The Forex Portfolio - How to Gain Consistent Profits by Staying in the Market 24/7

Hi! This is my analysis for today!

The pip profit is above yesterday’s. Let see what the market is telling me, hope good news!

[ul]
[li]NZDJPY bias long. It is telling me that it maybe get a correction. I think I’m going to move my stop 10 pips below previous day low. That is a small risk of 40 pips.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias long. It is retracing, I’m going to move my stop below previous short term support. It is by far the worst of my current trades both in pips and cash, so if it drops a little more, I will close it with the stop. The stop is risking only 33 pips more.[/li][li]USDJPY bias long. It is showing support, 3 doji like candles without breaking the support, and also just on my uptrend channel. That is enough for me to leave it untouched.[/li][li]AUDUSD bias … well, don’t know what to think about it. I think I’m going to wait until a more estable condition on it, because yesterday’s candle was too long and current candle is already very long, and very near my support, so I think it is too risky for me to short it. Also the channel, that I use to define my bias on most pairs, is almost flat. I’m not going to trade it for a while.[/li][li]CADJPY bias long. The support is holding. USD and CAD are somewhat correlated, so I think it is reasonable that both are showing similar signals for me. I’m not going to move anything on this pair for the moment.[/li][li]NZDCAD bias long. I see the support holding, but to be safe I’m moving my stop to previous support, that is giving me a total risk of 50 pips on the trade.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias short. It is working wonderful. Thanks to weaker data from AUD today all the bad moves on AUDJPY is offseted by this pair. Not looking anything to move my stop.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias short, same as AUDCAD.[/li][li]GBPCAD bias long. I see a bullish engulfing pattern. That very well could transform to a 3 outside up pattern if current candle closes above and green, so I’m placing a order on close above the resistance level at 1.5710.[/li][li]NZDUSD bias long, but current price action shows that there is a correction or maybe a trend change. I’m moving my stop 10 pips below previous low, that gives a total risk of less than 10 pips to the trade.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias long, just above my uptrend lower line channel, I think a buy is very near on the pair, but I want to see a nice candlestick on it because is some correlation risk with NZDUSD that has also risk of end of the uptrend because the patttern and also there is the correlation between NZD and AUD and AUD is a litttle weak.[/li][li]GBPNZD bias long. I just opened my trade on it, will see if what I think about a trend reversal on it and the green candles I’m looking works. There is also a risk that this is only a false move from the current consolidation (short term) channel.[/li][li]GBPAUD bias long. It is working nicer than GBPNZD because the aussie is weaker than the kiwi. Nevertheless, I think both trades are going to work well because I think the pound and the cable are fundamentally weaker than the aussie and kiwi.[/li][li]CADCHF bias short. I just sold it. The two red candles before it are very nice looking, well, yesterday’s is not too nice, but it’s body is big enough to show that bears are under control for now.[/li][li]GBPCHF bias long. The price is currently on the 38.2 % retracement, and on a previous resistance. Also it is on my middle line of the uptrend channel and previous candle is an inverted hammer, that could transform to a morning star or something like that. I’m going to place a buy if current candle closes above previous day’s high, at 1.45.[/li][li]EURAUD bias long. My buy was just triggered and it is now on profit. There is some risk on this trade because the price has yet to close above 1.2908, that is the previous trend line that has broken. It could bounce there and reverse down and transform in a downtrend, but looking at current longer term price action, I see HH and HL, inside a big up channel. That gives me a lot of confidence on the trade![/li][li]EURGBP bias short. It is holding below the previous high and also below my stop. I think current PA is good enough for a short.[/li][li]USDCAD bias short. I’m little scare on this pair. Previous day is a ugly green candle showing balance. Balance is not what I want to see hehehe, I want to see lot of bears eating bulls, so I’m adjusting my stop to previous resistance, just in case this candle transforms to a bullish channel bounce.[/li][li]GBPUSD bias long, trade is working as expected. Currently bouncing on my up channel upper line.[/li][li]AUDNZD bias short. The support is about to be broken. Bad results on the aussie is making it weaker than the kiwi (as I said before) and current candle seems really bearish! Nothing to change on the pair for the moment.[/li][li]EURNZD bias long. The price is currently on a resistance. Let’s see if it makes it and becomes a good long.[/li][li]USDCHF bias short. It is doing very well, but now is on a support. I expect some problems here. If I see a candle pattern that shows a reversal, I’m going to move my stop.[/li][li]EURUSD bias long. Previous day was a pinbar, on a resistance. I’m going to lock some profit on it because it could very well reverse and let me out without anything. I’m locking about 45 pips on it.[/li][li]GOLD bias short. Well, it made a evening star pattern, on a resistance level, that is also the 61.8 % retracement, I see enough reasons to place a order on close below 1448 with 2 % risk. This is the first time I trade gold with PA; previously I traded it with buy & hold, so this is going to be an experiment for me! hope it results in a shiny and golden experience![/li][/ul]

