I then felt I needed more confirmation and decided to look at the price of oil. As we know, oil and USD/CAD have a negative corelation.
and here’s a daily chart
If my weekly wave count is correct, we should be seeing wave 5 moving down. If my daily count is correct, we should at least see some kind of correction. Regardless of which one is right, Oil should be moving down, it’s just a question of how much. The combination of a potential down-move in oil, and the divergence between price and stochastics in USDCAD, tells me it’s time to go long on USDCAD sometime next week.
Furthermore, on the weekly chart for USDCAD, we can see it is sitting right at a support/resistance zone.
With all this being said, I will wait for some kind of confirmation. I’m considering using a break below 1.24575 as my invalidation point. Still thinking about take profit levels.
Opinions? is this a good analysis? I’m pretty new to this stuff, so I’m still learning
Wall Street needs and wants oil at $50, they will cut rig counts and whatever other tactics to get it there. As that happens USD/CAD will continue to fall. It’s not simple, there are a lot of players with different motives. USD/CAD goes up, oil is pushed down. USD/CAD goes down, oil goes up. This does not always happen though.
[QUOTE=“disthedat;764232”]Yeah, the question is how long? I think it will eventually drop to 1.2 and will stay there for couple of months[/QUOTE]
I see the weaknesses in usd because of resistance of previous high , but i still let go to run higher
Depends on the oil really, but Yeah it might go up tmrw, cause the fire in Alberta. But eventually comes down as Canada is enjoying it and has already prepared for it. The minimum wage was raised from 12 to somewhere around 13 per hour. Also there is a budget deficit, it all somehow shows canada is getting ready for a full year low USD/CAD, in any case though, this is all speculation.
I stick with my prediction (it’s a monthly prediction) so I don’t know if it goes down or up in the coming days really. I expect it to lower though tomorrow.
