Intra-day and trade ideas on Pound/Yen

[topchess]

Trying to form hourly-top at 233.95 / moved stop to breakeven.
Went to +30 testing intra-day high (hourly top now) then came to BE. Zero from this trade.

Market is so strange today.

[Jocelyn]

If you're attempting to trade this pair from an intraday stance, then you're definitely swimming against the tide.

Marking out your current weeks H-L points, price has printed some very bullish candles down there @ 230.70-90 from 15mins thru to 240mins.

It's also very clearly establishing a higher high/higher low peak-trough pattern off the temporary bottom from yesterdays descent, which surely equates to "buying dips" until the last higher low at this mornings level of 232.40 is breached?

If you're maybe looking to attack it from the 'short' side from a mid-term perspective, then waiting for price to nudge the next s&r zone @ 234.50-70 would make more sense?

But from whichever stance you're studying it, at current levels I only see "longs" at least until it negates this series of higher highs & lows.

[topchess]

That level makes sense yes, I am trying a strategy anyway, and it's all demo testing.

[topchess]

If you're maybe looking to attack it from the 'short' side from a mid-term perspective, then waiting for price to nudge the next s&r zone @ 234.50-70 would make more sense?

Exactly. As this pair looks to be turning down soon again.. It should, with weekly signal fresh and intact.

[topchess]

Buy stop triggered 234, for 234.40.
and stop 233.50. (234.40-50) area is strong resistance. hourly minor 233.95 top gave away now.

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by topchess

Buy stop triggered 234, for 234.40.
and stop 233.50.

Is this a relatively new strategy (experiment) you're testing on this pair topchess?

I can't seem to fathom your criteria process here?! Looks like you're buying at the top of each wave instead of triggering at the minor pullbacks?

The round numbers are natural s&r zones which will contantly attract often vicious kickbacks, especially as price is attempting to scale fresh intraday highs & lows or attack previous area's of s&r within a range.

It's none of my business at all, but wouldn't it be more productive to wait see if the momentum is adhering to the peak-trough behaviour (forming continuous higher high/higher low steps) before entering on the p/b triggers, & placing the stops below the prev low, as in the chart?

But like I said - I'm not sure what your base strategy is or what you're looking to test?!

[JimmyMac]

Originally Posted by Jocelyn

It's also very clearly establishing a higher high/higher low peak-trough pattern off the temporary bottom from yesterdays descent, which surely equates to "buying dips" until the last higher low is breached?

But from whichever stance you're studying it, at current levels I only see "longs" at least until it negates this series of higher highs & lows.

you can't really get much simpler than that viewpoint of how to play your risk from an intra-day angle can you

until price action breaks through a former swing level, then it remains a buy

very clear & simple explanation of how to read the ebbs & flows of pure price action.

this pair now has clear levels to watch for shorts at the 2 areas marked on the chart

other than that, it remains a good buy candidate.

[Jocelyn]

Well, as long as we got sufficient momentum flows, the price action will let you know in good time whether to stay with the trade or cut it.

The longs continue to show their muscle on whichever of these fast intra-day charts you choose to observe (5 or 15min).

The exact same principles are followed regardless of the timeframe.

Price is either making higher highs & higher lows in an uptrend, or it's not. As long as the previous swing high/low remains intact, then there's nothing to do but stay alive in the trade or book partial profits & re-align remaining stops.

The attached 5 & 15min timeframes highlight the appropriate zones & mark the relevant area's for next probable decision making.

[Jocelyn]

So, since Tuesday's visit back to the swing trough zone @ 233.0, this pair has merely meandered back & forth underneath this important range ceiling of 234.55, which contained the action from early August to end Sept.

Glancing regularly at the higher timeframe guides would have you tackling this pair from a strictly intraday perspective until a more sustained break into trend mode.

The intra-week levels would certainly have assisted in locating lower risk entries, which is really all that's been on offer thus far.

Price finds itself again threatening the prev range top here @ 234.55 into London trade, with the weeks highs approx 100 pips away @ 235.80.

Whether it has the enthusiasm to take a crack at it is another thing. At current levels, we're stuck between a rock and a hard place & att'n might be better placed elsewhere until it offers more lucrative opportunities.

[BlackPips]

Originally Posted by Jocelyn

If you're attempting to trade this pair from an intraday stance, then you're definitely swimming against the tide.

Marking out your current weeks H-L points, price has printed some very bullish candles down there @ 230.70-90 from 15mins thru to 240mins.

It's also very clearly establishing a higher high/higher low peak-trough pattern off the temporary bottom from yesterdays descent, which surely equates to "buying dips" until the last higher low at this mornings level of 232.40 is breached?

.

Hi Jocelyn,
this piece of write up is very informative and you won't believe how it has helped me.
recently, i realised that instead of looking for a ****tail of indicators that will just say wam!! and i buy/sell, it could be easier to pin-point a good entry point and flow with the trend - which is supposed to be my friend, right?

i have tried that already in a demo and it's pretty cool.
but i will like to know, how do you guage if the momentum is weakening, u know, sometimes you see a trough violated only for price to swing back and obey it.
in other times, the market could be consolidating leaving you high and dry...have you pin pointed any other means (suggestions) of guaging momentum without using indicators (am just not good with those)

also, when using peak and trough analysis, what time frame is best to use to guage the trend?

thanks and.... its a good post.