Current floating profit is greater than yesterday, both in pips and money, and that makes me happy hehehe, and makes me thank MG99 for this great thread.

I’m going to continue trading this way for 2-3 months, but someone told me that one should double their account in 20-30 winning trades, and I think that this technique with it’s simple approach and with the easy MM is going to give trades that wins 5 % or more each one. Also, there is enough fun on it for me, and also too little time to invest so it is a prefect balance for full time working people like me.

Today’s analysis!! lets see what I’m looking today.

Analysis Started at 16:06—

[ul]
[li]NZDJPY bias long. Price didn’t touched my stop, that’s great :slight_smile: from now, the price is in better place than yesterday, it made a tweezer bottom halting the down move just at the same price, strong support, isn’t it? well, we will see soon![/li][li]AUDJPY bias long. My stop is holding! the candle pattern is a very nice spinner that shows strong support, but I can’t say victory yet.[/li][li]USDJPY bias long. Previous day finished green, and made the morning star pattern. It is a cute signal for me, because is turning my trade on the pair to the green side![/li][li]CADJPY bias long, seems to be working my way, the same as other yen pairs. Support is holding.[/li][li]GBPJPY bias long, this is nice, if today’s close is above 152.6 I will buy tomorrow :)[/li][li]NZDCAD bias long. Current price pattern is a nice pinbar on a support. What say, is a VERY nice pinbar :slight_smile: well defined, green candle. That invites me to not doing anything yet.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias short, but previous day sends a warning signal. Very well defined and very long lower wick pinbar that penetrated 2 supports but was rejected. I’m going to move my stop right now! 10 pips above previous day high at 1.0375 locking +140 pips![/li][li]AUDCHF bias short, but previous day shown a yikes candle (like pinbar but with big real body). Normally I would wait for another candle to move my stop here, because the current candle is not on a support for me, but because correlation with other AUD pairs, is better to lock profits here also. +64 pips locked.[/li][li]GBPCAD bias long. Waiting for the entry.[/li][li]NZDUSD bias long. It was stopped out for a -6.8 pip loss, previous day made a nice pinbar on a support. This is difficult for me right now. The market made a LH and that could be a simple correction, but also a trend reversal. Well, I think I should wait until today’s close to see what happens. Maybe the correlation between various kiwi pairs will help me, let’s continue.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias long. Market made a nice pattern, don’t remember how it is called, but could be a tweezer. It signals a strong reversal, so I’m buying right now on the pair.[/li][li]GBPNZD bias long. Previous candle doesn’t seems appealing, and I’m tempted to move my stop. I think I’m going to move it. I should note that my entry could be better at 1.8372 that was a previous high and highest of the current consolidation range.[/li][li]GBPAUD bias long, but just made a pinbar on a support. I’m going to move my stop 10 pips below. That is locking +220 pips.[/li][li]CADCHF bias short, made a big green candle but the candle is a bearish one for me, so I’m not moving anything.[/li][li]GBPCHF bias long, just placed my buy.[/li][li]EURAUD bias long, I’m holding without any move here.[/li][li]EURGBP bias short. It managed to made the evening star pattern (or 3 inside down), closed below previous support and that’s great, i think it is still a valid short.[/li][li]USDCAD bias short. It made a lower low and is now reversing. I have my stop just above a resistance because I “fear” that my short entry is wrong and that my bias should be long. This is because the pair is very near to a support that couldn’t be broken. I think tomorrow I will know for sure if this is a long or a short.[/li][li]GBPUSD bias long. The trade is working as expected, nothing to change.[/li][li]AUDNZD bias long. The pair managed to made a new LL and closed low, good news for my short that continues growing.[/li][li]EURNZD bias long. It seems like a lower TF channel breakout followed by a retracement to the breakout point. Will see in a couple days. Not moving anything.[/li][li]USDCHF bias short. As stated yesterday, I’m moving my stop because I see a reversal pattern. This locks about +73 pips.[/li][li]EURUSD bias long. It was stopped out for a +47.8 pip profit. Waiting for a reversal pattern to decide to enter it again or not.[/li][li]EURCAD bias long It made a nice yikes candle near a support. I’m going to move my entry point to a nearer place on close.[/li][li]GOLD bias short. waiting for it to make its move.[/li][/ul]

