Fib Retracement Trading...

[tonymand]

Although the GY H1 was up last night and it was legitimate to look for a long it is worth thinking about the higher timeframes. While the 4H is up within the intermediate frame the longer frame is down. If this is confusing you need to read Dow theory which shows 3 trends on each timeframe. Using this info you can see that in the longest frame the 4H reaches the 78.6 area. At the same time the 15M reaches the 78.6 in its frame and gives a reversal signal and off we go!

[didjerdu]

Originally Posted by emmanolulola

pls house,
i am new to forex trading and when i started trading i opened with marketiva but her server has not been always encouraging.Pls;
1. what other platforms do you recommend with a good server?
2.who do they refer to as buyers and sellers on the candlestick chart?
3.can one determine what will happen in the next candlestick chart (period) on the current one?
4.how do one knows if the buying or selling pressure is imminent?
hope to hear from you guys soonest.Thanks
ALL THE BEST

Hi emmanolulola
I use interbankfx (interbankfx.com) and the MT4 platform. It's pretty easy but requires a lot of reading and homework if you want to make the most of it. I don't understand your question #2. # 3 I don't get either. No one can really determine what will happen next unless you have a crystal ball. But as to #4, there are no real "volumes" like the equity market to gauge:however,
I look for a breakout either to the up or downside with lots of volume which usually can be determined by quick activity of buying and selling. This usually occurs during the most optimal London or New York trading hours. Never buy on the first candle when this occurs. Wait for a second candle to appear when all the buyers have settled down. I usually do this on a 5 minute chart, but will refer to a 15 as well.
Very best.
S.

[Sweet Pip]

Originally Posted by tonymand

Using this info you can see that in the longest frame the 4H reaches the 78.6 area. At the same time the 1H reaches the 78.6 in its frame and gives a reversal signal and off we go!

Thats a good example tonymand

Sorry, but just to clarify, you said the 1H reaches the 78.6 but your attached chart shows the 15M as reaching the 78.6...I'm at work and can't confirm what the 1H shows, but is that what you meant to say?

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip

Thats a good example tonymand

Sorry, but just to clarify, you said the 1H reaches the 78.6 but your attached chart shows the 15M as reaching the 78.6...I'm at work and can't confirm what the 1H shows, but is that what you meant to say?

Thanks Sweetpip - I have corrected this to 15M which is what I meant to say

[hypnos63]

hi daedulus

please tell me how to recognize 'tops' for fib retracement trades?

i keep missing the 'top' if you knoiw what i mean.

thanks

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by hypnos63

hi daedulus

please tell me how to recognize 'tops' for fib retracement trades?

i keep missing the 'top' if you knoiw what i mean.

thanks

I'm sorry, but can you clarify that? Like the top or bottom of a swing, or where to measure the grids from?

[hypnos63]

Originally Posted by daedalus

I'm sorry, but can you clarify that? Like the top or bottom of a swing, or where to measure the grids from?

yes exactly the top or bottom of a swing.

how does one know? because on the 15 chart the retrace starts and is over very quickly.

thanks

hypnos 63

[hypnos63]

Originally Posted by daedalus

I'm sorry, but can you clarify that? Like the top or bottom of a swing, or where to measure the grids from?

yes thats right daedulus, can you tell me howto do that please?

appreciate it.

hypnos63

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by hypnos63

yes exactly the top or bottom of a swing.

how does one know? because on the 15 chart the retrace starts and is over very quickly.

thanks

hypnos 63

Ok, so i'm reading this as you want to know how to gauge if the pullback is at the bottom of its retracement so you don't get in to early, etc.?

If thats the case heres the honest answer: You don't. I mean, we can do certain things to increase the odds of us catching the bottom of a move, but at the end of the day its very possible that we are going to get into a move that doesn't stop and comes back to stop us out. But here are some things you can do to try and decrease this possibility.

1: Wait for a stochastic cross... simple, stupid, and you'll give up some profit, but at the same time it SHOULD (not every time obviously) decrease the odds of you catching a falling knife. Remember here, we want adherence to grid values first and foremost to prove to us that price action is indeed respecting our grid pattern. If you don't see candle closes respecting levels chances are price action doesn't think your grid is the dominant one it wants to respect.

2: Wait for some type of reversal candle pattern. At the very least I wait to see at least one candle close in the opposite direction of the pullback. I.e. if i'm trying to short a pullback and i have green positive candles coming up to my grid, i will wait for adherence at the grid, and then a red or down candle to close before i'll enter the trade. This can also eat into potential profits, but will decrease the chances of you again catching a falling knife.

3: You need to come to terms with the fact that this is a pullback method, not a breakout method, and by definition 9 times out of 10 you're going to take heat on a position. Thats just the name of this game. The trick is to get in at a fairly good level of a pullback and set protective stops outside of the grids should we be wrong.

Hope this helps to answer your question!

Cheers!

[hypnos63]

hi daedulus

thanks for the reply.

by 'top' i mean the top or end of a swing, and 'bottom' i mean the lowest point of a trend/swing.

i have attached a copy of USDCHF today and you can see the 1330 GMT candle and the 1500 GMT candle broke the 10952 price line the 1330 gmt break pulled back from my 23% fib to my 50 % fib but there was no way fro me to know whne it was going to do that. 20-20 hindsight lets me know the 1330 gmt candle was a 'top' or swing high, but i couldn't tell. there is a doji cross just before the 1330 candle but that is not a consistent clue either.

however, at the next candle 1400 gmt, there is the stochastic cross you mention, but again, that looks good in hindsight, when the actual trade is in play, it is uncertain whether that stochastic cross will hold to the close of the candle.

so lets say we wait till the open of the 3rd candle after the 'top', in this case the 1430 gmt candle, this opened at 10938 and moves a further 10 pips only before reversing @ my 200 EMA.

my problem is if i use your stochastic cross suggestion, what should be my profit target? 10 pips , 20 pips ?

i have included a link to my chart in case you don't get the images attached to my reply here
http://md5.it-finance.com/MDV6/showi...852523&print=1