Price action of xau/usd (gold)
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  1. #1
    Wibie G's Avatar
    Wibie G is offline Junior Member
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    Lightbulb Price action of xau/usd (gold)

    PRICE ACTION OF XAU/USD (GOLD)

    Hi Gold Traders,

    It's Wibie_G here. I’m an independent trader XAU/USD (Gold). I start this humble thread to journal my technical commentaries on Price Action (PA) of the pair in D1 Timeframe. The PA discussed in this thread mainly refers to Price Level, Price Direction, Price Reversal, and Price Target.

    My analysis method will be simple and objective enough. I expect any traders ought to easily understand it. To visually explain my points, I’ll upload print screens of my charts too.

    The validity and the success rate of my method has been continuously tested and improved in these past 3 years. I have strong confident in it. As this is a journal thread—not a trading-system one, I won’t specifically discuss about the method. It’ll be discussed in my commentaries on market conditions as they happen.

    What I will post here:
    • My Commentary on PA near Support/Resistance (S/R) at D1 Timeframe.
    • The S/R I look at are: Key Horizontal Levels and Key Trend Lines.
    • The Key Horizontal Levels I look at are: Monthly Pivot Level, Weekly Pivot Level, Previous S/R Level.
    • The Key Trend Lines I look at are: EMA 20 days (Short-term Trend), SMA 50 days (Mid-term Trend), SMA 200 days (Long-term Trend)
    • My Expectations of Trend Reversals and Targets and their Factual Results.
    • A typical Expectations looks like this: “If X1 happens, then X2 would likely to happen. If Z1 happens, then Z2 would likely to happen.”
    • I will also post whether the Expectations eventually got realized or not (yet). Let’s learn together from them.
    • I won't hesitate to retract my previous Expectations if I see a good reason to do so, in light of various reasons related to market or commentaries by others.
    • If appropriate, I will also discuss in my commentaries Key Fundamental Factors and their potential implications to PA.


    What I will not discuss here:
    • Specific Levels of Open Position, Stop Loss, Take Profit.
    • I won’t respond to query related to those levels either.


    Posting Frequency:
    • The frequency of my posts will be intermittent. It'll depend on when a certain PA occurs as mentioned above.
    • If you find this thread adding value to your trading, I suggest you to subscribe to it so you’ll be reminded via email when its latest post appears.


    Posting Manners:
    • Please fully comply with Forum’s Guidance on Posting Ethics as ruled here.
    • I welcome and respect Different Opinions, but I can speak for everyone that we cherish Courteous Attitude even more; much more.
    • We all know trading is hard, so let’s make this thread pleasant for everyone. Please avoid the use of condescending tones at all times.
    • Please share your opinion in a way that’ll constructively complement to this thread’s contents.
    • If you have a different method of market reading than mine, it is okay to share it in this thread once or twice. After that, however, please refrain yourself from forcing your way of thinking here. Let’s leave it at that. If you really wish others to gain insights from your views, opening your own thread on the same is the best way to do it.



    DISCLAIMER:
    This thread is for educational purposes only. My posts in this thread are not advices or suggestions for anyone to take trading positions in live accounts. I will not respond to queries regarding the same. Hence, I cannot be held accountable for your trading profits or losses if you use my commentaries as base for your trades.
    A trader's ONLY OBJECTIVE is to TRADE her/his RULES.

    In the strictest sense, a trader cannot trade the market. She/he could only trade her/his Rules. So never worry about 'Missing the Boat' or missing every Big Market Move, because no one can anyway!
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  2. #2
    Wibie G's Avatar
    Wibie G is offline Junior Member
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    What to expect for next month:

    Will Typical Price Action around SMA-50 days rhyme again for GOLD next November '14?

    Name:  XAUUSDDaily-D1 Price Action around SMA-50.jpg
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    A trader's ONLY OBJECTIVE is to TRADE her/his RULES.

    In the strictest sense, a trader cannot trade the market. She/he could only trade her/his Rules. So never worry about 'Missing the Boat' or missing every Big Market Move, because no one can anyway!
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  3. #3
    swingsignals is offline Newbie
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    Default Gold is going down

    Quote Originally Posted by Wibie G View Post
    What to expect for next month:

    Will Typical Price Action around SMA-50 days rhyme again for GOLD next November '14?

