The Forex Portfolio - How to Gain Consistent Profits by Staying in the Market 24/7

Mike & Bonovest, glad to see you here. I’m subscribed and will follow along & probably ask too many questions. :wink:

I need to set up a MyFxBook too. That looks interesting & helpful.

(I need to figure out how to free up some memory on my puter too, the darned thing keeps crashing on Babypips. Says I need more virtual memory, but adjusting it higher didn’t help. Only babypips crashes, which seems weird.)

I think the problem is that I’m looking for an exit signal on the daily chart. Now I’m changing that and I look for the exit signal on the H4 chart. Many things can happen in 24h.

Yeah… like the EUR this morning. Whoever talked about trading without a Stop Loss in this thread previously… You are suicidal!

I only had 4 pairs with 6 positions open… can you imagine the amount of REKT that would be upon you if you had 20 pairs on an open trade? From now on I will be using 100-180 pip (180 was mentioned previously in this thread) Stop Losses and I will be checking the Economic Calendar for extra volatile news releases. Economic Calendar - Investing.com


The final tally when I decided to close out all my positions… -25% on my account balance. Yikes.

I lost all my gains this AM too. :frowning: Glad it was only play money. It would be a bummer to lose a lot of real money right before Xmas.

Looks like we need to pay attention to the big news events. :33:

Hey guys.
Well, I’m glad I wasn’t in the market. It would’ve been real bad for me. Cause this is how I trade…
I will be in with 15 trades at a time.
Either with the Majors, or Comms. To be specific, here’s the 15 that I will be in…
AUD/USD
GBP/AUD
EUR/AUD
AUD/CHF
AUD/JPY
NZD/USD
GBP/NZD
EUR/NZD
NZD/CHF
NZD/JPY
USD/CAD
GBP/CAD
EUR/CAD
CAD/CHF
CAD/JPY
Now, if I think the Majors (as a whole) is stronger, then all the USD/GBP/EUR/CHF/JPY will be long.
If I think the Comms stronger, then all the AUD/NZD/CAD will be long.
But, those 15 up there are the only pairs I trade. It’s just a matter of which way I think will go.
I have kept stats and watch the flow of the Majors vs. the Comms. So, I will have reasons when I pull the trigger. I had a good first couple days this week. I was long the Comms since Friday, kept them all running into this week. I ended up with around +2,000 pips. Then jumped. Cause I knew things were gonna fly from mid week on. I will stay out till at least the open of next week. I got to see what’s the sentiment on the weekend, well…after NFP.

I’ll get into more details of how I play them later. (Position sizing, entries, exits, etc…)

Mike

What happened to this account? The link no longer works…

Hi Clint:

I am so happy for reading this post now, 2 years after I first visited this thread by 4/20/2014 (I gave you several “like” after reading your posts by that time).

You presented very excellent explanations and analysis of this methodology, and were testing it in a demo, and now I know you are actually using it, and since you are a very intelligent, educated and knowledgeable person, I want to ask you many questions . . .

For now, just the most important ones:

  1. Are you still using the original position sizing rule?

The rule is: the number of units entered = the number of dollars of current account equity.

  1. Do you set TP and SL when enter a position?

Most traders do it. But the original mastergunner methodology didn’t use TP and SL when open a position. However, in one of his posts on 03-15-2015 he said he did use TP and SL on entry now.

  1. Do you consider currency correlations (mastergunner said no)?

For example: when GBP was in down trend last year, were you selling GBP in several pairs (maybe up to 5 or 6 pairs) in the same time?

  1. Do you ignore news as the original methodology suggests?

For instance: will you open USD positions a few hours before NFP?

Or will you move SL to lock profits in USD pairs, before NFP or FOMC?

Finally, Clint, since you are a very intelligent and experienced trader, I think, instead of asking so many questions, it would be better (and we would appreciate it very much) if you could tell us how you are trading this portfolio approach. I am sure you have done many modifications to the original system.

Here is the summary of the original system you presented on 08-06-2013:

[B][I]The MG99 Portfolio Methodology — how it is configured and traded[/I][/B]

