough because it means I miss a lot of really sweet set ups. On the other hand it forces me not to form the bad habit of over trading. That,s my story and I’m sticking with it. lol
Fill free to comment, offer advice, and just generally harass. lol
More to come.
I cut my teeth on firearms (been around them ALL my life) and really like the One Shot One kill analogies. Found this picture on google and had to post it because I also prefer to short.
A little about my trading; I went live at the start of February. So far I have had 19 trades. Out of 19 trades 14 of them have been losers. This puts my win rate at 26%… That is a really low percentage I know. This number is a little deceptive because some of these losing trades would have been good winners if I would have managed them correctly. Regardless I need to start picking my trades more carefully. The good new is that i have controlled my risk going into this whole thing pretty well so my draw down is only around 7%… Normally I win about 1.5 times the amount i risk which has helped a lot. I have been risking 1% per trade but starting today i’m going to start risking .05% until I can bring my account back to break even. I know this is kind of a rough start but because its my first couple months I don’t feel to bad about it. At this point in my development as a trader I’m just trying to survive by PRESERVING CAPITAL. After I start winning more consistently I will change my strategy a little and try to maximize my wins. Until then I’m just going to play good defense. Ill try and post my weekend analysis tonight when I have more time.
So I would like to get into a kind of weekly routine with this so I will make changes as I see fit. Here is a go.
USD/X
For the last week and a half we have seen a very strong move up… this move up is forming an ote at the moment as well as coming into some major resistance. I think it would be safe to assume that we well see a bounce this week at some point. I would expect to see at least a couple down days maybe even forming a long term high…
EURUSD
Market flow: is down on the daily as well as on the four hour chart.
Market structure: This one is tougher for me but i think it is down as well… both on the daily and the 4 hour. The intermediate/short term highs are tough for me to pick out but we have been in a pretty steep slide down so that doesn’t help.
Overview: On the daily we are at the 79% retracment from a swing back in Jan. We are also coming up against some resistance turned to support from Dec.
GBDUSD
Market flow: is down on the daily and 4 hour.
Market Structure: Again this is a tough one for me but I believe it is down as well.
We just saw a bounce off the 50% retracment a couple days ago. This was also an area of resistance turned support. I think we will continue down until an ote is formed taking out the 1.6000 fig. This is again some very good resistance turned support… It might be a couple days before this low is formed sense its like 90 pips from current price.
I am planning on adding a few things to my weekend analysis as I get the time… I would like to add the COT report as well as some higher time frame smt divergence. Its a work in progress;)
For this week I will be stalking the set up that is forming on the daily that I talked about in the cable… i think it will come late this week or early next week. If I take anything else this week Ill try to take pictures and list my reasons and what not. This will be a new step for me because normally I only trade the fiber. This setup is a good way to expand my horizons. haha
peace
I will follow you! I feel you with the draw down on the account. You would probably flip If you had to trade with my account. It’s funny how I have a 57%+ winning average but my account is below even. I would like to believe the dollar is going to keep rallying up. Some of the data puzzles me. If the us economy is doing so bad, why such great gains thus far? I think a lot of the data they put put is filler. To kinda keep the traders guessing. But nonetheless that’s all we have to base our trades off of besides the other two types of analysis.
Hey legond, Yeah, at the start of the week i thought the dollar would def start falling off… no such thing yet. lol We are coming up to an old high from Oct though so maybe it will bounce there. We will see.
Here is the 15 minute, we have s1 the fig and support/resistance lines. The green box was the price i wanted so i might have missed the train today… Ill wait and see.
The usdx blew right through the 79% that i was watching early this week but it might find some resistance on the high made Oct 3rd… so i think this supports the trade. The only thing I am missing is; I don’t see any good smt divergence or usdx divergence. We also have a little news coming out today…
I saw the dollar rising after the news came out that Greece was not able to create a government etc. More than likely its going to be a default situation which is going to make the euro look weak. When the euro looks weak, no matter what the situation in the us, foreign investors are likely to buy the dollar due to the fact that is is lower yielding in terms of interest making it appear to be safer. Since this past Friday all I have done is buy the dollar. So far it’s netted me only 500 pips or so, but that’s a good start considering we have two more days this week!
Okay, so the trade that I had been stalking since Monday didn’t work out. The whole “one shot one kill” idea seems to have turned into a “one shot one loss” idea. lol O well, I stuck to my money management rules so I guess I should be happy. The funny thing is i went long on Thursday, got stopped out, and then Friday was the strong move up… So, if i had waited a day I would have done great. The problem was I don’t think i would have gone long Friday anyway just because there wasn’t much of anything screaming at me from the charts. So if any of you caught Fridays move up, I would love for you to show me your pretrade reasoning!
This weeks overview:
Going into the week I was looking for a long with the cable… Wednesday was the day I should have cashed in on the idea because it was the first day that price came into the ote area that I wanted from the higher time frame. I could have grabbed 30 to 40 pips during New York Open if I would have been trading. Unfortunately I was in bed. lol To make up for it I tried to catch a move up the next day at London Open. This trade wasn’t perfect because price had already gone further then I wanted it to… but the short term stuff lined up so I took it…
Monday was a buy. Tuesday was a sell. Wednesday was kind of a rangy day. Thursday was a Sell day. Friday was a buy days. The only days I would have lost money shorting the cable this week during London open would have been Monday and Friday… So really my bias or preweek thoughts on the market were totally wrong this week.
Here is what I learned. TRADE WITH THE TREND UNTIL IT TELLS YOU OTHERWISE. I should have been going short all week with my eye on those levels that I thought would reverse price so I could sit out and watch those days. No need to pick a top or bottom when there is easy trading in between… SO, for this coming week my plan is to note areas that look like they might get in the way of the trend and NOT trade those days. Otherwise I’m just going to go with the flow.
Later this weekend I will try and post my preweek analysis. I’m Hoping to add the COT report to it but that just depends on how much time I have. peace.
Sold Fiber at 1.28071
Going well so far.
Haven’t had the time or energy to post any of my analysis. Hopefully I will get something up on it tomorrow. peace.
I have a quarter of the trade still on. Hoping to reach 1.2703. That will be my final take profit.
Pretty stoked about that last trade… I got the absolute high of the day! 105 pips in the bank. This is the biggest trade I have had so far. Pretty close to 4% back in the account.
I closed the trade based on the 423% fib extension. If I would have used the previous bigger swing to draw my extensions I would have bagged 50 more pips and closed at the low of the day. This area also had monthly weekly and daily pivots plus some resistance and a big figure… I looked at it while I was in the trade but thought I would close earlier then that just in case. Should have left a little on to run I guess.
Just shorted the pound at 1.5678
Took a quarter off the trade at 30 pips and my stop is set at break even. I’m pretty tired so I may go to bed… and check it in the morning.
Hey Gone. I use both… I use fractals for market flow… and then fibonacci for entering as well as noting key levels on larger time frames… they don’t really do anything on their own but when you have a few other things line up like key support and resistance or pivots then I take a second look.
I will certainly be following with interest 
Congrats!