Price action of xau/usd (gold)

[B]PRICE ACTION OF XAU/USD (GOLD)[/B]

Hi Gold Traders,

It’s Wibie_G here. I’m an independent trader XAU/USD (Gold). I start this humble thread to journal my technical commentaries on [B]Price Action[/B] ([B]PA[/B]) of the pair in [B]D1 Timeframe[/B]. The PA discussed in this thread mainly refers to Price Level, Price Direction, Price Reversal, and Price Target.

My analysis method will be simple and objective enough. I expect any traders ought to easily understand it. To visually explain my points, I’ll upload print screens of my charts too.

The validity and the success rate of my method has been continuously tested and improved in these past 3 years. I have strong confident in it. As this is a journal thread—not a trading-system one, I won’t specifically discuss about the method. It’ll be discussed in my commentaries on market conditions as they happen.

[B]What I will post here:[/B]
[ul]
[li] My Commentary on PA near [B]Support/Resistance[/B] ([B]S/R[/B]) at D1 Timeframe.
[/li][li] The S/R I look at are: [B]Key Horizontal Levels[/B] and [B]Key Trend Lines.[/B]
[/li][li] The Key Horizontal Levels I look at are: Monthly Pivot Level, Weekly Pivot Level, Previous S/R Level, and Fibonacci Level.
[/li][li] The Key Trend Lines I look at are: EMA 20 days (Short-term Trend), SMA 50 days (Mid-term Trend), and SMA 200 days (Long-term Trend)
[/li][li] My Expectations of Trend Reversals and Targets and their Factual Results.
[/li][li] A typical Expectations looks like this: [I]“If X1 happens, then X2 would likely to happen. If Z1 happens, then Z2 would likely to happen.”[/I]
[/li][li] I will also post whether the Expectations eventually got realized or not (yet). Let’s learn together from them.
[/li][li] I won’t hesitate to retract my previous Expectations if I see a good reason to do so, in light of various reasons related to market or commentaries by others.
[/li][li] If appropriate, I will also discuss in my commentaries Key Fundamental Factors and their potential implications to PA.
[/li][/ul]

[B]What I will not discuss here:[/B]
[ul]
[li] Specific Levels of Open Position, Stop Loss, Take Profit.
[/li][li] I won’t respond to query related to those levels either.
[/li][/ul]

[B]Posting Frequency:[/B]
[ul]
[li] The frequency of my posts will be [U]intermittent[/U]. It’ll depend on when a certain PA occurs as mentioned above.
[/li][li] If you find this thread adding value to your trading, I suggest you to subscribe to it so you’ll be reminded via email when its latest post appears.
[/li][/ul]

[B]Posting Manners:[/B]
[ul]
[li] Please [U]fully comply[/U] with Forum’s Guidance on Posting Ethics as ruled here.
[/li][li] I welcome and respect Different Opinions, but I can speak for everyone that we cherish Courteous Attitude even more; much more.
[/li][li] We all know trading is hard, so let’s make this thread pleasant for everyone. Please [U]avoid the use of condescending tones[/U] at all times.
[/li][li] Please share your opinion in a way that’ll [U]constructively[/U] complement to this thread’s contents.
[/li][li] If you have a different method of market reading than mine, it is okay to share it in this thread once or twice. After that, however, please refrain yourself from forcing your way of thinking here. Let’s leave it at that. If you really wish others to gain insights from your views, opening your own thread on the same is the best way to do it.
[/li][/ul]

EDIT:
[ul]
[li] Jan '15: Adding Fibonacci Levels as one of Key Horizontal Levels I look at.
[/li][/ul]

[I][B]DISCLAIMER:[/B]
This thread is for educational purposes only. My posts in this thread are not advices or suggestions for anyone to take trading positions in live accounts. I will not respond to queries regarding the same. Hence, I cannot be held accountable for your trading profits or losses if you use my commentaries as base for your trades.[/I]

What to expect for next month:

Will Typical Price Action around SMA-50 days rhyme again for GOLD next November '14?


Well, so far we are in a down trend with a targhet of 1211 today or lower in the next days. Once this is completed, we’ll definitely have a big up trend just like the last 2 times when that low of 1183 was hit.

Keep this in mind.

Hi swingsignals,

No one have to keep in mind about anything anyone says, Sir. Price will go to whatever direction it wants to go. We traders can only predict. :wink:

Btw, Gold Price just fell to lowest level in past 4 years to level of $1167. Descending trend may still continue.


Have a nice weekend, all…

Cheers… :44:

Gold fell to never seen before level since 2010 at $1161 breaking a long held support of $1183, and closed at $1173 this week.

Because this is such a historical milestone for the metal, I think it’s fair to seek some fundamental explanations. One of the news that has been spread by main stream media is the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s surprising quantitative-easing policy. Here’s the quote I took from WSJ and the link to its complete article:

The Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced it would boost its bond purchases to ¥80 trillion from the previous target range of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion. The central bank hopes to spur business activity and inflation by purchasing more Japanese government bonds.