• twenty-eight currency pairs are monitored for swing-trading opportunities on a daily basis
• the pairs monitored represent all possible pairings of the 8 majors: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CHF, CAD, and NZD
• the number of pairs monitored may be adjusted up or down to suit the individual trader
• potential swing-trading set-ups, based on developing trends, are identified on daily charts after the close
• only trades in the direction of the trend are considered
• chart analysis is based on price action only (i.e., S/R levels, fibs, candlesticks and candlestick patterns, etc.)
• technical indicators, economic news releases and fundamental analysis are ignored
• positions may be entered in any number of pairs, up to the total number of pairs being monitored
• for each new position entered, the number of units entered = the number of dollars of current account equity
• this way of determining position size implies that, for each position, 100 pips = approximately 1% of account balance
• each position represents roughly 1:1 actual leverage; 28 positions would represent roughly 28:1 overall leverage
• one unit of any pair is assumed to be equivalent to one unit of any other pair, regardless of different notional values
• it is advantageous to use a broker who offers trading in units, rather than in lots or fractions of lots
• correlations (positive or negative) between pairs are not considered
• positions may be entered using market-orders, stop-orders, or limit-orders
• entries do not entail stop-loss or take-profit orders
• SL and/or TP orders may be added during trade management, depending on circumstances
• positions, once entered, may not be added to
• exits generally are handled in a discretionary fashion
• positions may be exited using market-orders, stop-orders, or limit-orders
• a loser is exited (usually within days of entry) when the rationale for the trade is determined to be no longer valid
• a winner is exited when the trend has run its course and has reversed, however long that takes
• swing trading implies that profitable trades typically remain open for weeks
• swing trades are held over weekends
• entries and exits are generally late when measured against swing highs and swing lows
• large numbers of pips frequently are left on the table when winners are exited
• an exit does not trigger an entry in the opposite direction — this is not a stop-and-reverse methodology
• trades are not journaled
• common measures of risk do not apply to portfolios of forex positions
• generally, overall portfolio risk is far less than the sum of the risks in the individual positions
• overall portfolio profit in the range of 5R can be expected

This was the original MG99 methodology.

Now, could you please tell us now how is your portfolio methodology configured currently?

Thank you in advance!

Hi Beijin,

Thanks for your kind words. Here are answers to your questions:

  1. Are you still using the original position sizing rule?

A. Yes, approximately. I use position sizes equal to one micro-lot per pair per $1,000 of equity, rounded off. This is very nearly equal to MG’s one unit per dollar of equity.

When equity grows to a substantial amount, the difference between my method and MG’s method becomes trivial.

  1. Do you set TP and SL when enter a position?

A. SL always, without fail. TP often, but not always.

  1. Do you consider currency correlations (mastergunner said no)?

A. No, I don’t. I realize that this introduces additional risk into many trades, and I accept that additional risk. Ignoring correlations can magnify both profits and losses (in exactly the same way that high leverage magnifies profits and losses). So, careful trade management is essential.

Referring again to question #2 above, stop-losses are always important; but, when correlated pairs are traded, stop-losses are critical.

So, tell me a little about the way you use the MG Portfolio Methodology.

Regards,
Clint

Interesting, i was about to setup a 200 pips stop loss, but i’ve never think about this before.

It’s better to loose 200 pips in one time rather than keep clicking in and out when im looking for the trend where its going with the stop loss 30 pips. Clicking 30 pips stop loss 5 times with undeceive direction.

I have also another stop loss, how about the Fibonacci 50%? from entry price…

Hi again, Beijin

I replied to your first 3 questions, before seeing that you had edited your post and added additional questions.

Your question #4 is easy to answer —

[I]4. Do you ignore news as the original methodology suggests?[/I]

A. I don’t [I]ignore[/I] news. I pay close attention to it, in order to avoid being blindsided by it.

[I]For instance: will you open USD positions a few hours before NFP?[/I]

A. No. The MG99 Methodology is an end-of-day methodology, which means that pairs are evaluated for opening (and possibly for closing) after the New York market close (5 pm New York time) each day.

“A few hours prior to NFP” would be sometime after 5 pm Thursday evening (New York time), not my [I]favorite[/I] time to enter any new position, with the weekend starting in less than 24 hours.

And, the Thursday evening before the first Friday of each month is definitely a risky time to enter, with NFP looming just 15 hours, or so, later.

Generally, I prefer to enter new positions on the first 4 evenings of the week, Sunday through Wednesday.

[I]Or will you move SL to lock profits in USD pairs, before NFP or FOMC?[/I]

A. I have done that. Every position is different, so that decision has to be made on a case-by-case basis.

Shawn (Mastergunner99) gives his positions so much breathing room, that he can ride out the price spikes which frequently occur immediately after one of these releases. And he relies on the fact that almost always, after the dust has settled, price reverts to somewhere near where it was before the release. So, he can simply ignore the whole event.

I prefer to use stops, and normally they are much tighter than any stop Shawn would be comfortable with. So, in my case, price spikes after major news releases can turn modest gains into stopped-out losses. I won’t hesitate to step out of a position before the release, knowing I can step back in after the dust has settled. That’s not strictly kosher according to the MG99 Methodology, but it works for me.

As for your much more general question —

“…instead of asking so many questions, it would be better (and we would appreciate it very much) if you could tell us how you are trading this portfolio approach. I am sure you have done many modifications to the original system.”