    Name:  XAUUSDDaily-D1 Price Action around SMA-50.jpg
Views: 205
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    Well, so far we are in a down trend with a targhet of 1211 today or lower in the next days. Once this is completed, we'll definitely have a big up trend just like the last 2 times when that low of 1183 was hit.

    Keep this in mind.

  4. #4
    Wibie G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swingsignals View Post
    Well, so far we are in a down trend with a target of 1211 today or lower in the next days. Once this is completed, we'll definitely have a big up trend just like the last 2 times when that low of 1183 was hit.

    Keep this in mind.
    Hi swingsignals,

    No one have to keep in mind about anything anyone says, Sir. Price will go to whatever direction it wants to go. We traders can only predict.

    Btw, Gold Price just fell to lowest level in past 4 years to level of $1167. Descending trend may still continue.

    Name:  XAUUSDDaily.jpg
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    Have a nice weekend, all..

    Cheers..
    A trader's ONLY OBJECTIVE is to TRADE her/his RULES.

    In the strictest sense, a trader cannot trade the market. She/he could only trade her/his Rules. So never worry about 'Missing the Boat' or missing every Big Market Move, because no one can anyway!
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  5. #5
    Wibie G's Avatar
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    Default What's fundamental reasoning of Gold's fall?

    Gold fell to never seen before level since 2010 at $1161 breaking a long held support of $1183, and closed at $1173 this week.

    Because this is such a historical milestone for the metal, I think it's fair to seek some fundamental explanations. One of the news that has been spread by main stream media is the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s surprising quantitative-easing policy. Here's the quote I took from WSJ and the link to its complete article:

    The Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced it would boost its bond purchases to ¥80 trillion from the previous target range of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion. The central bank hopes to spur business activity and inflation by purchasing more Japanese government bonds.

    In response, gold prices plunged while the dollar neared a seven-year high against the yen and advanced to a two-year high against the euro. Gold prices are benchmarked in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers who fund their purchases with other currencies, limiting their pull in the market.


    Read more.
    A trader's ONLY OBJECTIVE is to TRADE her/his RULES.

    In the strictest sense, a trader cannot trade the market. She/he could only trade her/his Rules. So never worry about 'Missing the Boat' or missing every Big Market Move, because no one can anyway!
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  6. #6
    Wibie G's Avatar
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    BREAKING:

    GOLD just broke its latest support of $1161.
    Next Support is at $1086.

    Name:  XAUUSDDaily.jpg
Views: 111
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    A trader's ONLY OBJECTIVE is to TRADE her/his RULES.

    In the strictest sense, a trader cannot trade the market. She/he could only trade her/his Rules. So never worry about 'Missing the Boat' or missing every Big Market Move, because no one can anyway!
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

  7. #7
    PipSafe is offline Newbie
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    Gold had a strong and without reformation descending trend during the recent weeks and could record the bottom price of 1132.099 .According to the strong downfall of price from the top price of 1344.995, it seems that the price is saturation sell area and there is the possibility of price reformation.In weekly time frame with the types of price movements in previous week, hammer candle stick pattern has appeared that warns the formation of a bottom price and the failure of sellers in reaching to the lower prices.

    As it is obvious in the picture below, there is butterfly harmonic pattern between the top price of 1433.090 and the bottom price of 1132.099 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern.Generally according to the recent strong descending trend until the bottom price of 1132.099 is preserved, there is the potential for price reformation in this chart.



  8. #8
    Wibie G's Avatar
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    Yesterday, XAUUSD was resisted by its Monthly Pivot of $1195, but is still supported by Weekly Pivot of $1176.
    The metal may prepare to dive again.

    Name:  XAUUSDDaily.jpg
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    A trader's ONLY OBJECTIVE is to TRADE her/his RULES.

    In the strictest sense, a trader cannot trade the market. She/he could only trade her/his Rules. So never worry about 'Missing the Boat' or missing every Big Market Move, because no one can anyway!
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

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