Fib Retracement Trading...

[vicebet]

Through my view, fibonacci pricing for S/R is set for brokers as future charts for potential manupulation..

Why? The explanation is general at the same time it is raw and not precise..
However, I've always believed that the more the thing is known and used ..the more it dont work...

So basicly whats is in all forums are well known.. so it dont work conceptly...It doesnt mean that it wont bring profits... but whether you're in TANK or on a BIKE... you decide...

There is HOLY GRAILS existence... if not there will be no Warren Buffets...
The holy grail is knowing the future because you know.. and not knowing future because the tools say so...

How to know the future because you know ? The present and the future is right on the charts.. see and think like a creator.. and not like a librarian...open your mind... embrace the beauty.. open your arms.. and trade with sharpness yet be humble... sooner or later you will discover whats for you...

[kagein]

Ok. im just going over my journal and most times i dont get filled at the 61.8 line. i get filled between the 61.8 level and the 50% level. Let say for simplicity i i get filled at the 50% level and place my at the 87% level. My profit target is the 23.6% level, so R:R=(50-23.6)/(87-50)= 0.7. if i get filled at the 61.8% level my R:R= 1.5.

Should i always use limit orders to make sure that i get filled at the right price. hence having an acceptable R:R??

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by kagein

Ok. im just going over my journal and most times i dont get filled at the 61.8 line. i get filled between the 61.8 level and the 50% level. Let say for simplicity i i get filled at the 50% level and place my at the 87% level. My profit target is the 23.6% level, so R:R=(50-23.6)/(87-50)= 0.7. if i get filled at the 61.8% level my R:R= 1.5.

Should i always use limit orders to make sure that i get filled at the right price. hence having an acceptable R:R??

Thats why we don't take entries that the 50% level. I have another grid on my charts at the 56% level... If I can't get into a move at or below the 56% its not worth it. Ideally though I try and enter as close to the 62 (or 75, 87 depending on what grid i'm playing) as possible. If you have any issues, put limit orders for the 61.8 values if you want strict adherence to Risk:Reward. Thats why on the shallow pullbacks i've been advocating entering with limit orders at that precise level.

You bring up a valid point and one that should be addressed. If the move blows away, let it go. From a risk standpoint its not worth chasing it. More often than not though you can get in at or a pip or two above the 61.8 level. When in doubt do that, you'll miss a few moves here and there but you won't have to worry about your risk being out of proportion.

Cheers!

[Trade It]

Just wanting to post another example. Would the red arrow have been a good entry? Entering at the 75% level. Just trying to understand all the setups more. Thanks all

[daedalus]

No. Look at your bias lines... you are in a strong uptrend... why are we trying to sell this?

We should be trying to buy the pullbacks all the way up the chart.

I've attached 3 setups of that chart that I would've taken. As you can see price action is currently in a shallow pullback long entry with your stop at breakeven.

I draw my grids up to two swings back and see where price action respects them.

But I can't stress this enough... DO NOT TRADE AGAINST THE TREND. That is RULE #1.

[Trade It]

Thanks daedalus for the clarification.

[tonymand]

Well like all things it depends on your timeframe and perspective. The trend on the 4H is arguable but I would say is clearly ranging. The flow is likely to be short again at this level until the resistance breaks. The H1 is now in a head and shoulders pattern so again a short play is on. On both frames we are in the 78.6 retrace area so this looks powerful. I am awaiting on a reversal signal on the 15 min for a short entry here this morning

[Sweet Pip]

It's so easy to see that now...thanks tonymand ...hopefully it will adhere.

It's so hard in the beginning to identify all those patterns...double/triple tops/bottoms...large corrections!

Think I'll give myself a little homework and go back through various charts and try to pick them out.

[kagein]

Lets say a pair tests the 61.8 level but retraces below the 50% level. in such a case would using the shallow pullback method be appropriate?

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by kagein

Lets say a pair tests the 61.8 level but retraces below the 50% level. in such a case would using the shallow pullback method be appropriate?

For my rules, no. There is a gray area on the charts between 50 and 61.8, personally I look for one or the other. And as always, when its ambiguous go somewhere else. There are more than enough solid, quality, simple to see setups from one day to another on some time frame, on some pair... why risk it?

Remember, as traders we are predisposed to getting bored and jumping into positions because we feel we "need" to be in something or were not being productive - even if the setup isn't that great. We are actually paid to sit there and do nothing most of the time.

Being flat is more important than being long or short!