AUS/USD on the record Short

[Revsly]

Haha that was pretty funny. I'd feel worse if I wasn't on the other side of your trade. You win some, you lose some, get them next time.

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by jimbospeed

Well this week has certainly not delivered what I had hoped for. I was looking at the pair to make a steep rise and then a steep fall. WRONG!

My entry into this position at .9015 left me with a feeling of “Mumphf” .
(for those unaccustomed the word “Mumphf” please see definition below)
When I looked at the chart indicators further a feeling of extreme Mumphf ensued, but I decided to stay in the trade and continue with my gut on this. I added again to my position when the price reached .9085 on Friday. I have berated myself a little for looking too much at the fundamentals as I saw them and getting caught in “Trading the News”. When I looked further into the Ozzie employment numbers, the numbers showed that all the “gains” in the index had been through part-time employees . If you take out the part-timers you get an actual decrease in employment of 7,500 according to the news wires anyway….

Now the good news, in looking at the day/week chart we are at critical resistance level of 61.8 fib. A sustained break above this level should take it to the 100% (around .9350) and to me, would look like a true double top and cause a catastrophic failure ( Sorry for the melodrama but so seldom get to use that in a sentence) and what I see as a possible major trend reversal…

Bottom line is that this is going to turn into a position trade as opposed to a swing trade and I’m in it until the end…or a break above .9350



Merriam-Webster Dictionary

Definition- Mumphf

Pronunciation/ Mum-ff/

Function- adverb

To cause nausea or disgust:

1. That feeling you get whilst hugging the porcelain god right before you “heaver” after drinking eight pints and twelve shots at the pub.

2. That feeling you get right after a “heaver” when you notice your actually in the ladies lieu and not the gents.

3. That even worse feeling you get when you’ve realized you never made it off the barstool in the first place.

Jimmy Young called a long in this pair based on fundamentals at the start of last week. Major issues relate to the obvious weakness in the US economy and strength here in Australia. So it depends how you read the fundamentals but I would have thought few would argue that a resource economy like Australia with little in the way of subprime type issues (although there is some exposure) was going to do better in the near term. Our interest rates are up as we battle inflation, and we can also see the panic reductions by the Fed. This morning Rio, our second biggest miner turned DOWN a 65% offered rise in their contracts with China who in turn are desperately trying to buy Rio. I think wait for a pullback and get in long if you want to play on the fundamental field with this pair

[jimbospeed]

I remember when Rio was a good time!!!

Now Rio means more like...holy Crap!!! Go long!! Go long!!!

which is precisely what I did and got me back some nice pips today...

I really didn't know that would come "out of the Blue" To those of us way over yonder) but I do know when to make the call that every good General knows how to make...... in a Calm... Stern and even voice.....

Everybody Run like hell!!!!!

[jimbospeed]

Originally Posted by tonymand

Jimmy Young called a long in this pair based on fundamentals at the start of last week. Major issues relate to the obvious weakness in the US economy and strength here in Australia. So it depends how you read the fundamentals but I would have thought few would argue that a resource economy like Australia with little in the way of subprime type issues (although there is some exposure) was going to do better in the near term. Our interest rates are up as we battle inflation, and we can also see the panic reductions by the Fed. This morning Rio, our second biggest miner turned DOWN a 65% offered rise in their contracts with China who in turn are desperately trying to buy Rio. I think wait for a pullback and get in long if you want to play on the fundamental field with this pair

When I was making my "predictions" last week I was reading that commodity prices were falling....overall, consumption economies were faltering and the ozzie buck was near it's all time high. The thought being "how much of this is already priced in"?? Most of your raw materials go to asia and the ...and the US if I'm not mistaken? anyway, the thought was that as the economies cool so will the high flying OZ$. The Brazilians raising prices on Ore and all that caught me totally be surprise and in a trending market news like that is certainly going to add to the trend...

So...(uncomfortable silence)

But I'm still gonna watch the 93.5 level ha ha ha!!!!!.....(he says as the water in that sinking ship laps his very feet )

[jimbospeed]

Had a great day today as I hope anyone and all who might read this did as well…

I have been working and working on a system to trade live with and have finally come up with this prototype. After final tweeks and arduous back tests (whew!) I began trading with this yesterday and it’s really really working well….I had some problems last night getting my brain to trust what the chart says and not what fast-times Vegas Jimmy says in his whee’little brain… It can be so hard not gamble trade or emotion trade and trust the system cause it works….Dang Nab'it! Of course money management is just as (if not more) important as the charting system no matter how precognizant it might be and that’s where I did much better today…I go back and forth between candlesticks and linear but find it better to watch the linear realtime and use the sticks for confirmation. (MT4 is great for back and forth)

So…made pips short made pips long got back everything I’d lost in the last week’er so staying short on the Oz…

Included a screen shot for anyone who wants to take a Gander. If anything its colorful….Jim’s Technicolor Dream-coat!!!

(And I’m not even Jewish)