Last night I sat up thinking about the USD/CAD, and came up with this analysis. I'm still learning, so please tell me your opinions .
Firstly, I looked at the stochastics oscillator and found this:
I then felt I needed more confirmation and decided to look at the price of oil. As we know, oil and USD/CAD have a negative corelation.
and here's a daily chart
If my weekly wave count is correct, we should be seeing wave 5 moving down. If my daily count is correct, we should at least see some kind of correction. Regardless of which one is right, Oil should be moving down, it's just a question of how much. The combination of a potential down-move in oil, and the divergence between price and stochastics in USDCAD, tells me it's time to go long on USDCAD sometime next week.
Furthermore, on the weekly chart for USDCAD, we can see it is sitting right at a support/resistance zone.
With all this being said, I will wait for some kind of confirmation. I'm considering using a break below 1.24575 as my invalidation point. Still thinking about take profit levels.
Opinions? is this a good analysis? I'm pretty new to this stuff, so I'm still learning
Wall Street needs and wants oil at $50, they will cut rig counts and whatever other tactics to get it there. As that happens USD/CAD will continue to fall. It's not simple, there are a lot of players with different motives. USD/CAD goes up, oil is pushed down. USD/CAD goes down, oil goes up. This does not always happen though.