AUDJPY: Short or too late?

[topchess]

Hello,

I was visiting babypips as my usual and found great new addons, such great forums, all in all I am impressed by the hard work invested in tutorials and developments of babypips.

I want to start sharing ideas with you. I am taking a trade on AUDJPY and I am not 100% convinced that I am on the right track (maybe too late).. Perhaps some traders can make their effective input on this.

Is this a top?

In 1 Dec, AUDJPY made a higher high but closed lower than previous candle low. Today it dropped to 90.70, but almost reversed to high 91.18. do you think the down move is done?

I am already short in line with this reversal pattern, but its slowing somehow.

Following 1-Day chart of AUDJPY|.

[4xfanatic]

What timeframe is that chart? Daily? Was that high a critical resistance level? When a chart makes a new high I like to look back and see the last time the price was at that level. If I see it's a strong support/resistance then I'll look for a reversal trade.

[topchess]

It's Daily, and it's a new trend high.

[pristen]

I looked at the daily chart and it looks like the last time the pair was at 91.00 was 12/05/2005. The pair bounced down after that so your short looks pretty good considering that the pair hasn't made any gains past this level since then. You might have to hold onto it if the pair just stays put for a while but I think the short play is a good one. Good find

[topchess]

Indeed. It didn't start to hurt me yet I appreciate your response.

Key reason for my trade wasn't only this. but when the candle made a new high and closed below previous candle low. I am stopping loss above recent swing high.

[Pipcrawler]

I just wanted to add that there is speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at their next interest rate meeting. This may be priced into the market leading up to the event which should help your short position out.

[topchess]

Originally Posted by Pipcrawler

I just wanted to add that there is speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at their next interest rate meeting. This may be priced into the market leading up to the event which should help your short position out.

Thanks for the valuable fundamental note. I was not aware of this speculation.

[Pipcrawler]

You're welcome! I just took a quick look at AUDJPY....looks like your trade is in the money, right? congrats!

[topchess]

Thank you. It paid very nicely.

[pinkueric]

I am facing difficulty with trailing stops.I am stopped out because of the whipsaw movement,even when the market moves in the direction I thought.

yesterday entered short (EUR/USD) @ 1.3317 with a trailing stop of 15 points.It peaked to 1.3336 and then dropped to 1.3258.i was stopped out @ 1.3332 ending my deal in a lose.

How can i use this trailing stop in a better way.If i use a higher trailing stop points then I might loose on the gains that i have made.Is there any other mechanism where i can control it more efficiently.I was wondering how position traders use this?

Thanks