— end analysis at 16:54

Now, based on correlation to decide the future of the kiwi.

This pairs are long: NZDJPY, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, EURNZD
This others are short: GBPNZD with doubt, AUDNZD

The USD pairs are long also, showing weak USD, I think I should place a buy on close above previous candle high because the kiwi is showing strength, so that is the change I’m going to do.

By the way, today’s lot size calculation is 30 % greater than what it was when I started trading this methodology. That speaks that my equity is growing and is currently 30 % above in this little time, very nice, I think!

Nice work. There are more readers than posters on this thread. I am certain there are those that appreciate your detailed analysis.

Yeah Medisoft is doing a good job, a lot of people have taken your method and made it their own in different ways. MG I thought you had left these forums?

Thank you for your words! It is good to know that my work is helping others.

This is the analysis for today… well, I’m making it on Saturday, but is the same hehehe, market is closed.

[ul]
[li]NZDJPY bias long, nice green candle at close. It made a HL, encouraging me to continue without moving anything.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias long, also nice candle and a HL. It seems better than NZDJPY because my next resistance is farther. Not moving my stop.[/li][li]USDJPY bias long, made a HL but the next resistance could be the third test of that level, that poses some risk, but I’m not moving my stop yet because one thing is what I think and other what charts are showing.[/li][li]AUDUSD bias long. It made a double top, with two bounces on the same level, so I think it could be a buy if next candle closes green.[/li][li]CADJPY same as USDJPY.[/li][li]GBPJPY bias long. It closed above my entry, so on market open on Sunday, I will buy it.[/li][li]NZDCAD bias long. Conflicting candle signals. I need another signal to know what to do.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias change to long. Nice morning star pattern on a support! I’m going to buy on Sunday open. It is supposed that I should wait until another candle, but I’m looking a confirmation from the double top pattern. That is, the double top patterns seems to make a move of same pips from the neck to the top and from the neck to the bottom. Current low is the bottom and is almost the same 200 pips that the neck-top part made, so that is enough confirmation for me.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias change to long. It was stopped out for a +63.9 pip profit. I’m setting up my buy on Sunday open.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias long. The trade started very well as you can see on my open trades. Also, the correlation between this pair and AUDCHF make me think they are right in the track on the long side.[/li][li]GBPNZD bias long. It was stopped out for a -67 pip loss. I’m going to wait for a new entry signal.[/li][li]GBPAUD bias long. It was stopped out for a +222 pip profit. The candle at resistance managed to give a good true signal, and got me out almost on the top. I’m looking for a new entry point.[/li][li]CADCHF bias short. It is testing the resistance again. Next week I will see if my trade is good or not. If not, as always, I’m going to move my stop.[/li][li]GBPCHF bias long. My entry seems OK, and the trade moved my way from the beginning. Will see this week if it continue my way.[/li][li]EURJPY bias long. It is enclosed by a range, as much I want to trade it, I need to wait until it break and close the range. I’m waiting and holding my entry point at 131.42[/li][li]CHFJPY bias long. It is also enclosed in a range. What I’m noticing is that they both made a higher low. That could help me to know that the breakout (the real one) will occur on the long side, but until that happens, I’m waiting.[/li][li]EURAUD bias long. My entry didn’t work from the beginning. It is making a small retracement at the 61.8 % from current small swing. I’m still confident on the trade, so I’m not moving my stop.[/li][li]EURGBP bias short. It is moving my way (barely!) but made a lower high, and that inspires me confidence on the trade. My current stop is pretty small, so I’m not moving anything.[/li][li]GBPUSD bias long. It is managing to stay above my entry, and previous candle close was above a lot of closes before, that shows me that the pound is strong enough to continue and not doing anything to my stop.[/li][li]AUDNZD bias short. It made another candlestick that causes me to think it is time to move again my stop. I’m locking now +288 pip profit on the pair.[/li][li]EURNZD bias long. Current candle shows that there is enough support at this point. There is some risk that the sellers win this battle and the price drops, but current pattern is bullish for me. If next candle is green and big, this pattern could make a morning star, and that would reinforce my buy and my bias.[/li][li]USDCHF bias short. It was stopped out for a +73.8 pip profit. Current candle is a very nice spinning top / doji, it is located on a support / resistance level. I’m setting up a new short on it if it closes below 0.9339[/li][li]EURCAD bias long. Waiting for my entry.[/li][li]NZDUSD bias long. Price closed above my entry, so on Sunday open I will buy it.[/li][li]EURUSD bias long. Price managed to hold on a support and bounced on it. I will buy on Sunday opening again, I hope at the same or better place than previous trade.[/li][li]USDCAD bias long. Price is holding above my support / trend line. Waiting for it to close above my entry.[/li][li]GOLD bias short. It seems enclosed by a range. Will see if it manage to break it this week.[/li][/ul]