— I will try to write something which summarizes how I have combined the MG99 Methodology with The 3 Ducks Trading System. Allow me some time to get that done.

.

Thanks Clint!

You may consider start a thread to teach your methodology (or just to share your experience, if you don’t like to have a “teaching thread”).

Maybe it is better this way, since your approach is very different to MG99 now.

For instance: MG99 ignores the news, you not. And he uses no indicator, you do (3 Ducks moving average).

When I visited this thread 2 years ago, you and MG99 have drifted away from it, so I never participated.

If you start a thread now, I will follow it and will be very active in it.

Just an idea, for your consideration :slight_smile:

I mean if you would open a position few hours before important news or event.

For instant: will you open an AUD position tonight, before RBA rate decision?

But I think the answer is no. Right?

I don’t trade portfolio like MG99 teaches. I read the entire thread, but never tried to test it, because I thought it was not a profitable system. For several reasons:

First: MG99 and you, and almost everyone else (like you said) have left the thread without saying why, I thought this was because you were not getting positive results.

Second, I read some member saying that one of MG99´s follower blew up his MyFxBook account using this methodology.

And most importantly: when MG99 returned by March 2015, he showed his MyFxBook demo, which had very good performance initially. But later the account was having serious drawdown. I don’t remember now, but I think the balance was 15% or 20% down, for several months.

I did admire and respect him, for he kept trading and updating his MyFxBook, despite having negative results for a long time.

But then, when I tried to check the account again, it has been deleted, which made me feel very disappointed.

Now you may ask: why you visit this thread so many times, if you think this methodology is not profitable?

The reason is: because Clint was the most important contributor in this thread, having presented valuable analysis, explanations and opinions about this methodology, my instinct told me there might be something worthy in it. So I kept checking this thread from time to time.

And, thank goodness, finally I learned that this methodology is profitable, Clint is using it (in fact, he even switched from day trading to swing trading by using this methodology).

And the best thing is: he will show us how he dose it!

Thanks again!

I’ve given this a lot of thought, and [I]I’ve decided not to hijack this thread[/I] by distorting the original MG99 Methodology. Discussing how this methodology can be changed, or combined with other techniques, would amount to hijacking the thread — especially if those techniques involve indicators, which violate the basic concept presented in this thread.

Shawn (Mastergunner99) has built this methodology on —

[I][B]finding trend-following swing trades on naked charts[/B][/I]
— and I think we should leave it that way.

The things I have added into the methodology, in my own trading, are not necessary for trading it successfully. In fact, those things could make it more difficult for new traders to master the methodology in its simplest form.

From some of the comments appearing in this thread, it’s apparent that many new traders struggle with (1) identifying trends early enough to capture trend-following opportunities, (2) entering trades at levels which minimize large early draw-downs, and (3) managing open positions to optimize exits.

Those things are basic to successfully navigating [I]individual swing trades,[/I] without regard to any portfolio considerations. I’ve said before, and it bears repeating, that successfully trading [I]a portfolio of swing-trade positions[/I] depends first on being able to successfully trade [I]individual swing-trade positions.[/I]

.

OK. I understand and agree with your rationale (in fact, recall I told you it was just an idea for your consideration).

Thanks for your reply and previous answers to my several questions.

Hi Clint,

I’ve been reading this thread for a while now and I think I know what MG99’s methodology is trying to tell us and it is awesome but just like you said you should master individual trades before actually applying this methodology. You advised to first try to read about the Three Ducks strategy which I believe is great, however, I am not really sure how to apply this together with MG99’s methodology because the actually entry point is at the M5 TF. I think dpip or medisoft did mention something about modifying it to a long term version when they said something about using 10 SMA for D1 and 60 SMA for H4. Can you confirm if you are doing the same approach? or could you at least tell me how you apply the Three Ducks strategy? I think that is the only missing ingredient I need to be able to improve. I think MG99 and all of you guys who contributed in this thread are AMAZING. It is just sad to what a happen a while back when a lot of the people in this thread got wiped out. I believe they missed understand something about MG99 strategy. I would appreciate your comment CLINT or anybody out there who still believe in this method like me.

But be careful, I don’t think there has been any long term evidence that shows MG99’s 20+plus pair portfolio concept can outperform a carefully picked watch list of the most current & active trending pairs.
Can you tell me which currency pairs work for you every time you apply this methodology?

Wow! interesting read

Interesting thread MG

Is it somehow possible to get the picture from this post? Or is it long gone. It is some time ago I know, maybe you’re not active anymore. I have started to read the whole thread, but is certainly not finished yet :slight_smile:

That is the major problem;thread starters disappear when their thread is becoming real 5-star!