my swing trade plan -
pretty ez - to set up - pretty ez to follow - for now pretty difficult to verify good vs. bad entries - -not enough repetitions: but here goes.
Step 1 - draw solid red horizontal lines at daily ppz - s+r - zoom way out to get as many daily candles as you can on your chart - simply plot solid red lines where price seems to flip -- somewhere in the 100 - 150 pip range>???
Step 2 -draw a dashed blue horizontal line - - at 50% between each red line.
Now with those drawn in -- - I've done many pairs for testing purposes - - drop down to 1 hr time frame - again as many candles as you can fit - zoom out
check out my pic - the last 'bigger' swing passed a blue dashed line - and passed it with pretty good distance - -so wait for price to come back to 50% fibs - the orange box ( I think I am going with like a 72% fib for stop loss) and enter in direction of first swing (right now I have no targets nor basis for my stoploss - -and or my break even point - - but for now it is set to break even at 30 pips if it gains 30 pips quickly, otherwise leave it until the end of day - or many many hours or even two days - -and set to B.E. at 50 pips -- - - and or move it a little tighter each day I don't know yet.)
Some odd thoughts and other goofy ideas -
as you can see in this pic - fairly confident price is moving down cause it broke the red line - then bounce off it, to then break the blue line (maybe that needs to be a criteria? I don't know)
Also I am noting - that the amount of time it takes to retrace might maybe need to be equal or lesser amount of time than what it took to make the swing.
See check points A and B and C on chart - - A was a little on; but worked very well. A took a 1/2 day to cross and about 1/2 day to retrace. B was a bigger one, that also worked very well, B was a full day to cross and a full day to retrace to 50% and C was a bigger one that I got in on and at this moment is still open, again C took 1 and 1/2 days to cross and 1 and 1/2 days to retrace to 50%.
Another thought is the 'phases' accumulation - mark up - re-accumulation - mark up - etc. . . I think recognizing these will be a very key element in this style.
So that brings in a thought of "never" play a reversal - - in other words prior to point A on the chart we were in and around the upper red line for quite some time - - At this time I do not know that this was actually distribution - or if it could have been accumulation and go even higher -- after it breaks the first line downward, then I know it was distribution - -and price made it's mark-down - -so very likely we'll get a 'stall' re-distribution - and price will mark down again just ramblings.
Comments/ Critics / Suggestions / all welcome.
That's it for now -- I'll try to post 1 or two times a week to let you know how it's going. (Hopefully great)
very mixed bag for the past week and a half
6 trades 4 losers (of which two were not traded to plan and if they were, they would have been break even - got in late as I am still 'learning' my new style)
so with the would have scenario
so then 6 trades = 2 winners 2 breakeven and 2 losers for a total of about 1% profit (not satisfied at all)
however 2 positions open at the moment both will be winners as stop has moved to positive pips - so worst case scenario including open trades
8 trades = 4 winners 2 breakeven 2 losers and worst case 2.5% profit in a 2 week span. (not impressed; but better than I normally do ) AND better than my retirement account at 1.7% for the year .. .prolly less now haven't checked it in awhile.
I have 3 pending orders to last through tomorrow - if triggered - I'll have more 'stats' for next week -if not triggered tomorrow will delete orders and search for new ones.