So far, it seems that the Yen is the weakest, the Loonie is also weak, at least weaker than the Buck, and this latest is also weaker vs majors. The pound is stronger than the fiber but both are strong enough to be on right up trend.

The following article was screen-captured from the May 2013 issue of [I]Currency Trader[/I] magazine.

This article examines a forex portfolio strategy which is similar in many respects to the methodology that we are using in this thread. The portfolio strategy detailed in the article has generated impressive positive results, and the article clearly validates the basic forex portfolio concept.

Here are some of the similarities and some of the differences between the strategy in the article (which I am calling the [I]Currency Trade[/I]r strategy) and mastergunner’s methodology (which I am calling the [I]MG Portfolio Strategy[/I]):

[U]The obvious similarities[/U]

Both strategies utilize a fixed set of trend-following rules to trigger entries and exits in multiple currency pairs.

Both strategies rely only on price action for signals, and neither strategy employs any sort of optimization techniques.

Both strategies achieve portfolio diversification, such that each portfolio exhibits less drawdown and lower volatility than its individual currency pairs exhibit.

In both strategies, portfolio ROI exceeds the sum of the ROI’s of the individual pairs, over the long term.

[U]The obvious differences[/U]

The [I]Currency Trader[/I] strategy employs relatively complex entry/exit rules based on the most recent 8 days of price action, and these rules are executed by algorithms. The [I]MG Portfolio Strategy[/I] employs discretionary trading, with rules defined by each individual trader, and entries and exits are manually executed with market orders, limit orders or stop orders.

The [I]Currency Trader[/I] strategy uses a portfolio of 3 pairs, but envisions expanding the scope to include a large basket of currency pairs and (possibly) also other financial instruments. The [I]MG Portfolio Strategy[/I] uses 28 currency pairs.

The [I]Currency Trader[/I] strategy is an “always in” strategy; that is, there is always either a long or short open position in each of the 3 pairs; a long exit automatically triggers a short entry, and vice versa. The [I]MG Portfolio Strategy[/I] (as most participants on this thread seem to be trading it) allows for exiting a position without reversing the position.

The [I]Currency Trader[/I] strategy establishes position sizes based on the 20-day ATR. The [I]MG Portfolio Strategy[/I] establishes position sizes based upon account equity at the time of entry.