In response, gold prices plunged while the dollar neared a seven-year high against the yen and advanced to a two-year high against the euro. Gold prices are benchmarked in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers who fund their purchases with other currencies, limiting their pull in the market.

Read more.

BREAKING:

GOLD just broke its latest support of $1161.
Next Support is at $1086.


Gold had a strong and without reformation descending trend during the recent weeks and could record the bottom price of 1132.099 .According to the strong downfall of price from the top price of 1344.995, it seems that the price is saturation sell area and there is the possibility of price reformation.In weekly time frame with the types of price movements in previous week, hammer candle stick pattern has appeared that warns the formation of a bottom price and the failure of sellers in reaching to the lower prices.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is butterfly harmonic pattern between the top price of 1433.090 and the bottom price of 1132.099 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern.Generally according to the recent strong descending trend until the bottom price of 1132.099 is preserved, there is the potential for price reformation in this chart.

Yesterday, XAUUSD was resisted by its Monthly Pivot of $1195, but is still supported by Weekly Pivot of $1176.
The metal may prepare to dive again.


As I suggested in post #8 , Gold’s Price did dive again.

After price touched SMA 50-day line on Friday (11/21) of last two weeks, Price was strongly supported by our Monthly & Weekly pivots in first 3 days (11/24-26) of last week. But then, it gave in and Price fell deep again. Last week, Price closed at $1166.


Though technically Price could retest $1141 and may be $1130 levels again, all players’ eyes are on the results of Swiss Gold Voting this Sunday (11/30) that would decide future massive demand of Gold bullions in the next 5 years should its majority of people vote for a ‘Yes’. MPs of other countries like France are sounding their opinions to follow suit the Swiss’ referendum. Latest Polling in Swiss suggests the ‘No’ option would win, but we see too many surprises in currency & commodity markets even analysts are still holding their breaths waiting for the population results.

Either way, it’s most likely that we’ll start next week with a considerably wide Price Gap due to the Swiss event. Then, Price would go to the direction of its result for 1 to 4 weeks until other major issues factoring in, like Oil Prices, Russia-Ukraine Tensions, US Economic Recovery, etc. And of course, we have to take into accounts our support and resistance levels as I’ve described in post #1.

Have a nice weekend all, and may God blesses you with plenty of Pips next week.

Cheers,

Wibie_G

Technical Note:
Next Month’s Pivot: $1168
Next Week’s Pivot: $1178

[B]UPDATE:[/B]

[B]Swiss Gold Voting[/B]:
[B]Yes 22.7%[/B] vs [B]No 77.3%[/B]
Detail: Vorlage Nr.� 589�-� Vorl�ufige amtliche Endergebnisse.

As expected, due to the Swiss Results, there’s a Price Gap happening in start of Asian session. In my broker’s time, we start at $1159 while we closed last week at $1166. So about $7 distance. We could expect further bearish direction at least for the rest of this first week of December 2014.

Happy Pip’in & Cheers! :44:
Wibie_G

This week, we’re at the 38.2% retracement like it was back in July’14. We may see GOLD’s FALL again this week or next week, for whatever Fundamental Surprises.


Happy Pip’in & Cheers! :5:
Wibie_G

And, it’s down… :57:


Cheers… :44:

Now, we’ll see General Trend to the upside for GOLD with High Volatility before 50-day SMA crosses over with 200-day SMA.


Cheers… ;):44:

Would the 38.2% Retracement Level be the first stepping stone for GOLD to start moving higher…?


Cheers… :wink: :44:

Would $1200 be the bounce or break level for GOLD?


Cheers…

,What I will not discuss here:
Specific Levels of Open Position, Stop Loss, Take Profit.,

Stop Loss?
Take Profit?

Please Tradecruz just stop…

Looks like the bouncing from the level I mentioned in post #15 is happening with the D1 candle formed as a possible Pin Bar. This indicates a reversal pattern to the upside is forming. If today’s candle is closed above $1234 (i.e. High Level of February-17th Candle), it would confirm it. We’ll see.

Similar and recent valid Pin Bar can be seen in the January-2nd Candle.


Here’re textbook patterns of valid bearish & bullish Pin Bars:


Cheeers… :44:

Thank you Tradegun for your concern. :5:

Just report his posts to Admin and leave the troll alone. Get provoked will only get him excited to provoke more.

The potential Pin Bar didn’t get validated yesterday. Remembering how Gold behaves when it wants to go up, the Bears and the Bulls usually fight fiercely first before the metal decides to take off.


You can see the fight (read; whipsaw moves) in H1 timeframe; it keeps happening again and again also in the past. Typically, the fight happens along the H1’s 50 SMA Line for few days until the Line is close enough to H1’s 200 SMA Line before it starts to go up. Similar behaviour happens also for the Bearish movement.