I had to resort to 8 separate screen-shots in order to capture the 4-page [I]Currency Trader[/I] article. Babypips allows only 4 images per post, so the article had to be divided into two parts. It appears in the following two posts.[I][/I]

.




— continued in the next post —

— continued from the previous post —




Hi!

This is my analysis for today :slight_smile:

Today I have lots of negative trades, while the total pip value is positive, the net cash value is negative because first trades are very small, as you can see here.

[ul]
[li]NZDJPY bias long. Closed at the previous resistance. That is a little scary! The candle is a small doji. I think I’m going to analyze other yen pairs to decide if move my stop or not.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias long. Closed down but the signals are not enough to make me move my stop[/li][li]USDJPY bias long. Closed green, opened with a gap up, not made any bearish pattern, but it is on a strong resistance, the 100 level. Not moving my stop.[/li][li]AUDUSD bias long. I made a typo on previous post, what it made is a double BOTTOM, not top.[/li][li]CADJPY bias long, the same as USDJPY. I want to see a break above the 100 level on USDJPY and above 99 level on CADJPY. If it makes it, I think the trade will go my way fast and furious.[/li][li]GBPJPY bias long, I placed a trade on Sunday’s open. Made a new high, thats good for me. It is far from the next resistance and it is above previous resistance, now support, it should be tested once or twice to declare a winning support.[/li][li]NZDCAD bias long. is wondering where to go. Meanwhile the price is flirting with the S/R, the trend line is approaching. I think that, if the uptrend stays, in a couple of days the price will be near enough to the trend line to be rejected and make it’s way up.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias long. Made a big drop yesterday, but has not been below the low of the pinbar that triggered my entry decision. Holding my stop where it is now.[/li][li]GBPCAD bias long. it is making what I see as a head and shoulders pattern, it s short term one, but enough to drop about 150 pips. My entry has not been triggered, so I don’t worry about it.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias long. Previous candle is inside / bearish harami, but for me it is not in a resistance, so it is not very meaning and I’m not moving my stop.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias long. It is showing some resistance but it managed to close above the level. It is hard to see what is going to happen next, but the current market structure shows higher low after a higher high, so this could be a continuation. Not changing anything.[/li][li]GBPNZD is becoming more and more attractive for long bias. I’m going to place my entry on close above previous resistance at 1.8372.[/li][li]GBPAUD bias long. Placing an entry order at 1.5168[/li][li]CADCHF bias short. Current price has been trending up for 3 days, so I’m feeling that this could be a reversal. I’m moving my stop barely above previous strong resistance level, adding at much 22 pips more risk.[/li][li]GBPCHF bias long. Any signal here.[/li][li]EURJPY,CHFJPY bias long. Waiting for my entry.[/li][li]EURAUD bias long. made a higher low, waiting to see if it can do a higher high![/li][li]EURGBP bias short. Strong support found. I need a break below current support![/li][li]GBPUSD bias long. Support is holding. It could be making a H&S pattern in 1H/4H time frame with a target of 60 pips to 1.5460, that is a good level of support. Will see, not doing anything.[/li][li]AUDNZD bias short. continued down! It is a pity that this beautiful trade has too little volume for me :frowning: well, waiting to see what happens next, it made a new lower low, so I continue with my short here[/li][li]EURNZD bias long. It is showing some support at this level, will see in some days, maybe 2 or 3.[/li][li]USDCHF bias short. In a retracement. I have an entry on close below 0.9939.[/li][li]EURCAD bias long. I’m going to buy it at 1.3235[/li][li]NZDUSD bias long. Waiting to see if it follows my idea or reject it.[/li][li]USDCAD bias… maybe long. Waiting for clearer signal. It is holding on the support, and very well could be bouncing on it to continue the previous uptrend, or maybe only bounce to a new lower high, only time will tell.[/li][li]EURUSD bias long. It is on the bottom of it’s channel and it could be in the process of making a cypher harmonic pattern (ignore this if you don’t know about harmonics! I’m only trying to incorporate harmonic trading to price action). It is also on a lower time frame up trend line, if it closes below that line, it could drop up to 1.29, before bouncing, or it could be worse and become a bear trend.[/li][li]GOLD bias short. Currently in a range that has not been broken yet.[/li][/ul]

Based on correlation with other pairs, and with news for the AUD I think I’m going to stay where I am on NZDJPY. If the trade balance news from the AUD is good enough it could move the aussie up, and could make the yen down and the kiwi stay where it is. If the news are bad, the aussie could drop, pushing yen up and dragging the kiwi down, but only a little. The market expects a better value than previous report. Will see in a couple hours.

See you!

Interesting find. I will sit down sometime this week for a read.

Just making sure I’m subscribed to this goldfield of knowledge.

Hey mastergunner this is pretty off topic but i have a question and i remember you talking about it. Anyone else who knows is free to chime in.

So at some point in the future I’d like to be a CTA. Which licenses does that require? I’ve been reading and to me it looks like I just need a series 3 to handle commodities and a series 7 for stocks. So I obtain one or both of those and then I register with the CFTC and I’m able to give trading advice. To handle clients money I have to register with both the CFTC and the NFA?

Are there any good study materials available? Books you would recommend I could read or maybe sample tests? I’ve googled already and found some but it seems ripe with scams I’m just being cautious.

medisoft seems to be missing for a number of days…

How do you guys determine the daily bias, on what timeframes ? It sounds so easy for you guys ? Entry and exit signals ? I know they are price action based, but do you look at lower timeframes to exit ?

Sorry! I had lot of work and also this Friday was mother’s day, so I was busy with my wife, but I’m here again.

I’m opening a new live account where I trade only with this methodology, and I just added to myfxbook. Do you think it would be useful to post the link here?

MG99 says in this thread that he looks only to daily time frame. I do also the same.

And it is easier the entry and exit signals than the to define the right bias. Bias is the tricky part of this methodology.

What I do to define my bias is to try to find a nice LRC (linear regression channel) that fits well on a big number of days, with 2 or more lows and highs respecting the limits of the LRC. If I can find a channel like that, I use it as my bias.

I confirm that with correlation with other pairs and in less importance, with every country economic outlook.

Are you a salesman?

Becoming a CTA is one thing, developing a book of business is something else entirely.

Prospecting and promotion is such of extreme importance that I have employed someone in my practice to focus solely on new client acquisition.

I personally am not a CTA as my career path has me in a different direction professionally, but the parallels of generating business are similar.

But to answer your question, you will likely need to spend money on study materials to prepare for both tests. Everyone has a different style of learning. I have studied both with online classes, self study courses, and accelerated live learning courses.

[QUOTE=“mastergunner99;488457”]

Are you a salesman?

Becoming a CTA is one thing, developing a book of business is something else entirely.

Prospecting and promotion is such of extreme importance that I have employed someone in my practice to focus solely on new client acquisition.

I personally am not a CTA as my career path has me in a different direction professionally, but the parallels of generating business are similar.

But to answer your question, you will likely need to spend money on study materials to prepare for both tests. Everyone has a different style of learning. I have studied both with online classes, self study courses, and accelerated live learning courses.[/QUOTE]

Anything you recommend? That’s what I was wanting. I couldn’t find many reviews for stuff online. I found stuff but I couldn’t make heads or tails if it was gonna help. One book I saw was Kaplan $80 it’s has mock questions in it also.

Hi Medisoft

Yes I think it would be useful as I am not always confident that I am interpreting what is said correctly.

For example; in your postings you have AUDUSD as long, but on my D1 chart I see it as being short since 14th April. Seeing the chart you are looking at would certainly help in situations like this.

Thanks
Kiwiman

There’s nothing specific I would recommend for studying as I’m not picking up a CTA designation. Just about anything out there is probably worth something.

I would however recommend you read books on how to build a finances practice. Having the knowledge is the easy part. Developing your book of business is something else entirely.

Having a website and facebook page and shoeing off results isn’t enough. It requires countless phone calls, guerrilla marketing tactics, seminars, conferences, networking.

Also, being a CTA will not make you a better trader. And that’s an entirely different issue on its own.

Develop yourself there if you want to go on your own.